In Germany these polls after election close are usually very accurate.
They are the exit polls, and most people vote in person.
This is also why we believe imn Germany that election fraud is small.
I think that was the same in the USA some decades ago. But then mail in voting started, and now it seems the polls in the USA are not very accurate, it takes many hours, days, weeks even to get a final result, and fraud is rampant.
They ceased exit polling in the USA after the 2004 exit polls in Ohio showed GHE Bush losing Ohio. However, counties using electronic voting machines showed a surge in Republican voters after 7 PM, and Bush won those counties, Ohio, and the Presidency. The exit poll for that election had a sample size of 12,000 voters, about 10x-20x a typical ‘opinion’ poll; the poll showed John Kerry winning Ohio by about 2%.
I thought they were not final yet, just projections. Personally, after 2016 I don't pay much attention to polling. We'll get the final numbers at some point, and then we can tear out our hair or celebrate or whatever.
Well, it's like the polls here in the US, really. The Democrats are tearing their hair (in all its rainbow glory) out over it being neck-and-neck when they can't understand how they haven't managed, despite every demonization trick in the handbook, to generate a landslide.
But being that close is a very considerable victory.
It would be smart for Republicans to increase their ground game so much that they tally every mailed-in vote by a voluntary submission of data to a website or even a paper list. That's how one wins. If you do not trust the system then create your own tracking mechanism.
It would be smart and I suppose that's why they won't do it.
Dems always have a better ground game. Was visited twice yesterday by Dem canvassers.
One of them said she was a single issue voter and that issue was abortion. She was alarmed that Trump said he would sign a national abortion ban if it crossed his desk. I suggested she relax: the Republicans aren't going to ban abortion nationwide for the same reason her Dems never codified Roe vs Wade in 50 years.
Unfortunately neither party has any respect for our Constitutional values. Each is more than happy to constrain freedom for those whose ideas they dislike.
Do you have a link for that, BigE? Because if true, there are some VA dems that who need their noses rubbed in this great news, and I'm just the one to do it....
Only tangentially related, but this was pretty eye-opening for someone who has never worked in a corporate environment (that would be me): "I Blew Up My Lucrative Public-Service Career (And So Can You)—A veteran of British Columbia’s public-sector workforce explains how DEI enforcers forced him to choose between keeping his job and honouring his values." https://quillette.com/2024/09/16/i-blew-up-my-lucrative-public-service-career/
Terminology: "nomadic" is out, replaced by "Intentional seasonal movement" 🤣
I think these Renaming Experts get paid by the additional syllable.
> The car you drive (on government-paved roads) isn’t a death trap because manufacturers are required to follow government regulations.
No, you giant statist twatwaffle (Not you, Tardigrade, I know you didn't write this, but it's not on Substack so I can't roast the guy's article directly) my car isn't a deathtrap because people wanted safer cars so the manufacturers responded to market demand. And governments don't pave roads, at least not in the US. They pay private companies to pave roads. And it's not like in the absence of governments, people would suddenly stop wanting to facilitate trade and travel.
Gods above and below, but I hate that stupid "But Muh Roadz!" argument for government.
> And you can go to bed at night knowing that if someone tries to break into your house, you can call the police, who have a government-supplied monopoly on the use of force.
I can go to bed at night, knowing that if someone tries to break in, I can dump a load of double-ought into them, and then call the police to come clean it up.
Seriously, there's like fifteen steps between my front door and my bed, and my bed is actually *under* the big front window. (It's a small apartment.) The police wouldn't have even *answered the phone* by the time whoever was breaking in had reached me, let alone shown up to "save me" from the burglar. Oi. Canadians. *sigh*
Shockingly, this was where I gave up on this article... 🤣
I mean, it started off like it could have been a "They were going to force me to support transitioning kids, so I quit" kinda story. And then... well, I dunno what it turned into, because it got real dumb real fast after that, and I stopped reading it. :D
I live here as an old school leftist and I am looking forward to a possible Conservative Party win on October 19th (provincial election). The election is neck and neck here between the Woke New Democratic Party (NDP) and the B.C. Conservatives.
Like this guy in the article you linked to, I worked for a British Columbia government crown corporation, BC Housing. The same sort of things were happening there that this guy talks about, and in end I quit too. Although in my case it was because of the vaccine mandates, which I didn't give in to. In the end, this particular crown corporation didn't follow through on their threat to fire those few of us that didn't comply, but a few months after this, I thought, I don't want to work here anymore anyway, even though I wasn't fired in the end, because what nonsense are they going to try to force down my throat next? Like he says, it's a long game to make it work - for the pension. A gilded cage.
