Ugh. I hate to see the Greens having done so well. Germany needs to be quit of that poison ideology. Well, OK, the entire *world* does, but Germany is *really* at the precipice of the industrial cliff. "Green" is a luxury ideology Germany just can't afford any longer.
Gods, that map. Just looking at it, with no knowledge of the whole "firewall" thing, it would seem brutally obvious who would be making up the coalition government. That it will instead be completely different from the obvious black and blue option is a travesty in any place that proclaims itself a "democracy". Hell, it would be a travesty in many places that don't.
> The CDU and the SPD together will have only a very small majority of 13 seats, and there will be an ever-present danger that on crucial votes some representatives of one party or the other might defect, causing bills to pass with AfD support.
So... together, they only have 44.93% of the vote. Who will be making up the rest of their coalition? I mean, as much as I'd prefer to see black and blue there, even that would only have 49.32% of the vote. Is there some measure of disconnect between precise vote percentages, and actual representative count in the Bundestag?
Also regional, minority parties, namely SSW. So I guess their barrier to entry was 1/630th of the total vote. They only compete in Schleswig-Holstein. So SSW has one seat in parliament. If they had received 0.32% then 2 seats, and so forth.
Thanks for the link! The allocation seems quite complicated from an American perspective. I see that the German system gives a different result than the simpler constituency-only / first-past-the-post system. If that were the system, the CDU/CSU party would have 182 votes out of 276, and there would be less dilution of legislative decisions. Also, the regional disparity in representation might be greater.
However, it appears that the allocation system is intended to produce coalition governments and lack of legislative accountability. But in America we don't have much legislative accountability since most seats in our parliament are "safe".
Even though SPD + CDU/CSU only commanded ~44% of the vote in absolute percentages, they get proportionally more of seats because it‘s a winner-take-more system as a consequence of the fact that parties that do not meet the 5% threshold get no seats at all.
Hitler probably got a vote somewhere on a write-in.
I’m just saying that the Germans are all screaming about saving Democracy by trying to shut down AfD, but then they say if you don’t get 5% you get no voice…
Apparently CDU+SPD got a majority of seats in the new (smaller) Bundestag (I recall a new total of 630 seats). But it's a small majority. I guess, as someone says, due to some parties being below 5%.
Grok (Ai on X) explained it to me. I guess accurately.
The US might but the hyperbolic ventilation about Trump fits directly into the same opposition that faces the AfD. I hope he is successful because that will hopefully lead to some introspection all over the world. Adult leadership has long left western democracies and now we're left with struggle politics masquerading as fighting for democracy against an imagined Hitler.
We can't seem to kick the left to the curb no matter how noxious and toxic they are to the economy and civil liberties.
Here in Canada, the left-far-left brigade of the NDP-Green-Liberal parties still miraculously, bafflingly and preposterously do well or at least continue to garner decent support. The Liberal-NDP sank Canada badly and yet the Liberals continue to maintain decent enough support. We need a massive shift to the right just to bring us back to the centre.
Right-leaning Canadians look on with envy at what's happening in the States with Trump.
As of now the hatred of Trump is leading to a significant rebound in support for the dreaded NDP/Liberal coalition. If Canadians are stupid enough to vote for another Liberal/NDP coalition government, just because of the hatred of one man, who at best is trolling. And at worst will force them to actually make sound economic decisions, like building their own pipelines that don't rely on going through the US, or signing sound economic deals with allies, outside of the US, that exploit the significant natural resources that the country has and diversifies the client base. They will only have themselves to blame when the welfare state falls apart.
I read that over the weekend an old man died after spending 11 hrs in an emergency room waiting for a doctor to see him, something that's becoming a regular occurrence. Canadians need to wake up, otherwise they will be on the road to managed decline just like Germany. A country as resource rich as Canada is, should not have lower GDP per Capita than the poorest state in the Union.
They ARE basing their decision on 'fighting Trump'. It's asinine and shows a lack of maturity. And it's not just the left. Even the Conservatives under Poilievre are falling for this silly faux-patriotic propaganda. Worse, they're ignoring the fact China making Canada a colony. It's like e said in his article. Errors only radicalize the left further. They won't respond by adjusting their messaging they will double down.Canadians are flirting with not punishing the Liberal/NDP for what they did because of their hyperbolic fear of Trump. "He's a convicted felon!" What Trump proposes for Canada is win-win. What the Liberals propose is lose-lose.
Depends on what you mean by cheating? China's United Front is still prominent in mostly the Liberal party. Their officials can still be spotted at campaign rallies including Mark Carney. So, clearly something's not right.
Everyone knows there's a huge China problem. But Canada is like a deer staring at headlights about to be hit by a Mac truck. It doesn't know what to do since it's been so complacent it became complicit by pure inaction.
There are so many ways that cheating can go on… esp. with voting machines, early voting, extra ballots magically appearing from under tables 🙄, mules, dead people voting, inaccurate voter rolls, zombie/ghost voters, etc. And that is just a few ways that I can think of off the top of my head…😑
It’s just horrible here in the USA about the cheating in elections… 💩💩💩
I was just wondering if it’s similar in other countries… 🤔😬
Up until Trudeau, Elections Canada ran a smooth, tight ship I find. Much less room to rig and cheat. Now, I'm not so sure. We have voter ID and it's still old school where you physically cast a ballot and they manually count them. which makes it harder still. Some ridings in urban centres have automated. It's not like the U.S. I'm sure there's some games being played though. But much harder to cheat than the U.S. I think. But with the Liberals taking notes from the DNC very closely, who knows anymore?
Nothing new under the sun… Rigging elections is as old as elections have been around. 😑
Isn’t it interesting how the DNC here in America all of a sudden is low in cash. I wonder if they were getting all of their money from places like USAID… ? 🤨
Yeah well we need to keep our foot on the Lefts neck in the US. No mercy.
Did you see what happened in Chicago today? They let a hardened illegal go just because of their ideology.
Inconceivable madness. This gang-connected illegal immigrant has already been ordered deported by a judge. He's already been arrested for additional crimes. He's suspected of involvement in multiple homicides and rapes, and he stands charged with kidnapping and sexually assaulting a woman.
Despite all of that, Chicago officials won't play ball with the feds to get this man removed from the country because he's been gifted the Very Special Protected Privilege of being a criminal alien. If that isn't bad enough, in spite of his rap sheet, city authorities aren't even holding him behind bars as he awaits trial for kidnapping and sexual assault.
Think about how insane this is:
The Chicago system is protecting this man from the deportation order already levied against him, even after he's allegedly committed numerous charged and suspected violent felonies -- and as they let him walk free awaiting his latest court proceedings, they've told him to surrender his guns and keep his distance from the victim of his latest attack....oh yeah that's really going to stop this animal.
