Key CDU politicians, coordinating with the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, will try to get the German Bundestag to approve a ban before the end of the year.
I predict many people, some in this very comment section, saying that a ban will only make the right stronger. I think that is wishful thinking at its worst and mental gymnastics taking to an extreme sports level. Repression works, which is actually why people try not to fall under it and their enemies want to exercise it. It’s sad that it takes saying, but repeated experience shows it does.
But anyway – tl;dr: Germany is unfixable and the smart move is getting out while the gittin' is good. Depressing elaboration follows.
On an individual basis, for a young or even middle aged German with something on the ball the smart move has been emigration for quite a while and I have been urging German friends to pack their suitcases – to Switzerland if they can hack it, to the US per default, to Thailand if they can stand the heat, to El Salvador for those who want to risk going long on a value pick.
An outright ban on the only actual opposition party might have one good aspect – shake some of the right [sic] people loose before too many have decided to go and the doors slam shut.
To put it plainly, Germany isn’t getting reformed in any meaningful sense to any meaningful degree in any meaningful timeframe. Indeed, there’s a confluence of deep, generational crises that each would be enough to pretty much sink a country, and they’re all entirely baked in at this point. It’s been fun to watch the AfD go, but substantial optimism is wilful self-delusion – consider if everything went perfectly, if every single decision turned on a dime into perfection:
1. You’d be at least 10 (realistically, 20) years off the new reactor fleet coming into the grid at sufficient numbers to get energy back to prices that other locations enjoy during that whole time frame. I.e. you’re baked into most of another generation of industrial decline, which can only accelerate because networks of skill retention weaken with every company that shuts-or-leaves, impelling the next one to follow.
2. The cost of rebuilding reliable generation in Germany would preclude a ton of other urgently necessary infrastructure work, e.g. the grid not being in any way ready for full electrification, particularly of heating and mobility, overshadows that it needs a lot of maintenance anyway, even for preexisting usage patterns, not to speak of the catastrophic rail- and increasingly bad road infrastructure.
3. Even if every criminal invader was thrown out instantly by pure magic at some stroke of midnight, further decline in cohesion and sheer capacity of the population is already baked in by pure demographic momentum and differential fertility. Fixing that problem to a substantial degree would take some actually scary constitutional changes.
4. And even if none of the above were true Germany is increasingly an old folks’ home, and the health and pension systems are broke. Not even fixing, but just managing, those problems in relevant time frames will require scaled-out deployments of Canadian medicine (which are thus almost certain to come). Thus society inevitably becomes more callous, and more openly brutally utilitarian. The alternative is simple bankruptcy, possibly expressed in inflation, which also doesn’t tend to bring out the best in man.
The synthesis of those is a country of sharply declining wealth, with its diverse population increasingly unable to paper over issues with welfare spending, murdering their old and sickly in the background of increasing social strife. Why be around for it.
Mind you immigrating into the US is not as simple as it sounds. I speak of own experience. Cost me close to 3000 bucks (including 2 hotels stays when I had to be there at 8, and had to drive 2 or more hours). Being treated like a criminal in some offices, while the real criminals get free rooms, meals, phones, and cards. But you may not get angry about any of that! Not sure if Hungary is accepting anyone at all, Russia gives temporary stay obviously, and don't know about Croatia either, 3 only European countries I would consider anymore. Worldwide, El Salvador seems indeed to be the best choice.
Likewise immigrating into Germany was no picnic- even though I was married to a German. They made it very clear in the 1990’s that I was not to take a job away from a German and that my American accent would put me at a great disadvantage, with every other English speaker getting first dibs, even Germans speaking English with a heavy accent and also the Australians. Nothing against those groups, but it was a pretty hostile setting. I missed some paperwork (even with an attorney helping) and I ended up being threatened with handcuffs at a German airport. So, I think everyone should be angry at these new immigrants, it’s simply outrageous.
Note also that the mirror image of your case (hindering the productive, rolling out the red carpet for NMPIs) will happen the second remigration becomes the actual policy of any elected government:
The bureaucracy will find the hardest cases; the most sympathetic individuals and families, and push them out first. And for every case photo- and videojournalists will somehow have learned in advance where and when deportations will happen.
In this, as in many cases, the immediate problem is the “red cape” and focussing on it instead of the “matador” of the permanent bureaucracy is a huge mistake.
Without ¡afuera!, nothing is possible, with ¡afuera!, few things are even difficult.
Of course, these mechanisms are deeply entrenched in law, which means that even in the desperately unlikely case of a substantial rise to elected power by a genuine opposition (i.e. an absolute majority, since nobody would cooperate, and a supermajority for many things), there would have to be a phase when the law means exactly what the new power reads in it.
Which – for all the wannabe will to power wank many right wing posters like to engage in – in actuality is really, really bad and horribly dangerous, no matter how necessary a break with catastrophic prior structures is and no matter how well-intentioned the reformers are. Revolutions have ways to build an appetite.
