I’m working on a longer piece for tomorrow, but in the meantime, perhaps you’ll find the latest installment of Bob Wachter’s profoundly ridiculous Covid Chronicles amusing.
Bob Wachter@Bob_Wachter
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 1038
Some folks continue asking what I'm doing viz Covid behavior...
Answer: I'm changing my behavior. In the Bay Area, I'm now OK with indoor dining & removing my mask for small group gatherings.
I haven't changed, the risk has. Here's how: (1/25)
7:41 PM · Jan 19, 2023
99 Reposts · 993 Likes
Remember as you read it that Dr. Wachter is a heavily decorated, leading academic:
Bob Wachter@Bob_Wachter
Where I'm coming from:
1) I'm 65 & haven't had Covid
2) I want to live as fully as I can, but am comfortable taking reasonable steps to avoid infection
3) I'm fully vaxxed & had bivalent in Sept
4) My main fear is Long Covid, which I peg at ~5% probability per Covid case. (3/25)
7:41 PM · Jan 19, 2023
7 Reposts · 198 Likes
He believes case rates are still even remotely meaningful:
Bob Wachter@Bob_Wachter
As I've described https://t.co/ciyymT1Fgl , this leads me to being comfortable indoors without a mask when the effective case rate is <10/100K/d in my region. This # is based on my own risk tolerance & risk factors. Some people may choose to accept more risk, others less.(4/25)
Bob Wachter @Bob_Wachter
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 1013
As we enter Covid Year 3, it’s clear we’ll be in our current predicament for the foreseeable future. This means we all need to find our own method to weigh & mitigate risks.
Today I’ll describe my “50% Rule” & how it governs my choices. (1/25)
7:41 PM · Jan 19, 2023
4 Reposts · 100 Likes
I’m reasonably sure that semi-professional Covid botherers like Eric Feigl-Ding are doing a bit, but I fear Prof. Dr. Wachter has just totally lost his mind:
Bob Wachter@Bob_Wachter
Dining:
I'm having dinner indoors w/ wife & kids tonight in SF.
But we're seeing older friends in Palm Springs this weekend: we'll eat outdoors & test before we arrive. Ditto when I visit my 87 year old mom in FL next month (case rate in FL is twice CA's, & going up). (19/25)
7:41 PM · Jan 19, 2023
6 Reposts · 96 Likes
He’s going to be masking in public literally until he dies:
Bob Wachter@Bob_Wachter
Public transit, theaters, other large gatherings:
Plan to wear a mask (always a KN95; why not wear a good mask if you're going to mask?), likely forever. I'm comfortable taking it off briefly to eat on a long flight, but will try to keep it on when I can.(20/25)
7:41 PM · Jan 19, 2023
10 Reposts · 160 Likes
And this:
Bob Wachter@Bob_Wachter
Small indoor gatherings:
Poker – I'm now comfy playing with a small, vaccinated group (n=8) without testing. I'll lobby (till they throw me out) to keep the doors/windows open during the game.
I'll do the same with other small indoor gatherings (eg, friends at the house).(21/25)
7:41 PM · Jan 19, 2023
2 Reposts · 98 Likes
In coming years, lingering hysteroids like Wachter will form their own class of socially obnoxious, demanding people – sort of like vegans, but massively worse, because they’ll never let you close the windows.
We have to make masking socially unacceptable. I'm thinking of posters outside the grocery that look official and say: "Afraid to take off the mask?" and then refers to local mental health provider w/ phone number. Maybe a strategy for springtime when everyone feels more confident.
"3) I'm fully vaxxed and had bivalent in Sept"
Red flag warning-- got the good 'ole 8 mouse bivalent the second it was available. In the future, this should be used as a way to disqualify people from any serious position.
Also, putting (n=x) in your tweet about social gatherings is a sure mark of a brilliant scientist and makes anything you write at least 332.55% more sciency.