I sometimes try to figure out the logic of all their craziness with illegal alien criminals and sanctuary cities, and all I can come up with is two possibilities: first, they themselves feel they are and will continue to be immune from personal involvement with such criminals because they are so protected, and second, as Marxists they see this as vital to creating the societal chaos that Marxism demands.
It seems to me the second possibility is what is going on across all of Western civilization. This chaos is designed to destroy us. I don’t really think that’s a good plan but that’s how they roll.
Today, Connecticut just released their "cannibal," a man who hacked a victim to death with an ax, and then ate his brain and eyeball. Sentenced to 60 years in a mental institution, he's being released after 14 because he's doing really well ("demonstrated long-term stability"). He claims his cravings have disappeared, and has been given meds to stabilize him. He has promised the state that if he feels his cravings return, he will be sure to turn himself back in.
he should consider fulfilling his cravings for offal by going to Mexican restaurants on the weekends, many of them have brains and other stuff like that. (shoulder shrug emoji)
I belive it was last month, that crazy homeless dude that pushed an elderly man onto the NYC subway tracks, resulting in that mans death, has had his sentence reduced recently and will be released on some arcane law that's never been used, by the very same corrupt prosecutor that is trying to lynch Penny for doing the right thing.
Complete inversion of Penny's incident. Penny is a hero and they tried to destroy his life.
The ONLY thing Penny did wrong was to talk to the police without an attorney present.
Once an illegal has been ordered deported by an administrative judge FOR ANY REASON (e.g. simply that he has no right to remain), and any appeals have been exhausted, he can just be removed.
Whether or not he was CONVICTED of any suspected felonies is neither here nor there. The main basis for a deportation order is simply that the illegal is "out of status," i.e. he has no current right to remain in the U.S.
There is no good reason to waste a million dollars to try a gang-affiliated suspect for felonies, and then have him locked up for years at public expense, and THEN re-initiate deportation proceedings again.
I said alleged and suspected. And yes he should get due process. Even Jeffrey Dahmer deserved that and I would die for his right...because they're ares as well.
That said, this man needs to be shipped back immediately.
I guess the self-flagellation will continue until morale collapses entirely amongst the traditional voters and there's an unquenchable quest for fire.
We could not have had Trump Redux and improved if we hadn't had the horror regime of Biden which was really George W. Bush's fifth term, and we only managed to get Trump in the first place because the Democrats ran Hillary. I hope Germany gets smarter faster.
It seems to be a generational thing. The old vote for the traditional parties (CDU, SPD), and they die, the AfD and also Die Linke will become more powerful.
The German system is build to change only slowly, and its main objective at this point is to provide a comfortable retirement and old age for the boomer generation.
Living in Belgium and Germany as an American Expat, it seems to me, that many European parties are for their party and not for their constituents. They do what they have to do to stay in power. They do not do what it takes to make their country powerful. If it were not for the wrangling of the unlikely yet very smart and successful people that Trump teamed up with (with honestly, no real party alignment) he may not have won. Many European countries need to put aside the idea of a party (as did Trump and I'm not a fan of Trump) and make alliances to save their country.
Yes, the party system is entrenched in Europe, and very seldom does someone break out of it. Here in Germany the parties seem to activly select against any charsimatic leader; Scholz and Merkel were extremely bland, Merz is as well.
I think everyone is over thinking. One side of the country still has memories of what living under Communist/Socialists in East Germany was all about and the other side wants to go full commie. I get my European brothers and sisters are not able to respond out of fear of commie reprisals, stay strong.
This is the first time I've seen it. I loathe George W. Bush, by the way. The USA has had quite a string of terrible presidents, including GWB, Obama and especially "Joe Biden," in recent decades. I remember reading in Harper's in winter of 2000 an expose on the life and failures of drunkard GWB. "There's no way his candidacy can proceed after this!," I naively pronounced. But under his presidency, the USA launched the 21st century on terrible footing. And it's been mostly downhill from there, obviously.
My two votes for Obama join every other vote I've ever taken, except for one, that I have painfully regretted afterwards. In all those cases--rather few altogether over my lifetime but still--I ought to have just stayed home.
And a few years ago at one of those state funerals, with Michelle draping herself all cuddly around W. and Clinton and Obama there chummy as can be, that it all became so nakedly clear that it was a slap in the face to all of us.
If not for all our loved ones killed or maimed by the vax, or who died alone and could not even be commemorated properly after, and a generation of children stunted, etc. etc. etc. I'd say it was worth the cost we paid to get to this moment for which I whored out my integrity for the sake of my nation and continue to feel all sparkly about.
But the price was unbearable though we keep having to bear it. Though it's true that when PA was called, on Nov. 5, it was like the abscess around my heart was lanced and cleansed. I didn't think I could feel so happy again, so soon after all the anguish.
That was George Carlin's position: "Don't blame me -- I didn't vote!"
There have been many signs over the decades that the partisan duopoly has merely been laughing at us all, including that celebrated marriage between top George H.W. Bush campaign adviser Mary Matalin and top Bill Clinton adviser James Carville. If either actually believed anything at all, they could not have coupled up.
I also remember seeing a photo shot in Paris where Hillary Clinton's aide Huma Abedin was depicted socializing in a private home with George W. Bush's daughter's.
Going back to George Carlin, "It's a big club, and you ain't in it!"
Oh! And then there was that photo of Hillary Clinton laughing effusively at a joke that had just been told by Donald J. Trump at the reception after his marriage to Melania.
Who goes to the wedding of "literally Hitler" and laughs at his bon mots at the reception?!! Well, somebody who doesn't actually find him objectionable in the slightest.
It's a charade, a farce.
Over the decades, I've voted for quite a grab bag of different presidential candidates, including Reagan and Nader.
I sat out only the 2004 one; it just didn't seem worth my bother.
And I understand your feeling after last fall's election; I felt like I could breathe again.
A family member is stationed in Germany rand eports that the work ethic is dismal. This was surprising as my 'Germanesque' relatives were quite hard-working. Under Merkel, the repeated narratives was how but for Germany, the continent would fall because of the lazy Southern Europeans. Has it fallen? And if so, who will it buzz to help get up again? Also, what is up with Western Germany that they aren't curious why their brothers and sisters who had been occupied by the USSR are taking a different path?
The country is in a generalized depression (psychological as much as economic). For large swathes of society, indeed across most of the ~ €2500 to €7500 pay range that covers 90% of employees, the tax and benefits system is set up such that you see very little of any increase in pay, so there is no incentive to get promoted, especially not if that involves any risk, like taking on more responsibility, or in particular moving to another employer.
Huge increases in minimum wage have caused "wage compression" so the incentive to better oneself at the very crucial bottom of that scale is totally nonexistent. Likewise this has caused everything to go up in price. Food is easily twice as expensive on average as 5 years ago.
Lots of professionals (ahem) are stuck in dead end jobs waiting to be fired (generous settlement) after which they will take a year off on generous unemployment benefits.
