Brandenburg Election: The federal government teeters on the edge of collapse, the SPD pull off a pyrrhic victory with the help of confused pensioners, the AfD win another blocking minority

Yesterday, Brandenburg elected a new state parliament. This was the last of the three East German elections that have driven our political establishment to the limits of their sanity and also of their resources.

Going into the vote, our rulers’ goal, above all, was to stop Alternative für Deutschland from logging another win. By hook or by crook, the evil fascists of the AfD had to come in second, so that the serving SPD Minister President of Brandenberg, Dietmar Woidke, could form some manner of drab and ineffective government and proceed as before with whatever it is that Democracy is supposed to be. In this, the forces of all that is incapable, inclusive and sexually deviant won a strange half-victory, foisting upon the good (if heavily propagandised) people of Brandenburg a bizarre political constellation, the likes of which we have never seen before. The reigning consensus is coming apart at the seams, and the weirdness is just beginning.

The only really good result for the establishment is that the SPD indeed landed narrowly in first place, leading the scoreboard with 30.9% of the vote and 32 seats in the Landtag. Assuming they can form a government, they’ll continue their long rule of Brandenburg. Close on the heels of the SPD is Alternative für Deutschland, with 29.2% of the vote and 30 seats. Only two other parties made it over the 5% hurdle for representation. These are the left-populist Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, with 13.5% of the vote and 14 seats; and the CDU, with a deeply humiliating 12.1% of the vote and 12 seats.

As in Thüringen, the big losers are the Greens and the FDP. Both of these parties rule at the federal level, and their complicity in the chaotic lunacy of Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” government has made them toxic for vast swathes of the electorate. The Greens are out of the Landtag in Brandenburg, having won only 4.1% of the vote, while the market-liberal FDP could not even win the favour of 1% of Brandenburg voters.

There are three points to make about these results:

1) The federal government is once again teetering on the edge of collapse: It is dangerous to forecast the end of Scholz’s coalition because it consists of dumb careerists who will in all likelihood cling to power until it is pried from their fat, sweaty hands, but they have never been so vulnerable as now. Continued association with the present government may drive the FDP not merely into irrelevance in East Germany, but into eclipse nationwide. Party chairman Christian Lindner says his party faces an “autumn of decisions” following their Brandenburg drubbing. Vice-chairman Wolfgang Kubicki had harsher words last night in an interview with Welt:

“There are completely different views on how to get the economy back on its feet and restore our competitiveness [within the Scholz SPD/Green/FDP coalition]. And either we manage to find a reasonable common denominator here in the next two to three weeks, or it no longer makes sense for the Free Democrats to continue participating in this coalition” …

There is no point in trying to sugarcoat the FDP’s results in the state elections in Thüringen, Saxony and now Brandenburg. Struggling to achieve 1% of the vote three times in a row means “that the Free Democrats have been marginalised.” … Kubicki also spoke of the Greens’ poor performance and said: “People are done with the traffic light coalition.” …

He added: “Decisions will be made this autumn, and I don’t think that with the current performance, this coalition will still be in place by Christmas.”

2) The Social Democrats “won” in the worst way possible. At first glance, the Social Democrats appear to have pulled off a surprising victory in Brandenburg. They’ve been losing voter share steadily since the mid-1990s, but yesterday they not only came out on top, but also added nearly five percentage points to their 2019 showing. Not for nothing, they also overtook the AfD, which had dominated Brandenburg polling since early 2023.

Only when you look at the details, do you begin to understand how this victory was achieved, and what a farce it is. The SPD are so unpopular at the national level, that our SPD Chancellor Scholz made himself all but invisible throughout the campaign so as not scare away voters. Brandenburg’s Minister President Woidke, meanwhile, carefully distanced himself from the sins of the national SPD. Even that wouldn’t have been enough, had the other parties not supported the SPD in Brandenburg purely for the purposes of preventing an AfD victory. Thus the CDU Minister President of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, came close to outright endorsing Woidke and the Brandenburg SPD in the days before the vote. As the populist resistance against the political elite grows, we see that the establishment parties increasingly act not as rivals but in unison, as if they were merely different factions of the same party.

As for the SPD voters? An astounding 75% of them say they cast their ballot for the Social Democrats not out of political conviction, but merely to prevent an AfD victory. The Social Democrats lost with everyone under 60 years old, and truly dominated only in the 70+ demographic. The AfD show an opposite pattern, emerging as the clear favourite of working-age voters between 16 and 44. The future is not with the cartel parties, and before long their strategic manoeuvres will no longer be mathematically possible.

3) More state-level coalition chaos: The last-place finish of the Brandenburg CDU, which as we have seen arose from internal coordination among the cartel parties to shut out the AfD, has awkward consequences. Foremost among them is that the CDU, with a mere 12 seats, cannot offer the 32-seat SPD a governing majority. Since nobody will work with AfD, the Brandenburg SPD has no choice but to deal the the left-populist Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).

Early press statements from both the BSW and the CDU make it sound like neither of them are very enthusiastic about governing with the Social Democrats. The BSW said they won’t enter coalition negotiations with the SPD until the Social Democrats talk with the CDU. The CDU, for their part, said they won’t talk with the SPD at all, because the voters have given them “no mandate.” When the dancing is done, it is clear the SPD will have to strike some kind of agreement with the BSW, and the latter will not make it easy. The top BSW candidate in Brandenburg, Robert Crumbach, has said that any government it joins must “speak out very clearly against the stationing of US missiles in Germany” and also make a clear statement in favour of peace in Ukraine.

And I have left the cherry on top for the very end: The CDU sacrificed themselves and shipped all their voters left to preserve the SPD-led government of Brandenburg against the rising AfD. Now the BSW will get to act as kingmakers and the Brandenburg SPD will probably have to say various practically meaningless but symbolically important and internally humiliating things about the idiocy of the war in Ukraine, just to prevent coalition chaos. They did all of that, and still they will have to work with the AfD, because as in Thüringen the AfD have achieved with their 30 seats a so-called blocking minority. Anything that requires a two-thirds majority of the Landtag to pass, will require AfD votes, and they’ll be able to extract a price for their cooperation.

Good job retards, I hope it was worth it.