Discussion about this post

User's avatar
The Antisocial Darwinist's avatar

Great take as always, E, but I am pushing back on this statement "I’ll be honest: I don’t think what Walker describes is necessarily dangerous. The virus is already training itself against vaccine-elicited antibodies in billions of people." I am speaking as an evolutionary microbiologist, and I believe this couldn't be farther from the truth, and what they did is inherently gain-of-function in terms of enhancing virulence.

Here's my reasoning -- in nature, viruses experience three primary types of selection. The first is what you describe, which is selection to overcome immune defenses in a population that has experience with the virus. The second is selection just to make more viruses during an infection -- "scramble competition" it is called, basically favoring whichever genotype can plow through the host the fastest before killing the host or getting stopped by the immune response. And the third is selection for transmission between hosts. That is partially related to the scramble competition, but favors other things like presence in bodily fluids, survival time outside the body and so forth.

My point is that in nature, there's expected to be a tension between scramble competition -- which favors lethality -- and transmission competition, which at least in respiratory viruses favors moderate illness because it inevitably prioritizes infection of the upper respiratory tract which is uncomfortable but not dangerous. But in a laboratory serial passage experiment, my understanding is that one animal is typically directly infected by a previous animal by intentional mobilization of infectious material by the experimenters, or by placing them together one-on-one in close contact. That is going to significantly reduce the power of selection for transmissivity and favor the scramble competition evolution of virulence. It's going to make a more dangerous virus, every time.

Like you say, there's no need for serial passage experiments in a world where massive PCR+sequencing monitoring is going on for vaxx resistant mutations, and where you can chemically synthesize any mRNA you want at a moments notice to make a new vaccine. The only reason for them to be doing serial passage imho is to look for more lethal variants, possibly to develop non-vaccine therapeutics like paxlovid or something.

Expand full comment
John Carter's avatar

Probably the most damaging element of this piece of high comedy is to the image people have of The Scientists as sober lab coat nerds. Sure, sure, this guy is management, not a laboratory researcher. Doesn't really matter. The Internet just watched an emotionally unstable homosexual have a complete breakdown into incoherent flailing rage, and that lisping morally compromised midwit just happens to be in charge of riding herd over the actual scientists. That's a PR disaster right there, that is.

I also got a hearty kek out of the exchange with the reporter where the executive says, wait you're not secretly filming me are you, this feels like one of those right wing sting operations.

"No, no, not at all!" *sultry gaze*

"Oh okay then."

We prayed to make our enemies ridiculous, and the Lord granted that and made them stupid in the bargain.

Expand full comment
437 more comments...

No posts