Meanwhile everyone can see the country crumbling, both infrastructure and society. It doesn't matter what you do, how much extra effort you make, the state takes most of it and pisses it away.
Oh, and these people still vote for the old parties.
The last chancellor who did anything for the economy was Schröder, and the Ampel came along 20 years later and undid the most effective part of his reforms.
So the renowned hardworking Germans are now hardly working? My brother is an automotive junky. He said German car manufacturers will be imploding with layoffs. I had thought it was their forced green initiatives but he said the quality is down. I do know my last leased Mercedes was a dud but I chalked it up as a one off. Any thoughts? I wish no economic disaster on any country, and I hope they make a u-boat turn fast.
Yes. Look up the rates of ‘sick’ leave. It’s high when compared to peer nations and I have heard personal anecdotes confirming the data. Interesting you mention Mercedes as iirc one of their execs recently commented on this issue (although frankly I doubt it had any direct impact on your car).
(Sorry if all my comments appear to be just dumb sucking-up but it's so rare nowadays to find commenters who know what they're talking about and want to produce intellectually quality work: they deserve gratitude)
hey eugyppius, a couple years ago Geert Wilders won the popular vote outright and still wasn't able to form a coalition without his party watering down its message. Could you see something similar happening to AfD in future, even if they win a plurality?
certainly if and when the AfD enter government, they'll be compelled to compromise on various points, and they'll disappoint many of their activists. their exclusion is the primary cause of their political discipline. I'd expect their Euro and NATO scepticism to be the first casualties.
as long as there are no concessions on migration i could totally live with that. thanks for your reply, I'm no JD Vance but I'm glad you answered my question.
Geert Wilders' PVV indeed opted for focusing on migration when they joined the current Dutch government coalition.
Unfortunately, the PVV migration minister Marjolein Faber produces funny quotes like "I am policy" but not much actual policy.
The focus on migration during the government formation initially worked out well with the PVV going up in the polls, but they are now sliding down due to the lack of results (they are already below the election result).
That's why I think the firewall makes them stronger in some ways. AfD has already had a massive influence on the policies of the old parties. Everyone tries to act tough on immigration now. With little result, sure, but I'm not convinced AfD would be significantly more effective, and AfD as a minor party in a coalition with CDU/CSU most likely wouldn't. I'm not a fan of AfD but still, I'd like to see them in power just to get a chance of proving themselves.
On the other hand, I think they have an important role as the only real opposition. A problem with the German federal system is that even parties who are in the opposition nationally typically form coalitions with government parties on the state level. The Left for example could have made, in an alternative universe, for a good second opposition in the Covid years. Lockdowns and mandates affected the poorest the most, causing people to lose their job and forcing single mothers to homeschool their children aren't classical left-wing policies. But the political reality is in coalitions with SPD and Greens at the state level, so they are in some way part of the political establishment and it would come at a high price to act as principled as AfD could from behind the firewall.
The cordon sanitaire in the Netherlands never was nearly as insane as the German Brandmauer though (at least not since the murder of Pim Fortuyn). In the Netherlands, nobody cares whether decisive votes are cast by radical members of parliament. Only their inclusion in a government coalition is sensitive.
That’s a different topic and is missing the point. He can’t do what he wanted, since he had to form a coalition. Western liberal democracy is a sham. He would be running into the exact same issue if he wasn’t a Zionist. He (or anyone else) would not be any more effective either way. Because the system is a sham.
The eastern parts depend on the West, they are poor and generate no income. I pay a special tax of about 2000 EUR/year nominally dedicated to build up the Eastern states.
The part tat would make sense to secede is Bavaria, where eugyppius comes from. This is where BMW, Audi, etc. are.
If that were per se true, then the term "political economy" would not have much meaning. My observation is that when the people in societies give up on adherence to "love thy neighbor" religious precepts - solely for the sake of adhering to religious beliefs - the health of the economy will play an outsized role in how people behave toward others and govern themselves.
The environment creates a medium for the creation of humans socializing, ie. hunter-gatherers collectivizing to move from small tribes to villages to towns etc.
Then, a collection of humans organize further and create the conditions for trade using a variety of items as forms of currency.
"the health of the economy will play an outsized role in how people behave toward others and govern themselves."
Like Ukraine?
Like Israel?
Like the U$A?
The "the health of the economy will play" absolutely zero on the behaviour of people! There is plenty of money in the system but people in power are very greedy and push through mis-education and disinformation conditions for the decline of people's future's.
Based on that map and coming in second at 20%, why is the AFD not the Official Opposition to the CDU/SDU? Are parties forced to form coalitions, is that Representational Gov’t? I think Coalitions make governing next to impossible because no one Party is able to make a decision and run with it. I probably misunderstand how it works so will study up!
Seems having lived under "democratic socialism" is an effective inoculation against it.
Let's see how the CDU and SPD handles Germany going into a recession, possibly a really deep one. Also, note that the Merkel years and Ampelkoalition has hurt Germany of today more than WW1 hurt Germany of a century ago.
That is certainly the agit-prop journalism we're being fed up here. Our pundits* have a favourite line they trot out so much you'd think it's a reflex:
I never understood how it was the "German Democratic Republic" it was as misnamed as the "Inflation Reduction Act"
I remember reading an article recently that explained we live in a society where the meaning of everything is inverted. For instance "womens rights" means " men can trash every right women have and "Green energy" means using more fossil fuels for the same outcome and so on.
I really cannot see the whole experiment we are living through surviving much longer. This is due to the fact that we are running out of money and resources to sustain it all.
I am in my 7th decade of life and I feel terrible for leaving this mess for my grandchildren - surely they cannot do any worse!
It sure is a big mess, but to try and be optimistic about things:
a) Germany has been through worse, much worse, in the history of the German peoples.
b) Every time it has come back stronger than ever before.
As for the (ab)use of words, it serves many functions. One is that according to Marxist thought and theory, once you've voted a Socialist Republic in place, there's no need for further voting, so the "Democratic" refers to that, originally. Also, in a Socialist state the people get to vote for the appointed party candidate, and since they get to vote at all, it's "democratic".
If further obfuscation is needed, simply have all the parties be Socialistic in essence, so that it doesn't matter which one forms government. (Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland are like that: all the parties in Parliament agree on 90% of issues, so it doesn't really matter much how the votes fall.)
And finally, the semi-formal term for the German system is either "demokratur", a compound of democracy and diktatur (dictatorship), since the political class can rule by diktat no matter how the people vote. An alternative would be the French-originated "synarchism" - the polar opposite of anarchism. Basically, it is French fascism/corporativism, where everything is joined into the corporate state, and everything is governed by an unelected class of expert bureaucrats.
But I try to view it as I do my kitchen compost: it stinks and it's full of trash, but it can be turned into nourishment for something better.
"it stinks and it's full of trash, but it can be turned into nourishment for something better"
Thus do you succinctly offer us a ray of hope.