Dunno if the US is a good destination compared to Germany anyway if $3000 is a lot of money; it’s at least super high variance due to potential medical cost and (still) higher crime if you don’t live wealthy. I guess the young and ambitious would do better with employment/startup visa with an eye towards citizenship.
In middle age an investor visa at $800k-1.1m shouldn’t be very expensive (while those on the cheap end are normally not great investments because they’re tuned for being eligible at that captive investor crowd, the returns might not be great but your money wouldn’t likely just be gone, so it’s more time value than cost) for frugal good earners who put money away, even just into ETFs, early and often – that’s what I meant with “something on the ball” to be frank.
The problem with Russia, and even Hungary, is that they’re kinda shit holes outside the big premier cities. Rather poor, rather bad infra. Beautiful landscapes though in many places. Croatia seems nice but is also getting expensive in nice places.
Keep in mind that slavic countries are “classically hospitable” in that they’re friendly to visitors, but are generally rather xenophobic towards settlement, and good for them! But that’s less fun when you’re the xenos.
El Salvador is still hard to tell where it goes, and for how long. Same with Argentina.
Another weird but potentially interesting destination for Germans with professional education, particularly engineering, logistics, or international commerce experience, might be the gulf autocracies. Say about the UAE what you will, but if you’re gonna live among Arabs anyway, why not choose the high end of that spectrum.
… there is also the possibility of spillover from the Ukraine war if you need another reason. But maybe if that happens it will clear out the current leadership …
Getting to the periphery and out of NATO land might yet yield benefits indeed, crazy to have to say. Another mighty big point against Russia as an emigration target that sometimes comes up for the aspirational “baste emigre” crowd.
Despite all the many and impressive improvements they’ve had, as far as western oppositional migration goes I’d still file Russia more under “passport bro” than “contender” anyway TBH.
I hate to see the destruction of beautiful things and it pains me to watch the train wreck of Germany. I can't argue with your assessment and forecast. I want to curse.
Given recent noteworthy political developments there and the...er, shall we say 'precedents', I'm astonished you left out Argentina as a destination for German emigrants.
IMO higher variance/risk than even El Salvador. The Argentinian population is a rather mixed bag and the Peronists/Kirchnerists are far from thoroughly vanquished. They seem to be stunned and stunned again by the Mileist optempo but the question is how long they can keep that up.
So far Milei has kept from being attacked by Blue Empire organisations by heavily aligning with the empire in foreign policy towards outside powers, particularly China. Argentina however – heavily indebted as it is and will remain for some time – is highly vulnerable to the DC consensus blob and it’s clear that these institutions would prefer Argentina stays mired in corruption, poverty, and hopelessness as long as it’s in the managerial style.
Even El Salvador’s rollup of evil freaks is not as heretical in this sense as ¡afuera!-ing the managers.
I'd say this were unbelievable if there weren't other news from Germany combined with an astonishing silence in the German MSM on this particular issue.
I also suspect the Wanderwitzian attempt has been postponed to next month in the hope of a 'good' outcome on November 5th (an intriguing historical date ...), namely a Kamala Koronation. That would make it so much easier to whip through an AfD ban - not so when Trump wins ...
Ah well, 'interesting times' and all that, innit like ...
These posts have become somewhat routine at this point. I find it so hard to believe that this happening to Germany, and all the while the population largely labors under a constant stoicism, accepting whatever fate is imposed upon it.
I am not crazy about the far right, in their old, traditional sense. But, the "new" far right I am All. In.
What is ‘far right’? It seems to me that there are as many shades of ‘right ‘ politics as there are days in a year. Is the AfD far right? Or are the nut jobs like Candace Owens ‘far right’?
There are two subjects which "broke" me. The first was the covid madness, but the real big one, is this trans insanity and specifically going after kids. In my view a "doctor" who takes a knife to a child or who willingly chemically mutilates like that deserves a long prison sentence or frankly a firing squad. And I'd like to live in a society that reflects those views. Does that mean making bedfellows with some people I wouldn't have? Yes.
This news, coming at the same time the Khameleon stood at a podium displaying the Seal of the Office of the Vice President, and declared that Trump was not just Hitler, but far worse and far more dangerous, in grave and apocalyptic terms, cannot be coincidence.
Should she win, I can easily see her administration orchestrating the exact same scenario here against Trump and his entire party of MAGA adherents. And our “Intel Agencies”, (as with the BfV in Germany),will be more than thrilled to supply the “evidence” needed in order to do so.
There has also recently been uncovered a feverishly coordinated effort between a UK and US conjoined group to “kill Elon Musk’s X platform”. Their word, Kill.
The Leaders of the so-called free world are in full alignment that they’ve had quite enough from the upstarts in the citizenry, and that it’s down to them to utterly silence and destroy them once and for all, and by any means necessary.
and I even don't exclude it is possible. Gates just donated a sickening amount of money to her instead of to the suffering, homeless people in North-Carolina and Tennessee, and to the starving homeless on his doorstep. If you are not yet sick of the man, this must make you.
