Kanzler-Krimi: Who stabbed Friedrich Merz in the back and what does it mean?

Tuesday's ballot to crown Merz Chancellor failed in the first round because 18 conspirators among the coalition parties withheld their support. Thoughts on this political mystery.

Friedrich Merz on Tuesday morning as he learns that he is the first presidentially nominated Chancellor candidate in the history of the Federal Republic to lose a Bundestag vote.

On Tuesday, the Bundestag convened to elect Friedrich Merz Chancellor of the Federal Republic. It did not go well:

On Tuesday morning, German MPs held a secret ballot to elect the country’s next leader. It was largely viewed as a formality because Mr Merz had already agreed to lead a coalition government.

But Mr Merz fell short of the majority required to become Chancellor by just six votes, an unprecedented sign of dissent from his centre-Right CDU (Christian Democratic Union) party and its coalition allies.

Mr Merz won 310 votes in the secret ballot, six short of the majority he required to lead the next German government.

Shocked CDU politicians left the chamber for urgent talks after the result, amid speculation in the German media that some of their MPs had rebelled due to policy disagreements with Mr Merz.

The CDU leader can still hold a second vote in the Bundestag, the German Parliament, to try and secure his majority.

If that were to fail, a third round of voting would occur, in which he would only need to secure the highest number of votes in Parliament, rather than a majority.

The result is a major embarrassment for Mr Merz.

That afternoon, in a hastily arranged second vote, the parliament succeeded in bringing Merz across the line. He and his cabinet were sworn in hours later than planned – an ugly start to a coalition that has seemed cursed since its birth in the February elections.

These events were far more than a passing curiosity. As we’ll see, they almost certainly arise from a conspiracy within Merz’s own coalition – a conspiracy that struck again after Tuesday’s vote and that in the worst-case scenario may persist for the entire government.

The response to these conspirators was moreover highly intriguing. The SPD used the debacle to further humiliate the Union parties, while Alternative für Deutschland extended Merz surprising (and little-noticed) backhanded support, rather than exploiting an obvious opportunity to harm his candidacy.

We can only speculate about their reasons. What we need not speculate about, is the significance of this storm in a teacup. This was an early sign of serious instability within the not-so-grand coalition, and a hint at the forces that will push the Union parties further left and further away from their own voters in the months and years to come.