Observations over the last few decades would seem to indicate that ALL political parties, in almost all of the so-called western democracies, share exactly the same core beliefs.
As in - "WIIFM". What's in it for me?
There are no meaningful summaries of the total of the debt accrued, by politicians of all stripes, in all countries, but the values are beginning to look like numbers we are more accustomed to see in astronomy.
As Herbert Stein pointed out, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
I think the EU-project, post-Cold War, bears a lot of blame for the European part of this.
Earlier, nations would compete via a lot of different factors, but industry was a core feature for all of them, and as such the European continent had lots and lots of different companies competing in a relatively open market. The main hurdle wasn't tariffs and such, but health&safety standards (Swedish car safety rules were a big bugbear for brands not used to making cars that are supposed to be used in the sub-Arctic and Arctic, to pick a simple example) were, and thus these rules helped keep competition going and quality high.
A company in town, a painters, still uses machines manufactured in West Germany in the 1970s: durable, reliable, and easy to repair - worst case, you can machine new parts. Meanwhile, China-made stuff you can expect to last maybe three years tops.
Anyway. Post Cold War, the EU-idea went into its fina stage: USE, United States of Europe. Certainly, most nations balk at the idea but the onslaught from that part of the Eurocracy has been relentless, and that phalanx of the EU is the one funded and backed by global(ist) capitalists, so it has been edging its way into a being the "centrist" position more and more. Ever close co-operation, instead of peaceful co-existence and competition.
And as competition wanes, and co-operation becomes co-optation and coercion and consensus politics, so too does everything start to fail more and more.
Which is part of the reason I find a kitchen midden (kökkenmödding in Swedish and Danish) such a useful metaphor: the rot must be allowed to run its course, it might even be beneficial to egg it on a bit, so that it can be used to nourish the new. As Ryan Gardner noted elsewhere, ca 50 years ago the EU economy was on par with the US economy. Now, the EU is 60% or so of the US' one.
But disaster followed by rebuilding is very much a part of Europe's cultural heritage, from Roman times to the present, and as Occidentals we all share the common afflictions of thinking that the way things are, are the way things have always been combined with thinking in "clock time" rather than generations and eras.
When one stops doing that, things become easier both to bear and to see in a constructive manner.
It looks like the authoritarians have set up shop in West Germany to me… East Germany is not being represented at all… Taxation without representation… I think I’ve heard that somewhere before… 🤦🏽♀️
New voter here and unfortunately I voted early (AFD) had I read your column sooner I would have gone with BSW - my orginal choice. As an aside years and years ago in the last CDN election I voted by mail and my preferred candidate (Conservative) won by a tiny margin of 15 votes. - my two votes (wife and I) actually made a difference 🤩
“imagine how crazy you have to be ever to enter a government with this toxic party: they get their way on all major political issues and you get punished for it.”
👏👍❤️
You’re our go-to for granular, objective, on-the-ground German (and also EU) politics.
Your work is outstanding and emblematic of new media just relentlessly mauling old media to death.
Is MPs changing parties during a parliament a thing? It is in other jurisdictions (I think Churchill changed parties 3 times while a sitting MP). If it happens, how does it reconcile with the proportional representation system?
I am wondering principally, about the theoretical possibility of some oddball Linke happy to burn all their bridges for a Corona-Ausschuss, or more likely hardcore CSU politicians getting tired of small grand coalition, declaring for the AfD and taking them over the 25% threshold. I think it would take 6 members, so quite a lot, but not impossible.
"In all likelihood, we will have a black-red government under CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz"
Am I too late to be the first to suggest this be dubbed the "Black Widow" coalition? I was going to go with "Deadpool" coalition but I actually like Deadpool.
This was the best possible outcome for AfD. They get to be the main opposition to another Grand Coalition between the union parties and the SPD. Next time they might get to 30% of the vote.
Ugh. I hate to see the Greens having done so well. Germany needs to be quit of that poison ideology. Well, OK, the entire *world* does, but Germany is *really* at the precipice of the industrial cliff. "Green" is a luxury ideology Germany just can't afford any longer.
Gods, that map. Just looking at it, with no knowledge of the whole "firewall" thing, it would seem brutally obvious who would be making up the coalition government. That it will instead be completely different from the obvious black and blue option is a travesty in any place that proclaims itself a "democracy". Hell, it would be a travesty in many places that don't.
> The CDU and the SPD together will have only a very small majority of 13 seats, and there will be an ever-present danger that on crucial votes some representatives of one party or the other might defect, causing bills to pass with AfD support.
So... together, they only have 44.93% of the vote. Who will be making up the rest of their coalition? I mean, as much as I'd prefer to see black and blue there, even that would only have 49.32% of the vote. Is there some measure of disconnect between precise vote percentages, and actual representative count in the Bundestag?
Would a black and blue government be known as the Bruise Coalition?
Scotland & Australia: "What are ye saying, mate - a Bruce coalition?"
You mean your name’s not Bruce!? Gaw- that’s confusing
I prefer to think of it as the Cajun Coalition. After the "blackening spices and blue cheese" Black and Blue Burger. ;)
Yeah, OK, I know, I know, I'm so American it hurts.
What about AC Milano coalition? I do not know which country you come from And how much you know Italian football.
American, and all I could say about Italian football is that I’m sure they play it. :D
You're right; it's a migraine headache.
Yes, all those parties that didn't get over 5% of the vote don't get representation in the Bundestag.
Unless they have a direct representative elected somewhere, I think…?
Also regional, minority parties, namely SSW. So I guess their barrier to entry was 1/630th of the total vote. They only compete in Schleswig-Holstein. So SSW has one seat in parliament. If they had received 0.32% then 2 seats, and so forth.
Makes our US system seem cartoonishly simple in comparison.
Ah, good point. But then, I do wonder how the allocation of those seats is decided.
Explained here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_German_federal_election#Electoral_system
Oh, like that. :D Thanks for the link.
Hunh, so looking at the current seat totals on that page, a Black and Blue coalition would have an *easy* majority of 360 seats out of 630.
Thanks for the link! The allocation seems quite complicated from an American perspective. I see that the German system gives a different result than the simpler constituency-only / first-past-the-post system. If that were the system, the CDU/CSU party would have 182 votes out of 276, and there would be less dilution of legislative decisions. Also, the regional disparity in representation might be greater.
However, it appears that the allocation system is intended to produce coalition governments and lack of legislative accountability. But in America we don't have much legislative accountability since most seats in our parliament are "safe".
Quite interesting!
Even though SPD + CDU/CSU only commanded ~44% of the vote in absolute percentages, they get proportionally more of seats because it‘s a winner-take-more system as a consequence of the fact that parties that do not meet the 5% threshold get no seats at all.
Yes. Parties with less than 5% of the vote do not make representation in the Bundestag.