Sorry, on a side note, just heard from my best friend in Sweden who said at a church service that “promotes NATO and peace” they actually passed around the tray and asked for donations for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation! True story, happened 1 day ago.
The only way we can save Democracy is to be undemocratic. The only way to save free speech is to censor everyone online. The only way we can stop misinformation is to be sure that all information is through approved channels and fact checked by government approved fact checkers. Ain't Democracy grand? The USA is trying hard to keep up with Deutschland or maybe Deutschland is trying hard to keep up with the USA.
If Trump has started his own political party, it would have been banned by the Uniparty. But, unfortunately for them, he and his followers have been able to seize control of one of the two major parties in the U.S., so banning is off the table.
Re seizing control of one of the two major parties. Bret Weinstein recently proposed a fascinating idea about how the Democrats and Republicans have reversed polarity, part of which was Trump decapitating the Republican Party.
And I seriously doubt Trump has taken over one of the parties, yet. There are hundreds if not thousands of faux republicans in the party that are closet democrats if not in name but deeds.
That party was infiltrated many years ago and is beyond resuscitation.
If Trump is to build anything it should be a new party with a clean slate containing none of the current vermin.
If he can make it past the steal he should infect the party with patriots while doing as much damage as he can to the unconstitutional government.
Doing so could send a message to Germany that outlawing a major party could have serious consequences. We will know in 12 days (approximately).
Being mostly ignorant of European politics as most of us here in the US tend to be, I have no idea! It does seem ridiculously obvious that banning a political party won't solve the problem of popular discontent. As you point out, the pressure will find another outlet.
they blocked a similar party 25 or more years ago in Belgium, but in the recent election I saw they are still active, although at a lower range. Might have ended up like the Greens, a big flame and good intentions to begin with, and after 25 years down in the gutter. The greens there are all but a forgotten party as well.
I think one-in-four odds the Federal Constitutional Court would approve a ban. Before there was basically no chance that this would get out of the Bundestag, so this didn’t matter. Now those chances have dramatically increased.
The Bundestag will be voting on whether to ask the Federal Constitutional Court to ban the party. So, in a sense, the case ends up before the court almost immediately – after some preliminaries. The proceedings themselves are elaborate and would likely take more than a year – that is, they would probably stretch beyond the 2025 elections. If the court really wants to ban the party, though, they will perhaps try to rush the proceedings so AfD can't run in 2025.
I was very skeptical when you earlier claimed that the chances of a ban were nearly zero, but didn't know enough about German politics to argue otherwise.
Just as a matter of epistemology, if a future event goes from "nearly zero" chance to "one in four" then the original estimation of the chance was wrong. So one interesting question is, why did it previously appear so unlikely (beyond not having happened often before).
My reasoning has gone like this: For a ban to work, it has to be requested by either the government, the Bundesrat/Federal Council or the Bundestag (parliament). Only then does it go to the Federal Constitutional Court for approval or denial.
A ban has long appeared almost impossible, because the government, including Scholz and Faeser, have stated unequivocally they won't support a ban, and because the leadership of all the major parties were forthrightly against it. There was just no path towards it getting over the first hurdle. Until a few days ago, Wanderwitz was effectively collecting support from backbenchers who would not be able by themselves to achieve the necessary majority in the Bundestag, and the government was refusing and there was no interest in the Bundesrat. Sudden hints that CDU Bundestag leadership are willing to reconsider go a long way towards destroying that calculus. We're still not all the way there, and the SPD remain opposed from the leadership on down. But, it is just undeniably much more probable now.
Two things still speak against it:
1) The judges on the constitutional court aren't just going to rubber-stamp this. Even if it gets through the Bundestag it's going to be a drawn-out process.
2) It is very unlikely, because of 1), that the AfD will be banned ahead of the 2025 federal elections. The worst outcome possible, for the establishment parties, is that proceedings to ban the party are ongoing throughout the election season. This makes the AfD a victim and a martyr *while they are still running,* and this in itself is a reason to vote against a ban.
But, there are unknowns here. The head of the constitutional court is himself a CDU party member. It's possible that there is a lot of behind-the-scenes CDU party coordination – pretty clearly, the CDU-headed BfV is collaborating with CDU Bundestag member Wanderwitz to create amenable conditions for the Bundestag to apply for a ban. So, the chances of a ban are still small but no longer vanishingly so. Even odds the Bundestag approves this right now, and one-in-four odds the constitutional accord approves the ban, so a 1/8 chance overall that this succeeds.
The most pressing question for me is why no German politicians look like Sebastian Koch.
But moving right along--I guess these guys have been paying very close attention to the lawfare against Trump. In two weeks--or so--they'll know fer shure if they ought to proceed.
