On the fantasy of collapse, the robust nature of modern states and what kind of political change is possible

The countercultural left and the countercultural right nourish two equivalent political fantasies.

The left hopes (or used to hope) for some manner of revolution, in which the oppressed classes will rise up, tear down the oppressive structures of capitalism or colonialism or privilege, and establish a new, enduring egalitarian utopia.

Many on the right, conversely, imagine an imminent political collapse. Either our post-liberal states will succumb to their internal contradictions and dissolve of their own accord, or populist protests against managerial excesses and the ‘deep state’ will bring the system to its knees.

Whenever I doubt these scenarios, I get angry replies. One reader, for example, responded to my piece on England Burning by complaining that I “seem to not understand that if there is enough of what is going on in Great Britain it will bring down a government and even a nation.” These views are not only naive; they can be self-defeating and even harmful. First, they encourage unreasonable expectations around every populist backlash. When protests inevitably fail to destroy the prevailing order, many become demoralised and claim that nothing ever happens. Second, they make people easy to manipulate. There are bad state actors who are eager to criminalise the political opposition by inciting them to commit indictable offences, and there is also a whole world of opportunists who peddle wild sensational scenarios for internet attention.

Here I want to explain why collapse scenarios are unrealistic, and what kind of political change we can legitimately hope for. The clear-eyed view should not depress you. To begin with, Mad Max-style social and political turmoil may sound exhilarating, but in truth it would be an unmitigated catastrophe that few of us would survive. As scenarios for political change go, it’s also unnecessary. We don’t need total collapse to solve our most pressing problems.