Democracy being saved yet again by squelching the smaller minority parties.
How would you delegate seats to a party that got one singular vote? His smaller party got squelched! His voice is being silenced! Oppressor!
Hitler probably got a vote somewhere on a write-in.
I’m just saying that the Germans are all screaming about saving Democracy by trying to shut down AfD, but then they say if you don’t get 5% you get no voice…
I find that hypocritical
Apparently CDU+SPD got a majority of seats in the new (smaller) Bundestag (I recall a new total of 630 seats). But it's a small majority. I guess, as someone says, due to some parties being below 5%.
Grok (Ai on X) explained it to me. I guess accurately.
Yeah. It's quite stunning.
But i thought there'd be more support in the Munich/Bavaria area.
Looks like they did just so-so there.
Germany has proved itself too weak and what will happen next is a law of nature.
And not only weak, but unaware of their own destruction.
Unwilling to make changes to preserve themselves.
Sad to watch.
So has the USA (and others). Looks like the USA will turn around some.
The US might but the hyperbolic ventilation about Trump fits directly into the same opposition that faces the AfD. I hope he is successful because that will hopefully lead to some introspection all over the world. Adult leadership has long left western democracies and now we're left with struggle politics masquerading as fighting for democracy against an imagined Hitler.
You guys might like my in depth analysis and my prediction what will happen soon. https://open.substack.com/pub/ambiorixtruth/p/trump-afd-and-the-collapse-of-the?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2cga4z
We can't seem to kick the left to the curb no matter how noxious and toxic they are to the economy and civil liberties.
Here in Canada, the left-far-left brigade of the NDP-Green-Liberal parties still miraculously, bafflingly and preposterously do well or at least continue to garner decent support. The Liberal-NDP sank Canada badly and yet the Liberals continue to maintain decent enough support. We need a massive shift to the right just to bring us back to the centre.
Right-leaning Canadians look on with envy at what's happening in the States with Trump.
As of now the hatred of Trump is leading to a significant rebound in support for the dreaded NDP/Liberal coalition. If Canadians are stupid enough to vote for another Liberal/NDP coalition government, just because of the hatred of one man, who at best is trolling. And at worst will force them to actually make sound economic decisions, like building their own pipelines that don't rely on going through the US, or signing sound economic deals with allies, outside of the US, that exploit the significant natural resources that the country has and diversifies the client base. They will only have themselves to blame when the welfare state falls apart.
I read that over the weekend an old man died after spending 11 hrs in an emergency room waiting for a doctor to see him, something that's becoming a regular occurrence. Canadians need to wake up, otherwise they will be on the road to managed decline just like Germany. A country as resource rich as Canada is, should not have lower GDP per Capita than the poorest state in the Union.
They ARE basing their decision on 'fighting Trump'. It's asinine and shows a lack of maturity. And it's not just the left. Even the Conservatives under Poilievre are falling for this silly faux-patriotic propaganda. Worse, they're ignoring the fact China making Canada a colony. It's like e said in his article. Errors only radicalize the left further. They won't respond by adjusting their messaging they will double down.Canadians are flirting with not punishing the Liberal/NDP for what they did because of their hyperbolic fear of Trump. "He's a convicted felon!" What Trump proposes for Canada is win-win. What the Liberals propose is lose-lose.
Honest question… How much cheating is going on in your elections? That would explain why the liberals are getting so many votes… 🤔
Who knows? Quite a bit. Canada is very corrupt.
Depends on what you mean by cheating? China's United Front is still prominent in mostly the Liberal party. Their officials can still be spotted at campaign rallies including Mark Carney. So, clearly something's not right.
Everyone knows there's a huge China problem. But Canada is like a deer staring at headlights about to be hit by a Mac truck. It doesn't know what to do since it's been so complacent it became complicit by pure inaction.
There are so many ways that cheating can go on… esp. with voting machines, early voting, extra ballots magically appearing from under tables 🙄, mules, dead people voting, inaccurate voter rolls, zombie/ghost voters, etc. And that is just a few ways that I can think of off the top of my head…😑
It’s just horrible here in the USA about the cheating in elections… 💩💩💩
I was just wondering if it’s similar in other countries… 🤔😬
Up until Trudeau, Elections Canada ran a smooth, tight ship I find. Much less room to rig and cheat. Now, I'm not so sure. We have voter ID and it's still old school where you physically cast a ballot and they manually count them. which makes it harder still. Some ridings in urban centres have automated. It's not like the U.S. I'm sure there's some games being played though. But much harder to cheat than the U.S. I think. But with the Liberals taking notes from the DNC very closely, who knows anymore?
Nothing new under the sun… Rigging elections is as old as elections have been around. 😑
Isn’t it interesting how the DNC here in America all of a sudden is low in cash. I wonder if they were getting all of their money from places like USAID… ? 🤨
Deluded SPD voters needed to run to somewhere. They weren't going to switch to AfD.
I still don't have to *like* it... ;)
I'm extremely grateful for your analysis so that we in the US can keep track of developments in Europe and Germany. Thank you!
Yeah well we need to keep our foot on the Lefts neck in the US. No mercy.
Did you see what happened in Chicago today? They let a hardened illegal go just because of their ideology.
Inconceivable madness. This gang-connected illegal immigrant has already been ordered deported by a judge. He's already been arrested for additional crimes. He's suspected of involvement in multiple homicides and rapes, and he stands charged with kidnapping and sexually assaulting a woman.
Despite all of that, Chicago officials won't play ball with the feds to get this man removed from the country because he's been gifted the Very Special Protected Privilege of being a criminal alien. If that isn't bad enough, in spite of his rap sheet, city authorities aren't even holding him behind bars as he awaits trial for kidnapping and sexual assault.
Think about how insane this is:
The Chicago system is protecting this man from the deportation order already levied against him, even after he's allegedly committed numerous charged and suspected violent felonies -- and as they let him walk free awaiting his latest court proceedings, they've told him to surrender his guns and keep his distance from the victim of his latest attack....oh yeah that's really going to stop this animal.
I sometimes try to figure out the logic of all their craziness with illegal alien criminals and sanctuary cities, and all I can come up with is two possibilities: first, they themselves feel they are and will continue to be immune from personal involvement with such criminals because they are so protected, and second, as Marxists they see this as vital to creating the societal chaos that Marxism demands.
It seems to me the second possibility is what is going on across all of Western civilization. This chaos is designed to destroy us. I don’t really think that’s a good plan but that’s how they roll.
I think this covers it, and makes a lot more sense when you think of them as working for our foreign enemies like China.
A NYC Judge let 2 guys off that beat up a cop, the insanity is pernicious and supported by the left.......