If I were in Germany, I would start a petition to ban CDU for Stalinist policies. Fearing that such Stalinist policies would lead inevitably and inexorably to concentration camps, Pogroms and other fascistic manifestations as has already happened in Cuba, Venezuela, Uganda and other countries. It will be easy to write such a petition, pointing out that which is already going on and developing.
Well, eugyppius brings news from Germany. I invoke the 'lib-tard' phrase in regard to the Mole known as Thomas Haldenwang.
The logic is simple. Use shallow one dimensional names, build an entire fake story about those names, and then watch as inevitably everyone eventually falls foul of the ever-changing rules.
As euguppius says, these people are 'lib-tards'. Dangerous dictators with very low IQ.
It would seem that unlike a real mole that uses facial hair and extra sensitive nose to move around underground, Thomas H is simply blind with no back-up systems at all. I wonder if the UK Layzee Laybour Party would care to 'consult' in this matter instead of running the country? Say, 100 'places'? All expenses paid, of course.
Just curious. Could the delay till mid-November have anything to do with the outcome of the US elections? Do American politics play a role in Germany? If Trump were elected and the Germans had just banned the conservative AfD could US and German relations be affected?
I think you overestimate the US’ importance in the world today. I know you all have great confidence in your importance and history but in the scheme of things your influence is waning and European history is much more important. Our last foray into holidaying in Europe with a cruise company was a revelation in just how self important the US has become. In every city except Eastern Europe we went to, the guides tailored the narrative to the majority Americans. So it was hard to get good information.
"I think you overestimate the US’ importance in the world today."
"In every city except Eastern Europe we went to, the guides tailored the narrative to the majority Americans." self-refutation?
And I'm not sure if what matters most is how important/influential America currently is vs how important/influential it is among the governing classes in Brussels and the other European capitals.
The managers of the global-corporate state, no matter which outpost they reside in, take their cues from America and know being dutiful obedient vassals is the best way to keep and maintain their positions (not to mention help push their kids up the ladder).
I'm sure if they ban the AfD the members and supporters will flock to center parties or even left leaning ones. NOT When humans are wronged, there is a tendency to seek "pay back." I'm sure the ruling pols never learned that lesson. Another of those "history repeating itself" issues.
I am right now having nightmares of what happens after an AfD ban. These bans of course also prohibit 'successor' or replacement parties, so what will likely ensue, is a series of legal proceedings against any post-AfD party that tries to establish itself on the basis that it is a proscribed successor.
they will try to make anything 'to the right' of the CDU (however you want to construe that) effectively illegal. something like this has never happened before. the only other banned parties – the SRP and the KPD – were quite small in comparison and outright bans therefore much more effective. here they're banning a party supported by a fifth of the population.
If I recall correctly, you said there were 50,000 members and many more that voted for AfD. You just can't turn that off. I'm sure there are a lot of "lost cause" feelings still there from the Glory Days of the 1930's. I was transferred to the deep south in the USA in 1965 and there was still a lot of feelings about a war they lost one hundred years before. I am also sure there are people in East Germany that miss the good old days. Much better to figure out how to work with AfD than to make them martyrs. If I were there,
The AfD has basically nothing in common with 1930s parties though. The Nazis were a far left party, the fact that they are constantly called far right is Goebells style repetition. Look for ideological similarities between the AfD and the parties of the 30s and there are very few compared to the similarities between the ruling coalition and the 30s.
I only meant you can't just tell a large group of citizens their party is banned without sequences. The nazi party in the 1920's was very small but came back. I am not comparing which side of the spectrum each are on but just how people react to being singled out and banned. I'm sure if the Dems won everything here, President, congress they would try to single out MAGA republican's and have them banned.
I predict many people, some in this very comment section, saying that a ban will only make the right stronger. I think that is wishful thinking at its worst and mental gymnastics taking to an extreme sports level. Repression works, which is actually why people try not to fall under it and their enemies want to exercise it. It’s sad that it takes saying, but repeated experience shows it does.
But anyway – tl;dr: Germany is unfixable and the smart move is getting out while the gittin' is good. Depressing elaboration follows.
On an individual basis, for a young or even middle aged German with something on the ball the smart move has been emigration for quite a while and I have been urging German friends to pack their suitcases – to Switzerland if they can hack it, to the US per default, to Thailand if they can stand the heat, to El Salvador for those who want to risk going long on a value pick.
An outright ban on the only actual opposition party might have one good aspect – shake some of the right [sic] people loose before too many have decided to go and the doors slam shut.
To put it plainly, Germany isn’t getting reformed in any meaningful sense to any meaningful degree in any meaningful timeframe. Indeed, there’s a confluence of deep, generational crises that each would be enough to pretty much sink a country, and they’re all entirely baked in at this point. It’s been fun to watch the AfD go, but substantial optimism is wilful self-delusion – consider if everything went perfectly, if every single decision turned on a dime into perfection:
1. You’d be at least 10 (realistically, 20) years off the new reactor fleet coming into the grid at sufficient numbers to get energy back to prices that other locations enjoy during that whole time frame. I.e. you’re baked into most of another generation of industrial decline, which can only accelerate because networks of skill retention weaken with every company that shuts-or-leaves, impelling the next one to follow.