Now I have a job managing a little local B&B and I'm a million times happier, though without the long term safety net of a pension. But I feel freer, and more productive in my work, and am working on figuring out a way to secure myself for the future and old age.
The article you provided a link to describes what a teacher friend of mine is experiencing in a public elementary school in B.C. The exact same "causes" - the DEI, anti colonialism, reconcilation and trans/ rainbow mafia- esque religion all wrapped up in one big anxiety producing bow.
One coffin and one urn after another bring us closer to an AfD majority. SPD boomers will keep trying to ruin this land until the last vote cast by their arthritic, twitching hands tho, that much is certain by now.
Would be interesting to see an analysis of where the votes are coming from and going to. Just glancing at the charts, it seems BSW is taking Linke and Green votes, with AfD taking from CDU.
In one sense that’s encouraging - the centrist parties must be smashed if there’s to be any progress on the vital issues, as happened to the GOP in America. But in another it’s discouraging in that no one is actually being “converted” by this significant crisis, they’re just moving farther out on the spectrum of their own ideologies.
Those are some very nice looking doors you have there. Oak, would be my first guess from the look of it. Do not let some fast-talker try and wheedle you out of them if you renovate - old craftsmanship doesn't depreciate in value, since there's nothing new of quality being produced.
A good solid oaken door will last centuries if given proper care - ain't nothing produced by capitalist corporations that can hold a candle to real quality.
So, the newest poll now: SPD 30,9, AfD 29,7; CDU 11,8 (not a good idea of them to cogitate deeply after the other East German state elections whether it might be a good idea to join up with hard-left BSW).
Greens 4,3 -> OUT (unless, of course interesting developments ensue)
Linke (hard left) 3 -> OUT
BSW 12.9 (hard-left points as well as a harder stance on immigration, pro peace with Russia apparently)
FDP -> so tiny it is subsumed under "others".
So from the ruling coalition, only 1 party has made it into state parliament: SPD. Greens and FDP are hugely unpopular. I feel very sorry for FDP, Germany would really profit from a proper liberal (in the classic European sense) party.
i feel much the same about FDP, they have been unreliable for years, the ampel is only most recent example. perhaps we have glimmerings of proper liberal party in AfD, or as henryk broder sometimes calls it, the AfDP.
Yes, I also think this is it for FDP for the time being, whether they get the Ampel to implode or not. AfD as a liberal party way down the road is an option, but much infighting would be necessary to get there, I think.
But with the SPD only leading by ~2% in both polls, it's a very enco-uraging sign for the future IMO.
As I've opined before, the worldwide left has artificially kept the pendulum that is politics held to their side for a generation or two too long, and when it comes back, it's going to come back like a tsumani.
Great house. Is this an improvement for the AFD vs the last state elections in Brandenburg? I also find it telling the SPD in Brandenburg are trying to distance themselves from the national chancellery in Berlin… this coalitions days are numbered
I wonder if there is the "shy" AfD voter that could be throwing off the polls?
In the US the "shy" Trump voter is roughly 4-7% of the electorate.
So I wonder if we can trust these polls given AfD has just recently become more than a mere party of protest
It'll be interesting to see.
In Germany these polls after election close are usually very accurate.
They are the exit polls, and most people vote in person.
This is also why we believe imn Germany that election fraud is small.
I think that was the same in the USA some decades ago. But then mail in voting started, and now it seems the polls in the USA are not very accurate, it takes many hours, days, weeks even to get a final result, and fraud is rampant.
Thx for explaining Andreas. I'm still learning about German politics, etc.
What he said goes for everywhere that is not america btw, especially having to vote in person.
They ceased exit polling in the USA after the 2004 exit polls in Ohio showed GHE Bush losing Ohio. However, counties using electronic voting machines showed a surge in Republican voters after 7 PM, and Bush won those counties, Ohio, and the Presidency. The exit poll for that election had a sample size of 12,000 voters, about 10x-20x a typical ‘opinion’ poll; the poll showed John Kerry winning Ohio by about 2%.
I thought they were not final yet, just projections. Personally, after 2016 I don't pay much attention to polling. We'll get the final numbers at some point, and then we can tear out our hair or celebrate or whatever.
Oh I see.
Well, it's like the polls here in the US, really. The Democrats are tearing their hair (in all its rainbow glory) out over it being neck-and-neck when they can't understand how they haven't managed, despite every demonization trick in the handbook, to generate a landslide.
