UKHSA Efficacy Stats Death Watch: Week 45

Blessed silence from Humpherson – maybe the efficacy statistics will survive after all.

The Week 45 UK Health Security Agency Vaccine Surveillance Report dropped yesterday. Time for The Graph:

The report features a new section called VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS PUBLICATIONS (pp. 10–11), where the authors list all their studies showing why the vaccines are super effective at everything – another attempt to appease the statistical concern trolls at the Office for Statistics Regulation. Meanwhile, the Eye of Sauron gazes elsewhere, as noted imbecile Ed Humpherson announces that he is only semi-satisfied with improvements that Public Health Scotland have made to their test and trace statistics. “I have copied this letter to Roger Halliday, Chief Statistician, Scottish Government,” Humpherson declares. I imagine the Scots will soon call a new independence referendum, just to get away from this man.

The UKHSA efficacy numbers are still extremely unadjusted, of course. They mean absolutely nothing. Here, for example, are the totally meaningless unadjusted hospitalisation rates by vaccination status:

You can’t conclude anything from that; as the report authors say, “People who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently.” We just can’t know.

And here are the wholly unadjusted 60-day death rates by vaccination status:

Again these are just totally meaningless numbers; “the fully vaccinated may be more health conscious,” after all, so the vaccines may actually be doing zero.

I haven’t consulted Humpherson, but I imagine the raw death numbers, at least, don’t require adjustment:

Half of all Corona mortality in the UK is occurring in the 80+ crowd, and 87% of the deaths in that age bracket are fully vaccinated.