2. The cost of rebuilding reliable generation in Germany would preclude a ton of other urgently necessary infrastructure work, e.g. the grid not being in any way ready for full electrification, particularly of heating and mobility, overshadows that it needs a lot of maintenance anyway, even for preexisting usage patterns, not to speak of the catastrophic rail- and increasingly bad road infrastructure.
3. Even if every criminal invader was thrown out instantly by pure magic at some stroke of midnight, further decline in cohesion and sheer capacity of the population is already baked in by pure demographic momentum and differential fertility. Fixing that problem to a substantial degree would take some actually scary constitutional changes.
4. And even if none of the above were true Germany is increasingly an old folks’ home, and the health and pension systems are broke. Not even fixing, but just managing, those problems in relevant time frames will require scaled-out deployments of Canadian medicine (which are thus almost certain to come). Thus society inevitably becomes more callous, and more openly brutally utilitarian. The alternative is simple bankruptcy, possibly expressed in inflation, which also doesn’t tend to bring out the best in man.
The synthesis of those is a country of sharply declining wealth, with its diverse population increasingly unable to paper over issues with welfare spending, murdering their old and sickly in the background of increasing social strife. Why be around for it.
Mind you immigrating into the US is not as simple as it sounds. I speak of own experience. Cost me close to 3000 bucks (including 2 hotels stays when I had to be there at 8, and had to drive 2 or more hours). Being treated like a criminal in some offices, while the real criminals get free rooms, meals, phones, and cards. But you may not get angry about any of that! Not sure if Hungary is accepting anyone at all, Russia gives temporary stay obviously, and don't know about Croatia either, 3 only European countries I would consider anymore. Worldwide, El Salvador seems indeed to be the best choice.
Likewise immigrating into Germany was no picnic- even though I was married to a German. They made it very clear in the 1990’s that I was not to take a job away from a German and that my American accent would put me at a great disadvantage, with every other English speaker getting first dibs, even Germans speaking English with a heavy accent and also the Australians. Nothing against those groups, but it was a pretty hostile setting. I missed some paperwork (even with an attorney helping) and I ended up being threatened with handcuffs at a German airport. So, I think everyone should be angry at these new immigrants, it’s simply outrageous.
Note also that the mirror image of your case (hindering the productive, rolling out the red carpet for NMPIs) will happen the second remigration becomes the actual policy of any elected government:
The bureaucracy will find the hardest cases; the most sympathetic individuals and families, and push them out first. And for every case photo- and videojournalists will somehow have learned in advance where and when deportations will happen.
In this, as in many cases, the immediate problem is the “red cape” and focussing on it instead of the “matador” of the permanent bureaucracy is a huge mistake.
Without ¡afuera!, nothing is possible, with ¡afuera!, few things are even difficult.
Of course, these mechanisms are deeply entrenched in law, which means that even in the desperately unlikely case of a substantial rise to elected power by a genuine opposition (i.e. an absolute majority, since nobody would cooperate, and a supermajority for many things), there would have to be a phase when the law means exactly what the new power reads in it.
Which – for all the wannabe will to power wank many right wing posters like to engage in – in actuality is really, really bad and horribly dangerous, no matter how necessary a break with catastrophic prior structures is and no matter how well-intentioned the reformers are. Revolutions have ways to build an appetite.
Just fly to Mexico and walk across the border!
Dunno if the US is a good destination compared to Germany anyway if $3000 is a lot of money; it’s at least super high variance due to potential medical cost and (still) higher crime if you don’t live wealthy. I guess the young and ambitious would do better with employment/startup visa with an eye towards citizenship.
In middle age an investor visa at $800k-1.1m shouldn’t be very expensive (while those on the cheap end are normally not great investments because they’re tuned for being eligible at that captive investor crowd, the returns might not be great but your money wouldn’t likely just be gone, so it’s more time value than cost) for frugal good earners who put money away, even just into ETFs, early and often – that’s what I meant with “something on the ball” to be frank.
The problem with Russia, and even Hungary, is that they’re kinda shit holes outside the big premier cities. Rather poor, rather bad infra. Beautiful landscapes though in many places. Croatia seems nice but is also getting expensive in nice places.
Keep in mind that slavic countries are “classically hospitable” in that they’re friendly to visitors, but are generally rather xenophobic towards settlement, and good for them! But that’s less fun when you’re the xenos.
El Salvador is still hard to tell where it goes, and for how long. Same with Argentina.
Another weird but potentially interesting destination for Germans with professional education, particularly engineering, logistics, or international commerce experience, might be the gulf autocracies. Say about the UAE what you will, but if you’re gonna live among Arabs anyway, why not choose the high end of that spectrum.
Hungary would be my preference, or Argentina. Guyana if you don't mind the climate and Venezuela trying to start a war.
