SACHSEN-ANHALT RESULTS POST: Exit polls have AfD just short of absolute Landtag majority

Here’s exit poll data from ZDF …

…and slightly different numbers from ARD:

As the headline says, these are preliminary exit-poll numbers, but historically they’re generally accurate to within a few percentage points.

In the first (ZDF) version, AfD would be one seat short of an absolute majority. CDU, SPD, Greens and Linke would be able to outvote them, 42 to 41. In the second (ARD) version, the AfD would be three seats short, because the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is scraping past 5% in this scenario. CDU, SPD, Greens and Linke would have the same share of Landtag seats as the AfD, namely 39.

Contrary to my speculations in yesterday’s post, the polls did not overstate the small parties, but rather seem to have understated them.

I have a full evening but I’ll try to update this post as new results roll in.

UPDATE 1: The big question yesterday was whether the Greens would make it in. Now the big question is whether the BSW makes it in. Despite everything Ulrich Siegmund has spent the last month saying, a five-seat BSW faction increases the chances of an AfD government substantially. AfD could receive several defections from CDU to make this happen, and the prospect of unpopular cooperation with Die Linke makes this more than conceivable. But AfD could also receive some measure of support from BSW or even enter a coalition with them, which is probably more likely than many imagine right now.