But being that close is a very considerable victory.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State reports GOP requests for mail-in ballots is 2x 2020, where DEM requests are off by 1/3.
Not a poll.. Actual numbers. Trump lost PA in 2020 by only 80,000 votes.
Hair pulling will increase.
"Trump lost PA in 2020 by only 80,000 votes." --- 79k of which were likely those turn up in the unmarked van dead of the night votes
In fact, it has been shown that more than 100,000 votes in Pennsylvania were cast by people not constitutionally qualified to vote.
It would be smart for Republicans to increase their ground game so much that they tally every mailed-in vote by a voluntary submission of data to a website or even a paper list. That's how one wins. If you do not trust the system then create your own tracking mechanism.
glad to read that GA is going to hand count
It would be smart and I suppose that's why they won't do it.
Dems always have a better ground game. Was visited twice yesterday by Dem canvassers.
One of them said she was a single issue voter and that issue was abortion. She was alarmed that Trump said he would sign a national abortion ban if it crossed his desk. I suggested she relax: the Republicans aren't going to ban abortion nationwide for the same reason her Dems never codified Roe vs Wade in 50 years.
Unfortunately neither party has any respect for our Constitutional values. Each is more than happy to constrain freedom for those whose ideas they dislike.
Oohh thats a bingo!
Abortion is the brutal murder of a beautiful innocent defenseless unborn baby.
Except that Trump didn't really lose PA in 2020
At least we know how come so many people are suddenly bald, that they are not all chemo patients...
Do you have a link for that, BigE? Because if true, there are some VA dems that who need their noses rubbed in this great news, and I'm just the one to do it....
Gent, I dug up the corresponding web-link:
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/09/21/exclusive-cliff-maloney-voter-registration-ballot-requests-show-trump-has-the-edge-in-pennsylvania/
Title: Exclusive — Cliff Maloney: Voter Registration, Ballot Requests Show Trump ‘Has the Edge’ in Pennsylvania
Aha, Perfect! Thank you for the link, BigE.
Even Duck-Duck-Go didn't turn this one up, which makes me think they might be going the way of Google after initially talking a good game....
Duck Duck has gone mainstream. It now suppresses politically unacceptable news.
I heard it on the Breitbart Saturday podcast. The host was interviewing a PA GOP operative.
Someday, we should and must have a line for rejection of candidates for offices.
So the SPD are, at best, barely clinging on in their own heartland, only by distancing themselves from their federal counterparts?
Only tangentially related, but this was pretty eye-opening for someone who has never worked in a corporate environment (that would be me): "I Blew Up My Lucrative Public-Service Career (And So Can You)—A veteran of British Columbia’s public-sector workforce explains how DEI enforcers forced him to choose between keeping his job and honouring his values." https://quillette.com/2024/09/16/i-blew-up-my-lucrative-public-service-career/
Terminology: "nomadic" is out, replaced by "Intentional seasonal movement" 🤣
I think these Renaming Experts get paid by the additional syllable.
Ugh.
> The car you drive (on government-paved roads) isn’t a death trap because manufacturers are required to follow government regulations.
No, you giant statist twatwaffle (Not you, Tardigrade, I know you didn't write this, but it's not on Substack so I can't roast the guy's article directly) my car isn't a deathtrap because people wanted safer cars so the manufacturers responded to market demand. And governments don't pave roads, at least not in the US. They pay private companies to pave roads. And it's not like in the absence of governments, people would suddenly stop wanting to facilitate trade and travel.
Gods above and below, but I hate that stupid "But Muh Roadz!" argument for government.
> And you can go to bed at night knowing that if someone tries to break into your house, you can call the police, who have a government-supplied monopoly on the use of force.
I can go to bed at night, knowing that if someone tries to break in, I can dump a load of double-ought into them, and then call the police to come clean it up.
Seriously, there's like fifteen steps between my front door and my bed, and my bed is actually *under* the big front window. (It's a small apartment.) The police wouldn't have even *answered the phone* by the time whoever was breaking in had reached me, let alone shown up to "save me" from the burglar. Oi. Canadians. *sigh*
Shockingly, this was where I gave up on this article... 🤣
Just keep the “00” close(see castle doctrine)and remember, if you were in fear for your life, make sure to let the cleaning crew know this…
I was *absolutely* in fear for my life, and shot to stop the threat.
I'm surprised you made it that far.
I mean, it started off like it could have been a "They were going to force me to support transitioning kids, so I quit" kinda story. And then... well, I dunno what it turned into, because it got real dumb real fast after that, and I stopped reading it. :D
British Columbia aka California North.
