Anti-migration bill fails German Bundestag after Merkel denounces CDU cooperation with AfD and the left break out in widespread protests

Also open thread.

Today, the Influx Limitation Act – a bill to limit migration to Germany, particularly by restricting family reunification provisions for those with “subsidiary protection” – failed to pass the German Bundestag.

I spent all day covering the debate on Twitter, and I am exhausted out of my mind. After the historic collapse of the cordon sanitaire on Wednesday, Angela Merkel stirred herself from retirement to issue an encyclical condemning the tacit cooperation between the CDU and AfD. There ensued widespread protests against the CDU by leftist activist groups. Last night the disorder grew so great that CDU headquarters in Berlin had to be evacuated; today, Antifa even stormed and briefly occupied CDU offices in Hannover. In Leipzig, thousands gathered on the Marktplatz, screaming “all of Leipzig hates the CDU”:

This mattered: When debate opened in the Bundestag this morning, Friedrich Merz’s majority for the Influx Limitation Act was already in danger. There were delays and last-minute discussions with the Greens and the Social Democrats; the left parties ultimately refused to negotiate with the CDU or CSU at all, unless Merz would apologise for his grave misdeeds on Wednesday. It was an impossible condition, and an excuse to force the Union parties to vote with AfD yet again.

There followed hours of parliamentary debate. If you want the specifics, it’s all in my Twitter feed. The centre-right Union parties accused the Greens and SPD of intransigence, and of forcing them to use AfD votes to solve the migration problem. The Greens and the SPD whined ceaselessly about the unforgivable CDU cooperation with the evil Nazi Fascist Hitler Party. In a particularly unhinged moment, SPD faction leader Rolf Mützenich took the floor and addressed Merz directly: “Your sin will stay with you forever,” he said. “But together we can still close the gates of hell. You have to rebuild the cordon sanitaire! You must return to the democratic centre!”

Merz in his own statements said little worth noting. He did, however, return fire at Merkel. “The CDU,” he said, “bears significant responsibility for the fact that since 2017 there has been a faction in this Bundestag called Alternative für Deutschland. We bear a great deal of the responsibility for that.” The break of present CDU leadership with Angela Merkel’s policies – until now always officially denied and papered over – is now out in the open.

As I said, the bill failed in the end, with 349 votes against and 338 in favour. Eleven CDU Merkelians refused to vote, and there were substantial defections from the ranks of the market-liberal FDP as well.

The future is hard to see from here, but I have two observations:

1) The Union parties have opened a powerful rift between themselves and the left. The Social Democrats and the Greens refused to negotiate because they prefer to make a campaign issue out of the political perfidy of the Union parties. If they campaign hard enough on this point, you have to wonder what coalitions will even be possible after the elections. Green and SPD activists are already at the barricades, and you don’t just turn something like that off. Protests against the CDU are planned across Germany throughout this weekend, and they’ll probably continue for some time. On the other hand, the left won today, and magnanimity is easier after victory. It is also in their interests to normalise relations. Then again, it was also in their interests (particularly in the interests of the Social Democrats) to join the CDU in passing the Influx Limitation Act, and they didn’t do that.

2) Obviously, this failure has helped neither CDU Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz nor his party. Merz has failed to deliver on his promises to change German migration policy, he has done a lot to legitimise his mortal enemies in the AfD, and as I said in 1) the left are also up in arms against him. Some have predicted that Merz might be forced out in a party coup, but I don’t think that’s likely now. It might happen after the elections, though, particularly if the CDU does very poorly. The polls have stabilised now for some weeks with the CDU and CSU claiming around 30% support, and AfD around 20%. There is a sense that most voters have made up their minds and it’s possible none of this has a big impact on the coming election. In the longer term, however, AfD is set to be the strongest party in Germany. Mass migration has become something like a bizarre religious sacrament for the left, something they can never abandon, even as the disorder and dysfunction it entails drives ever more voters to the right.

A final note. Spotted on Robert Habeck’s desk in the Bundestag today was a copy of Angela Merkel’s biography:

Now I must find some food and try to relax. I apologise for the rough posting schedule this week; it’s been a lot of news all at once, and blogs are less-than-ideal media for covering stories that develop over hours, like parliamentary bowel movements. Now I understand why journalists like to tweet so much.