Cock-up or conspiracy? Thoughts on Joe Biden's spectacular debate failure, and whether it reflects a deliberate takedown by rivals in his own party
For years, the establishment press have told us there is nothing at all wrong with Joe Biden, that he’s extremely sharp, even a wise statesmen, and that rumours of his senility are a malicious right-wing conspiracy theory.
On 2 February 2024, for example, Welt assured us that “No, Joe Biden is not senile”:
Recently, Joe Biden gave a speech that even sceptics had to admit was pretty brilliant. He recalled that his predecessor in office, Donald Trump, called fallen US soldiers “suckers” and “losers” and refused to visit an American military cemetery in France: “How dare he,” said Biden quietly … “If I see one loser here, it's Donald Trump.”
A memorable moment. But it was not Joe Biden's first outstanding speech: Who could forget how he reacted in Tel Aviv to the pogrom of 7 October 2023? “I come to Israel today with a single message,” he said at the time. “You are not alone. You are not alone.” Also unforgettable is the appeal Joe Biden made to Congress in February 2022 after Russian troops invaded Ukraine, murdering and raping people.
It must also be reported that Joe Biden is sporty: He has repeatedly been spotted cycling along the Potomac; he sometimes enters podiums with an athletic leap … Yes, he is a sprightly old gentleman. Sometimes he’s slow; sometimes he shuffles a little as he walks. Now and again he is doddery. So what? He’s still in surprisingly good condition for an 81-year-old.
So why does the myth persist that Joe Biden is senile? In fact there is only one piece of evidence in favour of this this assumption: he mumbles. If you do some research on YouTube, however, you’ll realise that he has always mumbled. It’s not a state secret where the mumbling comes from - Joe Biden is a stutterer, and like most stutterers of his generation, he has learned to hide his speech impediment behind a hasty rush of words. That’s it. That’s all there is to the rumour about Biden’s senility.
It’s not difficult to find out who started the false report that Biden is senile and won't be around much longer: It’s radical right-wing propaganda …
[B]ut why does German journalism cling so faithfully to the narrative of Joe Biden’s frailty? Is it anti-Americanism? Stupidity? Is the realisation that a competent and fairly wise old man sits in the White House unbearable? Or do the Germans not forgive the Americans for the fact that they are about to bring about an energy transition that - unlike the German stillbirth - threatens to be a huge success?
On 30 April 2024, Der Spiegel brought in an “expert” to explain that “If Joe Biden were senile, rivals would be lining up to challenge him”:
Joe Biden is the oldest president in US history – and yet he will be re-elected, historian Sean Wilentz says. The main reason is the Republicans under Donald Trump …
SPIEGEL: It’s not just journalists who have doubts. According to an NBC poll , 70% of Americans and 51% of Democratic supporters want the president to serve only one term. Wouldn’t it be better if the Democrats at least had a contest for the presidential nomination?
Wilentz: That’s a valid point. But poll results are always very volatile. If Biden were senile – or if it appeared that he was even close to it – his challengers would be lining up. It wouldn’t be the first time in American history that an incumbent president has had competition from within his own camp. I’m old enough to remember how, in the 1960s, Lyndon B. Johnson suddenly found himself facing opponents from within his own party because many Democrats were outraged by the war in Vietnam. Johnson ultimately decided not to run for a second term because he realised that he lacked support within his own party. Today, the situation is completely different: There may be grumbling in the left wing of the Democrats, and on the other side, in the conservative part, Joe Manchin, the senator from West Virginia, is getting on the White House’s nerves. But the bottom line is that Biden has held the party together. And that is also because he has achieved something politically.
On 28 April 2023, Tagesspiegel presssplained to us that if anything Biden’s age is an advantage, because “age is just a number” and “60 is the new 40” and also because wolves and Native Americans and the Chinese, or something:
Let’s face it: youth is a state of being that changes with each passing day. And it’s the same with age. You might say that 60 is the new 40 … and baby boomers feel years younger today. Which brings us to Joe Biden.
Now, once again, his age is being used against him. He’s already over 80. And, is he allowed to do that – I mean, not only to become U.S. President, b ut to remain President?
In the distant past, that would not have been a question. Apart from the old wolf, who rules the pack, his clan, for as long as his strength lasts, and for some it lasts a long time – many grow wiser with age.
The Native Americans … very often had very old chiefs, because of their life experience, leadership experience and knowledge of human nature. The leader of the warriors could easily be a younger man.
And since we always look to the Chinese with fascination – Deng Xiaoping, that legendary leader, was old. He was over 90, but respected nevertheless, or respected preciesly for that reason …
So we should honour [Biden’s] age …
Grandpa-in-Chief: What speaks against it? Studies don’t, on the contrary: people who don’t smoke live longer. Biden doesn’t smoke. People who consider themselves healthy live longer on average. Biden considers himself to be very healthy …
Who cares that Biden mumbles – many of us in Hamburg, for example, also mumble. Who cares that Biden’s back is getting stiffer – everyone over 60 has back problems …
Then, on 27 June 2024, Biden faced off against Trump in the first debate of this election cycle, and delivered the worst performance of any presidential candidate in history. The tone of the American and also the German press coverage changed in an instant. “Everyone can see that Biden is too old,” said that daily single-ply toilet paper mill known as the Süddeutsche Zeitung. “Biden’s Debate Disaster: The Democrats are Panicking,” proclaimed state media broadcaster ZDF. “Biden should do the world a favour and withdraw,” said Der Spiegel. What was derided as a perfidious far-right conspiracy theory just a week ago became the new orthodoxy in the space of just hours. It is one of the most sudden and self-discrediting narrative reversals I have ever seen.
How do we understand this?
There are many theories, but most fall into two main categories:
1) Some believe that the Biden and his campaign simply screwed up, and that the Democratic Party are now in genuine crisis. Institutional inertia, hubris, political patronage and stupidity caused them to field a presidential candidate suffering from advanced dementia. Via careful stage-managing and amphetamines, they’ve managed to avoid overt disaster with most of Biden’s public appearances until now, but on 27 June they failed big before an audience of millions for the first time. Their panic is genuine and they have few prospects of replacing Biden with a more viable candidate at this late hour.
2) Others argue that we’re witnessing the deliberate destruction of Biden’s candidacy by forces in his own party. They say that the goal is to replace Biden with a more viable politician, although a few hold that there are actors also within the Democratic Party who favour a Trump presidency. Biden’s campaign only agreed to the debate to sabotage him, and the panic is not sincere but an effort to engineer a political crisis that will force Biden to step down. We are watching the unfolding of a plan that has been in the works for a long time.
This is another debate in the emergent-phenomenon-vs.-coordinated-conspiracy category, of the kind that has interested me since I started blogging. In what follows, I’ll explore the legal and practical possibilities, the evidence of happenings since the debate, and also some curious rumours, in service of explaining what I think is going on – and whether 1) or 2) better explain the events before us.
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