Today, Connecticut just released their "cannibal," a man who hacked a victim to death with an ax, and then ate his brain and eyeball. Sentenced to 60 years in a mental institution, he's being released after 14 because he's doing really well ("demonstrated long-term stability"). He claims his cravings have disappeared, and has been given meds to stabilize him. He has promised the state that if he feels his cravings return, he will be sure to turn himself back in.
he should consider fulfilling his cravings for offal by going to Mexican restaurants on the weekends, many of them have brains and other stuff like that. (shoulder shrug emoji)
Oh my goodness… 😱
Speaking of NYC.
I belive it was last month, that crazy homeless dude that pushed an elderly man onto the NYC subway tracks, resulting in that mans death, has had his sentence reduced recently and will be released on some arcane law that's never been used, by the very same corrupt prosecutor that is trying to lynch Penny for doing the right thing.
Complete inversion of Penny's incident. Penny is a hero and they tried to destroy his life.
The ONLY thing Penny did wrong was to talk to the police without an attorney present.
See Eugyppius' article "Why Racism Is A Stupid and Incoherent...."
🔥🔥🔥
Sounds pretty stupid.
Has he been convicted of violent felonies already? (You were not clear to me.)
An argument is "innocent until proven guilty." (Yes, I think resisting deportation is, I think, a felony, but not a violent one.)
I think the Feds should sue Chicago, to force them to cooperate and give him up.
Once an illegal has been ordered deported by an administrative judge FOR ANY REASON (e.g. simply that he has no right to remain), and any appeals have been exhausted, he can just be removed.
Whether or not he was CONVICTED of any suspected felonies is neither here nor there. The main basis for a deportation order is simply that the illegal is "out of status," i.e. he has no current right to remain in the U.S.
There is no good reason to waste a million dollars to try a gang-affiliated suspect for felonies, and then have him locked up for years at public expense, and THEN re-initiate deportation proceedings again.
The case against him is error tight.
I said alleged and suspected. And yes he should get due process. Even Jeffrey Dahmer deserved that and I would die for his right...because they're ares as well.
That said, this man needs to be shipped back immediately.
What Mr. John said… and thank you for having patience with us when we have no idea what’s going on. 👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
I guess the self-flagellation will continue until morale collapses entirely amongst the traditional voters and there's an unquenchable quest for fire.
We could not have had Trump Redux and improved if we hadn't had the horror regime of Biden which was really George W. Bush's fifth term, and we only managed to get Trump in the first place because the Democrats ran Hillary. I hope Germany gets smarter faster.
It seems to be a generational thing. The old vote for the traditional parties (CDU, SPD), and they die, the AfD and also Die Linke will become more powerful.
The German system is build to change only slowly, and its main objective at this point is to provide a comfortable retirement and old age for the boomer generation.
I am a boomer and though it took me some time to get smarter, I did. Old bitches learn new tricks all the time.
This old bitch did :)
A nice pair of Belgian Malinois, perhaps we are.
Living in Belgium and Germany as an American Expat, it seems to me, that many European parties are for their party and not for their constituents. They do what they have to do to stay in power. They do not do what it takes to make their country powerful. If it were not for the wrangling of the unlikely yet very smart and successful people that Trump teamed up with (with honestly, no real party alignment) he may not have won. Many European countries need to put aside the idea of a party (as did Trump and I'm not a fan of Trump) and make alliances to save their country.
Yes, the party system is entrenched in Europe, and very seldom does someone break out of it. Here in Germany the parties seem to activly select against any charsimatic leader; Scholz and Merkel were extremely bland, Merz is as well.
A person like Trump is unthinkable here.
Maybe that's why it's so hard for me to make friends in Europe?! Hehehe...
I think everyone is over thinking. One side of the country still has memories of what living under Communist/Socialists in East Germany was all about and the other side wants to go full commie. I get my European brothers and sisters are not able to respond out of fear of commie reprisals, stay strong.
People have complicated motivations.
"[T]he horror regime of Biden which was really George W. Bush's fifth term."
Brilliant.
Many others have observed this too.
This is the first time I've seen it. I loathe George W. Bush, by the way. The USA has had quite a string of terrible presidents, including GWB, Obama and especially "Joe Biden," in recent decades. I remember reading in Harper's in winter of 2000 an expose on the life and failures of drunkard GWB. "There's no way his candidacy can proceed after this!," I naively pronounced. But under his presidency, the USA launched the 21st century on terrible footing. And it's been mostly downhill from there, obviously.
The Bushes have all been ruthless scum.
My two votes for Obama join every other vote I've ever taken, except for one, that I have painfully regretted afterwards. In all those cases--rather few altogether over my lifetime but still--I ought to have just stayed home.
And a few years ago at one of those state funerals, with Michelle draping herself all cuddly around W. and Clinton and Obama there chummy as can be, that it all became so nakedly clear that it was a slap in the face to all of us.
If not for all our loved ones killed or maimed by the vax, or who died alone and could not even be commemorated properly after, and a generation of children stunted, etc. etc. etc. I'd say it was worth the cost we paid to get to this moment for which I whored out my integrity for the sake of my nation and continue to feel all sparkly about.
But the price was unbearable though we keep having to bear it. Though it's true that when PA was called, on Nov. 5, it was like the abscess around my heart was lanced and cleansed. I didn't think I could feel so happy again, so soon after all the anguish.
"I ought to have just stayed home."
That was George Carlin's position: "Don't blame me -- I didn't vote!"
There have been many signs over the decades that the partisan duopoly has merely been laughing at us all, including that celebrated marriage between top George H.W. Bush campaign adviser Mary Matalin and top Bill Clinton adviser James Carville. If either actually believed anything at all, they could not have coupled up.
I also remember seeing a photo shot in Paris where Hillary Clinton's aide Huma Abedin was depicted socializing in a private home with George W. Bush's daughter's.
Going back to George Carlin, "It's a big club, and you ain't in it!"
Oh! And then there was that photo of Hillary Clinton laughing effusively at a joke that had just been told by Donald J. Trump at the reception after his marriage to Melania.
Who goes to the wedding of "literally Hitler" and laughs at his bon mots at the reception?!! Well, somebody who doesn't actually find him objectionable in the slightest.
It's a charade, a farce.
Over the decades, I've voted for quite a grab bag of different presidential candidates, including Reagan and Nader.
I sat out only the 2004 one; it just didn't seem worth my bother.
And I understand your feeling after last fall's election; I felt like I could breathe again.
I've two great moments to remember.
2008 when OH was called. On the phone with my son who was away at college and had voted for the first time.
Nov. 5, 2024, on SimComm's open thread, experiencing with all my Substack friends the moment when PA was called.
I don't regret the first. How could I? History, shared with my own child.
I'm still gleeful about the second. Achieved in no little part by SubstackLand.
A family member is stationed in Germany rand eports that the work ethic is dismal. This was surprising as my 'Germanesque' relatives were quite hard-working. Under Merkel, the repeated narratives was how but for Germany, the continent would fall because of the lazy Southern Europeans. Has it fallen? And if so, who will it buzz to help get up again? Also, what is up with Western Germany that they aren't curious why their brothers and sisters who had been occupied by the USSR are taking a different path?