… there is also the possibility of spillover from the Ukraine war if you need another reason. But maybe if that happens it will clear out the current leadership …
Getting to the periphery and out of NATO land might yet yield benefits indeed, crazy to have to say. Another mighty big point against Russia as an emigration target that sometimes comes up for the aspirational “baste emigre” crowd.
Despite all the many and impressive improvements they’ve had, as far as western oppositional migration goes I’d still file Russia more under “passport bro” than “contender” anyway TBH.
I hate to see the destruction of beautiful things and it pains me to watch the train wreck of Germany. I can't argue with your assessment and forecast. I want to curse.
Given recent noteworthy political developments there and the...er, shall we say 'precedents', I'm astonished you left out Argentina as a destination for German emigrants.
IMO higher variance/risk than even El Salvador. The Argentinian population is a rather mixed bag and the Peronists/Kirchnerists are far from thoroughly vanquished. They seem to be stunned and stunned again by the Mileist optempo but the question is how long they can keep that up.
So far Milei has kept from being attacked by Blue Empire organisations by heavily aligning with the empire in foreign policy towards outside powers, particularly China. Argentina however – heavily indebted as it is and will remain for some time – is highly vulnerable to the DC consensus blob and it’s clear that these institutions would prefer Argentina stays mired in corruption, poverty, and hopelessness as long as it’s in the managerial style.
Even El Salvador’s rollup of evil freaks is not as heretical in this sense as ¡afuera!-ing the managers.
Personally
I’d hope for pitchforks and torches - to hell with the useless Left.
I'd say this were unbelievable if there weren't other news from Germany combined with an astonishing silence in the German MSM on this particular issue.
I also suspect the Wanderwitzian attempt has been postponed to next month in the hope of a 'good' outcome on November 5th (an intriguing historical date ...), namely a Kamala Koronation. That would make it so much easier to whip through an AfD ban - not so when Trump wins ...
Ah well, 'interesting times' and all that, innit like ...
silence is usually speaking louder than any sound. Just like with the scamdemic and the jabs. If it is silenced in the press, you know it is true.
Precisely so!
Good point. Kind of sad that our election has such an impact elsewhere.
Kinda good in this case, I’d say.
These posts have become somewhat routine at this point. I find it so hard to believe that this happening to Germany, and all the while the population largely labors under a constant stoicism, accepting whatever fate is imposed upon it.
I am not crazy about the far right, in their old, traditional sense. But, the "new" far right I am All. In.
What is ‘far right’? It seems to me that there are as many shades of ‘right ‘ politics as there are days in a year. Is the AfD far right? Or are the nut jobs like Candace Owens ‘far right’?
There are two subjects which "broke" me. The first was the covid madness, but the real big one, is this trans insanity and specifically going after kids. In my view a "doctor" who takes a knife to a child or who willingly chemically mutilates like that deserves a long prison sentence or frankly a firing squad. And I'd like to live in a society that reflects those views. Does that mean making bedfellows with some people I wouldn't have? Yes.
Important issues. I agree on both those issues. It is important to look carefully at the people we follow, though.
Far Right in Europe is anything not explicitly Marxist or Green.
My German co-workers laugh at us calling Bernie Mittens Sanders “far left”: in the EU that imbecile would be Centrist
I think that just the same everywhere.
This news, coming at the same time the Khameleon stood at a podium displaying the Seal of the Office of the Vice President, and declared that Trump was not just Hitler, but far worse and far more dangerous, in grave and apocalyptic terms, cannot be coincidence.
Should she win, I can easily see her administration orchestrating the exact same scenario here against Trump and his entire party of MAGA adherents. And our “Intel Agencies”, (as with the BfV in Germany),will be more than thrilled to supply the “evidence” needed in order to do so.
There has also recently been uncovered a feverishly coordinated effort between a UK and US conjoined group to “kill Elon Musk’s X platform”. Their word, Kill.
The Leaders of the so-called free world are in full alignment that they’ve had quite enough from the upstarts in the citizenry, and that it’s down to them to utterly silence and destroy them once and for all, and by any means necessary.
and I even don't exclude it is possible. Gates just donated a sickening amount of money to her instead of to the suffering, homeless people in North-Carolina and Tennessee, and to the starving homeless on his doorstep. If you are not yet sick of the man, this must make you.
Gates wore out the gag reflex a long time sgo.
Sorry, on a side note, just heard from my best friend in Sweden who said at a church service that “promotes NATO and peace” they actually passed around the tray and asked for donations for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation! True story, happened 1 day ago.
Just wow!!
The only way we can save Democracy is to be undemocratic. The only way to save free speech is to censor everyone online. The only way we can stop misinformation is to be sure that all information is through approved channels and fact checked by government approved fact checkers. Ain't Democracy grand? The USA is trying hard to keep up with Deutschland or maybe Deutschland is trying hard to keep up with the USA.
seems like Germany was Americanized during the 2 wars.
