Preliminary UK data: Triple vaccinated SARS-2 positives are more than four times more likely to have Omicron than unvaccinated.
We should be calling for a total and complete shutdown of vaccinations until our public health representatives can figure out what is going on.
Norman Fenton points out an interesting tidbit in the 21 December UK Office of National Statistics infection survey, on “Characteristics related to having an Omicron compatible result in those who test positive for COVID-19”. The data is for infections from 29 November to 12 December.
First, this remarkable passage from the results sheet:
Those who have received three doses of a vaccine and test positive for COVID-19 are more likely to be infected with infections compatible with the Omicron variant compared with those who are unvaccinated, though individuals who had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine continued to be less likely to test positive for COVID-19, regardless of variant. It is too early to draw conclusions from our data on the effectiveness of vaccines against the Omicron variant.
The data is in Table 1b:
Yes, the numbers are very small. Yes, the 95% confidence intervals are enormous. Nevertheless: According to these numbers, the triple vaccinated were 4.45 times more likely than the unvaccinated to have Omicron, among those who tested positive for Corona. For comparison, those with recent travel abroad were 4.6 times more likely than the unvaccinated to have Omicron, while the double vaccinated were 2.26 times more likely, and the single vaccinated 1.57 times more likely.
This squares entirely with the preliminary data from Denmark, which has the double vaccinated sliding into negative efficacy against Omicron (but not Delta) after 90 days. The authors of that study tried to talk away this awkward result by claiming that it “was likely the result of Omicron spreading rapidly initially through single (super-spreading) events causing many infections among young, vaccinated individuals.” The more the same effect is viewed in other data sets, the less likely that explanation becomes.
Maybe, instead of boosting manically in the face of this new variant, as the vaccinators are already demanding, we should be calling for a total and complete shutdown of vaccinations until our public health representatives can figure out what is going on.
UPDATE: See The Naked Emperor’s post on this anomaly and related trends in the UK Data: The New Normal – Pandemics of the Vaccinated?