The country is in a generalized depression (psychological as much as economic). For large swathes of society, indeed across most of the ~ €2500 to €7500 pay range that covers 90% of employees, the tax and benefits system is set up such that you see very little of any increase in pay, so there is no incentive to get promoted, especially not if that involves any risk, like taking on more responsibility, or in particular moving to another employer.
Huge increases in minimum wage have caused "wage compression" so the incentive to better oneself at the very crucial bottom of that scale is totally nonexistent. Likewise this has caused everything to go up in price. Food is easily twice as expensive on average as 5 years ago.
Lots of professionals (ahem) are stuck in dead end jobs waiting to be fired (generous settlement) after which they will take a year off on generous unemployment benefits.
Meanwhile everyone can see the country crumbling, both infrastructure and society. It doesn't matter what you do, how much extra effort you make, the state takes most of it and pisses it away.
Oh, and these people still vote for the old parties.
The last chancellor who did anything for the economy was Schröder, and the Ampel came along 20 years later and undid the most effective part of his reforms.
So the renowned hardworking Germans are now hardly working? My brother is an automotive junky. He said German car manufacturers will be imploding with layoffs. I had thought it was their forced green initiatives but he said the quality is down. I do know my last leased Mercedes was a dud but I chalked it up as a one off. Any thoughts? I wish no economic disaster on any country, and I hope they make a u-boat turn fast.
Yes. Look up the rates of ‘sick’ leave. It’s high when compared to peer nations and I have heard personal anecdotes confirming the data. Interesting you mention Mercedes as iirc one of their execs recently commented on this issue (although frankly I doubt it had any direct impact on your car).
Very illuminating commentary. Thank you!
"[T]he state takes most of it and pisses it away."
That is ever-more true, as far as I can tell, in my native state in the USA of Minnesota.
A couple of years ago, the deranged leftist governor there scattered an unexpected $14 billion budget surplus to the four winds.
more proof that Socialism eventually evolves towards Communism.
this was my immediate thought and shock, really, when I looked at these results.
What is this?
Oh, I know. Listen to us, stop this bullshit
Man, are you good. What a great report.
(Sorry if all my comments appear to be just dumb sucking-up but it's so rare nowadays to find commenters who know what they're talking about and want to produce intellectually quality work: they deserve gratitude)
thanks so much jdm, I really appreciate it :)
'There will be all kinds of awkward manoeuvring lest anyone displease the gods of democracy and accidentally resurrect Hitler in this way.'
Eugyppius' writing is music to the eyeballs.
hey eugyppius, a couple years ago Geert Wilders won the popular vote outright and still wasn't able to form a coalition without his party watering down its message. Could you see something similar happening to AfD in future, even if they win a plurality?
certainly if and when the AfD enter government, they'll be compelled to compromise on various points, and they'll disappoint many of their activists. their exclusion is the primary cause of their political discipline. I'd expect their Euro and NATO scepticism to be the first casualties.
as long as there are no concessions on migration i could totally live with that. thanks for your reply, I'm no JD Vance but I'm glad you answered my question.
Correct. Unfettered immigration, especially of the Islamic variety, will negate any policy advances elsewhere.
Geert Wilders' PVV indeed opted for focusing on migration when they joined the current Dutch government coalition.
Unfortunately, the PVV migration minister Marjolein Faber produces funny quotes like "I am policy" but not much actual policy.
The focus on migration during the government formation initially worked out well with the PVV going up in the polls, but they are now sliding down due to the lack of results (they are already below the election result).
That's why I think the firewall makes them stronger in some ways. AfD has already had a massive influence on the policies of the old parties. Everyone tries to act tough on immigration now. With little result, sure, but I'm not convinced AfD would be significantly more effective, and AfD as a minor party in a coalition with CDU/CSU most likely wouldn't. I'm not a fan of AfD but still, I'd like to see them in power just to get a chance of proving themselves.
On the other hand, I think they have an important role as the only real opposition. A problem with the German federal system is that even parties who are in the opposition nationally typically form coalitions with government parties on the state level. The Left for example could have made, in an alternative universe, for a good second opposition in the Covid years. Lockdowns and mandates affected the poorest the most, causing people to lose their job and forcing single mothers to homeschool their children aren't classical left-wing policies. But the political reality is in coalitions with SPD and Greens at the state level, so they are in some way part of the political establishment and it would come at a high price to act as principled as AfD could from behind the firewall.
The cordon sanitaire in the Netherlands never was nearly as insane as the German Brandmauer though (at least not since the murder of Pim Fortuyn). In the Netherlands, nobody cares whether decisive votes are cast by radical members of parliament. Only their inclusion in a government coalition is sensitive.
Wilders is all Israël and zionist now. Down in polls too.
That’s a different topic and is missing the point. He can’t do what he wanted, since he had to form a coalition. Western liberal democracy is a sham. He would be running into the exact same issue if he wasn’t a Zionist. He (or anyone else) would not be any more effective either way. Because the system is a sham.
Wilders’ minister of health (Agema): ‘we are following the NATO agenda’.
"Party Chief Christian Lindner will resign and withdraw from politics..."
If you quit and no one notices, does it even happen?
If you quit an no one notices, were you ever in power at all?
What an unfair outcome for East Germany. They voted AfD but will effectively have no representation. That’s not right. Something needs to change.
East German secession?
The eastern parts depend on the West, they are poor and generate no income. I pay a special tax of about 2000 EUR/year nominally dedicated to build up the Eastern states.
The part tat would make sense to secede is Bavaria, where eugyppius comes from. This is where BMW, Audi, etc. are.
Economies do not make societies,
There is definitely a different ethic going on in the former East Germany.
BMW, Audi are cars.
If that were per se true, then the term "political economy" would not have much meaning. My observation is that when the people in societies give up on adherence to "love thy neighbor" religious precepts - solely for the sake of adhering to religious beliefs - the health of the economy will play an outsized role in how people behave toward others and govern themselves.
The environment creates a medium for the creation of humans socializing, ie. hunter-gatherers collectivizing to move from small tribes to villages to towns etc.
Then, a collection of humans organize further and create the conditions for trade using a variety of items as forms of currency.
"the health of the economy will play an outsized role in how people behave toward others and govern themselves."
Like Ukraine?
Like Israel?
Like the U$A?
The "the health of the economy will play" absolutely zero on the behaviour of people! There is plenty of money in the system but people in power are very greedy and push through mis-education and disinformation conditions for the decline of people's future's.
That’s the legacy of the DDR. East Germany is the most educated part of Germany (with the best performing students).
Makes sense considering it's still more German.
Yes! They really should secede.