They will “prove right-wing extremists” exist by concluding...wait for it...that AfD appeals to the worst in us!
What they're really afraid of is having cultural diversity exposed as ideological uniformity.
If Trump has started his own political party, it would have been banned by the Uniparty. But, unfortunately for them, he and his followers have been able to seize control of one of the two major parties in the U.S., so banning is off the table.
I don't think we ban parties here in the US. We just use nefarious, underhanded means to stifle them until they expire.
Re seizing control of one of the two major parties. Bret Weinstein recently proposed a fascinating idea about how the Democrats and Republicans have reversed polarity, part of which was Trump decapitating the Republican Party.
Starts at around 36:30 https://rumble.com/v5jazyz-the-248th-evolutionary-lens-with-bret-weinstein-and-heather-heying.html
And I seriously doubt Trump has taken over one of the parties, yet. There are hundreds if not thousands of faux republicans in the party that are closet democrats if not in name but deeds.
That party was infiltrated many years ago and is beyond resuscitation.
If Trump is to build anything it should be a new party with a clean slate containing none of the current vermin.
If he can make it past the steal he should infect the party with patriots while doing as much damage as he can to the unconstitutional government.
Doing so could send a message to Germany that outlawing a major party could have serious consequences. We will know in 12 days (approximately).
That's a pretty discouraging headline. I hope, on reading the article itself, that it will turn out to be a desperation move by the government.
Photo of Thomas Haldenwang: the Marshmallowians are back!
Do you think voters would move to the BSW should this happen or will a new party rise up?
Being mostly ignorant of European politics as most of us here in the US tend to be, I have no idea! It does seem ridiculously obvious that banning a political party won't solve the problem of popular discontent. As you point out, the pressure will find another outlet.
they blocked a similar party 25 or more years ago in Belgium, but in the recent election I saw they are still active, although at a lower range. Might have ended up like the Greens, a big flame and good intentions to begin with, and after 25 years down in the gutter. The greens there are all but a forgotten party as well.
I doubt right wing AfD voters will move to the very left wing BSW. The only thing they agree on is immigration.
hate marshmallow, unless it is in those chocolate bombs we had as kids. Do they still exist? This man would be way too heavy on the stomach!
You mean Moon Pies?
Not sure if they would succeed, but anything is possible.
When that ban happens there is no saying where Germany will go after this.
I think one-in-four odds the Federal Constitutional Court would approve a ban. Before there was basically no chance that this would get out of the Bundestag, so this didn’t matter. Now those chances have dramatically increased.
But....how long would it take for it to work its way up to The Federal Constitution Board?
If it takes too long (like with SCOTUS) then the effect is de facto the same.
The Bundestag will be voting on whether to ask the Federal Constitutional Court to ban the party. So, in a sense, the case ends up before the court almost immediately – after some preliminaries. The proceedings themselves are elaborate and would likely take more than a year – that is, they would probably stretch beyond the 2025 elections. If the court really wants to ban the party, though, they will perhaps try to rush the proceedings so AfD can't run in 2025.
I propose the founding of a new political party: "Alternativen in ganz Deutschland"... :D
I think they tend to do things more quickly (I could easily be wrong), but would put money on the case being expedited.
I was very skeptical when you earlier claimed that the chances of a ban were nearly zero, but didn't know enough about German politics to argue otherwise.
Just as a matter of epistemology, if a future event goes from "nearly zero" chance to "one in four" then the original estimation of the chance was wrong. So one interesting question is, why did it previously appear so unlikely (beyond not having happened often before).
My reasoning has gone like this: For a ban to work, it has to be requested by either the government, the Bundesrat/Federal Council or the Bundestag (parliament). Only then does it go to the Federal Constitutional Court for approval or denial.
A ban has long appeared almost impossible, because the government, including Scholz and Faeser, have stated unequivocally they won't support a ban, and because the leadership of all the major parties were forthrightly against it. There was just no path towards it getting over the first hurdle. Until a few days ago, Wanderwitz was effectively collecting support from backbenchers who would not be able by themselves to achieve the necessary majority in the Bundestag, and the government was refusing and there was no interest in the Bundesrat. Sudden hints that CDU Bundestag leadership are willing to reconsider go a long way towards destroying that calculus. We're still not all the way there, and the SPD remain opposed from the leadership on down. But, it is just undeniably much more probable now.
Two things still speak against it:
1) The judges on the constitutional court aren't just going to rubber-stamp this. Even if it gets through the Bundestag it's going to be a drawn-out process.
2) It is very unlikely, because of 1), that the AfD will be banned ahead of the 2025 federal elections. The worst outcome possible, for the establishment parties, is that proceedings to ban the party are ongoing throughout the election season. This makes the AfD a victim and a martyr *while they are still running,* and this in itself is a reason to vote against a ban.