I live here as an old school leftist and I am looking forward to a possible Conservative Party win on October 19th (provincial election). The election is neck and neck here between the Woke New Democratic Party (NDP) and the B.C. Conservatives.
Like this guy in the article you linked to, I worked for a British Columbia government crown corporation, BC Housing. The same sort of things were happening there that this guy talks about, and in end I quit too. Although in my case it was because of the vaccine mandates, which I didn't give in to. In the end, this particular crown corporation didn't follow through on their threat to fire those few of us that didn't comply, but a few months after this, I thought, I don't want to work here anymore anyway, even though I wasn't fired in the end, because what nonsense are they going to try to force down my throat next? Like he says, it's a long game to make it work - for the pension. A gilded cage.
Now I have a job managing a little local B&B and I'm a million times happier, though without the long term safety net of a pension. But I feel freer, and more productive in my work, and am working on figuring out a way to secure myself for the future and old age.
The article you provided a link to describes what a teacher friend of mine is experiencing in a public elementary school in B.C. The exact same "causes" - the DEI, anti colonialism, reconcilation and trans/ rainbow mafia- esque religion all wrapped up in one big anxiety producing bow.
I read it on the Daily Mail Online.
And that dear little Claire Lehmann of Quillette--
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10260599/Aussies-hit-Americans-calling-NT-quarantine-centre-concentration-camp.html
Exciting times - never did I think German elections would become so fascinating to me.
I know. I'm almost more invested in Germanys election than the US.
It helps that I finally understand the politics over there...courtesy of E's "lessons".
I’m hoping ‘democracy’ is destroyed but too bad the SPD is leading so far.
Eugyppius, thanks for teaching us about German politics and keeping us up to date on what is happening there.
One coffin and one urn after another bring us closer to an AfD majority. SPD boomers will keep trying to ruin this land until the last vote cast by their arthritic, twitching hands tho, that much is certain by now.
Huge ships take a long time to change course; the trend is turning and will continue because of the huge momentum contained it the movement.
And there are still many Boomers to go. The youngest ones are only about 60.
Would be interesting to see an analysis of where the votes are coming from and going to. Just glancing at the charts, it seems BSW is taking Linke and Green votes, with AfD taking from CDU.
In one sense that’s encouraging - the centrist parties must be smashed if there’s to be any progress on the vital issues, as happened to the GOP in America. But in another it’s discouraging in that no one is actually being “converted” by this significant crisis, they’re just moving farther out on the spectrum of their own ideologies.
Those are some very nice looking doors you have there. Oak, would be my first guess from the look of it. Do not let some fast-talker try and wheedle you out of them if you renovate - old craftsmanship doesn't depreciate in value, since there's nothing new of quality being produced.
A good solid oaken door will last centuries if given proper care - ain't nothing produced by capitalist corporations that can hold a candle to real quality.
So, the newest poll now: SPD 30,9, AfD 29,7; CDU 11,8 (not a good idea of them to cogitate deeply after the other East German state elections whether it might be a good idea to join up with hard-left BSW).
Greens 4,3 -> OUT (unless, of course interesting developments ensue)
Linke (hard left) 3 -> OUT
BSW 12.9 (hard-left points as well as a harder stance on immigration, pro peace with Russia apparently)
FDP -> so tiny it is subsumed under "others".
So from the ruling coalition, only 1 party has made it into state parliament: SPD. Greens and FDP are hugely unpopular. I feel very sorry for FDP, Germany would really profit from a proper liberal (in the classic European sense) party.
i feel much the same about FDP, they have been unreliable for years, the ampel is only most recent example. perhaps we have glimmerings of proper liberal party in AfD, or as henryk broder sometimes calls it, the AfDP.
Yes, I also think this is it for FDP for the time being, whether they get the Ampel to implode or not. AfD as a liberal party way down the road is an option, but much infighting would be necessary to get there, I think.
But with the SPD only leading by ~2% in both polls, it's a very enco-uraging sign for the future IMO.
As I've opined before, the worldwide left has artificially kept the pendulum that is politics held to their side for a generation or two too long, and when it comes back, it's going to come back like a tsumani.
And we'll all still be literally Hitler....
Beautiful place you got!
Bavaria is beautiful.
That too!
Great house. Is this an improvement for the AFD vs the last state elections in Brandenburg? I also find it telling the SPD in Brandenburg are trying to distance themselves from the national chancellery in Berlin… this coalitions days are numbered
Ooo the new house looks nice!
Beautiful stained glass, wood floors, light, high ceilings---hope you will be profoundly happy there.