Based on that map and coming in second at 20%, why is the AFD not the Official Opposition to the CDU/SDU? Are parties forced to form coalitions, is that Representational Gov’t? I think Coalitions make governing next to impossible because no one Party is able to make a decision and run with it. I probably misunderstand how it works so will study up!
eugy has posted some very good explanatory articles recently.
Yes! East Germany secedes form the Whole.
Once again we see the 'benefits' of PR: the electorate move decisively to the right, and the government moves indecisively to the left.
That's a great observation.
Thanks, but it's one that could have been made of any of the last few German elections.
So, you're saying it's a trend and not an outlier.
Seems having lived under "democratic socialism" is an effective inoculation against it.
Let's see how the CDU and SPD handles Germany going into a recession, possibly a really deep one. Also, note that the Merkel years and Ampelkoalition has hurt Germany of today more than WW1 hurt Germany of a century ago.
'Seems having lived under "democratic socialism" is an effective inoculation against it.'
And yet, I imagine many Americans at least, looking at that map, will say "Look! Fascism is returning to east Germany!"
That is certainly the agit-prop journalism we're being fed up here. Our pundits* have a favourite line they trot out so much you'd think it's a reflex:
"This is how it started in the 1930s!"
Headache-inducingly stupid and ignorant.
I never understood how it was the "German Democratic Republic" it was as misnamed as the "Inflation Reduction Act"
I remember reading an article recently that explained we live in a society where the meaning of everything is inverted. For instance "womens rights" means " men can trash every right women have and "Green energy" means using more fossil fuels for the same outcome and so on.
I really cannot see the whole experiment we are living through surviving much longer. This is due to the fact that we are running out of money and resources to sustain it all.
I am in my 7th decade of life and I feel terrible for leaving this mess for my grandchildren - surely they cannot do any worse!
It really is a mess isn't it?
It sure is a big mess, but to try and be optimistic about things:
a) Germany has been through worse, much worse, in the history of the German peoples.
b) Every time it has come back stronger than ever before.
As for the (ab)use of words, it serves many functions. One is that according to Marxist thought and theory, once you've voted a Socialist Republic in place, there's no need for further voting, so the "Democratic" refers to that, originally. Also, in a Socialist state the people get to vote for the appointed party candidate, and since they get to vote at all, it's "democratic".
If further obfuscation is needed, simply have all the parties be Socialistic in essence, so that it doesn't matter which one forms government. (Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland are like that: all the parties in Parliament agree on 90% of issues, so it doesn't really matter much how the votes fall.)
And finally, the semi-formal term for the German system is either "demokratur", a compound of democracy and diktatur (dictatorship), since the political class can rule by diktat no matter how the people vote. An alternative would be the French-originated "synarchism" - the polar opposite of anarchism. Basically, it is French fascism/corporativism, where everything is joined into the corporate state, and everything is governed by an unelected class of expert bureaucrats.
But I try to view it as I do my kitchen compost: it stinks and it's full of trash, but it can be turned into nourishment for something better.
"it stinks and it's full of trash, but it can be turned into nourishment for something better"
Thus do you succinctly offer us a ray of hope.
Observations over the last few decades would seem to indicate that ALL political parties, in almost all of the so-called western democracies, share exactly the same core beliefs.
As in - "WIIFM". What's in it for me?
There are no meaningful summaries of the total of the debt accrued, by politicians of all stripes, in all countries, but the values are beginning to look like numbers we are more accustomed to see in astronomy.
As Herbert Stein pointed out, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
I think the EU-project, post-Cold War, bears a lot of blame for the European part of this.
Earlier, nations would compete via a lot of different factors, but industry was a core feature for all of them, and as such the European continent had lots and lots of different companies competing in a relatively open market. The main hurdle wasn't tariffs and such, but health&safety standards (Swedish car safety rules were a big bugbear for brands not used to making cars that are supposed to be used in the sub-Arctic and Arctic, to pick a simple example) were, and thus these rules helped keep competition going and quality high.
A company in town, a painters, still uses machines manufactured in West Germany in the 1970s: durable, reliable, and easy to repair - worst case, you can machine new parts. Meanwhile, China-made stuff you can expect to last maybe three years tops.
Anyway. Post Cold War, the EU-idea went into its fina stage: USE, United States of Europe. Certainly, most nations balk at the idea but the onslaught from that part of the Eurocracy has been relentless, and that phalanx of the EU is the one funded and backed by global(ist) capitalists, so it has been edging its way into a being the "centrist" position more and more. Ever close co-operation, instead of peaceful co-existence and competition.
And as competition wanes, and co-operation becomes co-optation and coercion and consensus politics, so too does everything start to fail more and more.
Which is part of the reason I find a kitchen midden (kökkenmödding in Swedish and Danish) such a useful metaphor: the rot must be allowed to run its course, it might even be beneficial to egg it on a bit, so that it can be used to nourish the new. As Ryan Gardner noted elsewhere, ca 50 years ago the EU economy was on par with the US economy. Now, the EU is 60% or so of the US' one.
But disaster followed by rebuilding is very much a part of Europe's cultural heritage, from Roman times to the present, and as Occidentals we all share the common afflictions of thinking that the way things are, are the way things have always been combined with thinking in "clock time" rather than generations and eras.
When one stops doing that, things become easier both to bear and to see in a constructive manner.
I love the last sentence. A brilliant analogy - it made me laugh out loud - thanks
It looks like the authoritarians have set up shop in West Germany to me… East Germany is not being represented at all… Taxation without representation… I think I’ve heard that somewhere before… 🤦🏽♀️
New voter here and unfortunately I voted early (AFD) had I read your column sooner I would have gone with BSW - my orginal choice. As an aside years and years ago in the last CDN election I voted by mail and my preferred candidate (Conservative) won by a tiny margin of 15 votes. - my two votes (wife and I) actually made a difference 🤩
“imagine how crazy you have to be ever to enter a government with this toxic party: they get their way on all major political issues and you get punished for it.”
👏👍❤️
You’re our go-to for granular, objective, on-the-ground German (and also EU) politics.
Your work is outstanding and emblematic of new media just relentlessly mauling old media to death.
+100
Is MPs changing parties during a parliament a thing? It is in other jurisdictions (I think Churchill changed parties 3 times while a sitting MP). If it happens, how does it reconcile with the proportional representation system?
I am wondering principally, about the theoretical possibility of some oddball Linke happy to burn all their bridges for a Corona-Ausschuss, or more likely hardcore CSU politicians getting tired of small grand coalition, declaring for the AfD and taking them over the 25% threshold. I think it would take 6 members, so quite a lot, but not impossible.
"In all likelihood, we will have a black-red government under CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz"
Am I too late to be the first to suggest this be dubbed the "Black Widow" coalition? I was going to go with "Deadpool" coalition but I actually like Deadpool.
This was the best possible outcome for AfD. They get to be the main opposition to another Grand Coalition between the union parties and the SPD. Next time they might get to 30% of the vote.
From your keyboard to God's inbox!