But, there are unknowns here. The head of the constitutional court is himself a CDU party member. It's possible that there is a lot of behind-the-scenes CDU party coordination – pretty clearly, the CDU-headed BfV is collaborating with CDU Bundestag member Wanderwitz to create amenable conditions for the Bundestag to apply for a ban. So, the chances of a ban are still small but no longer vanishingly so. Even odds the Bundestag approves this right now, and one-in-four odds the constitutional accord approves the ban, so a 1/8 chance overall that this succeeds.
The most pressing question for me is why no German politicians look like Sebastian Koch.
But moving right along--I guess these guys have been paying very close attention to the lawfare against Trump. In two weeks--or so--they'll know fer shure if they ought to proceed.
Sebastian Koch: he's no marshmallow!
Toothsome.
Good grief.
If I were in Germany, I would start a petition to ban CDU for Stalinist policies. Fearing that such Stalinist policies would lead inevitably and inexorably to concentration camps, Pogroms and other fascistic manifestations as has already happened in Cuba, Venezuela, Uganda and other countries. It will be easy to write such a petition, pointing out that which is already going on and developing.
Yes indeed.
Well, eugyppius brings news from Germany. I invoke the 'lib-tard' phrase in regard to the Mole known as Thomas Haldenwang.
The logic is simple. Use shallow one dimensional names, build an entire fake story about those names, and then watch as inevitably everyone eventually falls foul of the ever-changing rules.
As euguppius says, these people are 'lib-tards'. Dangerous dictators with very low IQ.
And Haldenwang's photo speaks volumes...
It would seem that unlike a real mole that uses facial hair and extra sensitive nose to move around underground, Thomas H is simply blind with no back-up systems at all. I wonder if the UK Layzee Laybour Party would care to 'consult' in this matter instead of running the country? Say, 100 'places'? All expenses paid, of course.
Just curious. Could the delay till mid-November have anything to do with the outcome of the US elections? Do American politics play a role in Germany? If Trump were elected and the Germans had just banned the conservative AfD could US and German relations be affected?
Hugely, as he might say.
Do American politics play a role in Germany? lol
The vassal doesn't take a step without keeping one eye on their parent Empire and that includes not just Germany but the entire West.
The German establishment needs to check which way the wind is blowing and the strongest wind comes from across the Atlantic.
Their next move will be decided on Nov 5, one way or other.
I think you overestimate the US’ importance in the world today. I know you all have great confidence in your importance and history but in the scheme of things your influence is waning and European history is much more important. Our last foray into holidaying in Europe with a cruise company was a revelation in just how self important the US has become. In every city except Eastern Europe we went to, the guides tailored the narrative to the majority Americans. So it was hard to get good information.
"I think you overestimate the US’ importance in the world today."
"In every city except Eastern Europe we went to, the guides tailored the narrative to the majority Americans." self-refutation?
And I'm not sure if what matters most is how important/influential America currently is vs how important/influential it is among the governing classes in Brussels and the other European capitals.
The managers of the global-corporate state, no matter which outpost they reside in, take their cues from America and know being dutiful obedient vassals is the best way to keep and maintain their positions (not to mention help push their kids up the ladder).
Mmm perhaps.
I'm sure if they ban the AfD the members and supporters will flock to center parties or even left leaning ones. NOT When humans are wronged, there is a tendency to seek "pay back." I'm sure the ruling pols never learned that lesson. Another of those "history repeating itself" issues.
I am right now having nightmares of what happens after an AfD ban. These bans of course also prohibit 'successor' or replacement parties, so what will likely ensue, is a series of legal proceedings against any post-AfD party that tries to establish itself on the basis that it is a proscribed successor.
i.e. a ban on the AfD is a de-facto ban on conservative politics in Germany.
they will try to make anything 'to the right' of the CDU (however you want to construe that) effectively illegal. something like this has never happened before. the only other banned parties – the SRP and the KPD – were quite small in comparison and outright bans therefore much more effective. here they're banning a party supported by a fifth of the population.
If I recall correctly, you said there were 50,000 members and many more that voted for AfD. You just can't turn that off. I'm sure there are a lot of "lost cause" feelings still there from the Glory Days of the 1930's. I was transferred to the deep south in the USA in 1965 and there was still a lot of feelings about a war they lost one hundred years before. I am also sure there are people in East Germany that miss the good old days. Much better to figure out how to work with AfD than to make them martyrs. If I were there,
I would be having nightmares also.
The AfD has basically nothing in common with 1930s parties though. The Nazis were a far left party, the fact that they are constantly called far right is Goebells style repetition. Look for ideological similarities between the AfD and the parties of the 30s and there are very few compared to the similarities between the ruling coalition and the 30s.
I only meant you can't just tell a large group of citizens their party is banned without sequences. The nazi party in the 1920's was very small but came back. I am not comparing which side of the spectrum each are on but just how people react to being singled out and banned. I'm sure if the Dems won everything here, President, congress they would try to single out MAGA republican's and have them banned.
I'm deeply disappointed you didn't draw whiskers on the photo of Thomas Haldenwang.