Trump: "A whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran does not reach a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz

Also open thread.

This may be a big deal.

Any escalation against energy infrastructure in Iran is highly dangerous, because it will invite Iran to retaliate against energy infrastructure in the Gulf states, which produce a great part of the world’s oil and gas. The worst result could be a years-long energy crisis that changes all of our lives even more profoundly than Covid. I’m not saying that’s going to happen or that it’s even likely to happen, but I want to be clear-eyed about the eventualities before us.

On 25 March, the United States sent via Pakistan a 15-point peace plan, demanding that the Iranians make substantial concessions with respect to their ballistic missile and nuclear programmes, and also that they reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, the Iranians responded (also via Pakistan) with their own 10-point plan, which addresses “a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions and reconstruction.” Trump has called the Iranian plan a “significant proposal” and a “very significant step,” but also “not good enough.”

I see a few possibilities:

The first is that the Americans are simply bluffing in an effort to intimidate the Iranians into making concessions. This might also explain some of Trump’s more erratic social media posts, which may be read as part of a madman strategy.

The second possibility is that Trump is totally serious, and that in a final effort to bring about a change in Iranian leadership he and the Israelis will go all out against energy targets in the Islamic Republic. I can also envision a third and middle path, in which the Americans and Israelis try a partial escalation by way of threatening more. Earlier I thought a bluff was most likely, as this kind of all-out escalation is something that was already trialled in the form of the South Pars gas field attack and swiftly walked back. Trump knows very well the potential consequences here. Now I’m not so sure, but as I said, I’m eager to hear your thoughts.

Otherwise, I want to offer this brief explanation to the many critics I provoked with my last piece: Many of you seem to have gotten the idea that I’m rooting for the Iranians or that I hope Trump suffers political catastrophe. You could not be more wrong about this. I’m fundamentally on your side here; I want the United States and Israel to realise their goals. Some are irritated that I seem to be validating what they see as anti-Trump media narratives, but that is not at all my purpose. I’m just pessimistic that the war is going well, and I’m far from the only one. A lot of people, including many sympathetic to the basic project of the war, have reached similar conclusions.

Not all gambles pay off, and we must employ a little sophistication in analysing Trump’s presidency. It’s plain that whatever Trump does, large portions of the establishment press will denounce him as a lunatic and his policies as a failure. They will do this whether or not Trump is right or his approach is successful, and we cannot just robotically invert press narratives about Trump and hope to be correct about the way of things. Trump is human, he’s a politician and not everything he touches will become gold. That’s okay, and he might still be able to turn the Iran war around. I think the chances are not great right now and while it could happen and I want it to happen, I also want to be honest with my readers and write pieces that will hold up well in the months and years to come.