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Radagast's avatar

Interesting article as always, but I think you're skipping over a far more crucial point when it comes to the effectiveness of these vaccines. All these comparisons are based on raw unadjusted data, which only makes sense when the unvaccinated demographic serves as a proper control group for the vaccinated population.

When 95% of elderly are vaccinated, as is the case throughout the UK, the remaining 5% who didn't get vaccinated are no longer by any means a proper control group for the ones who did get vaccinated. In the UK, black elderly are much more likely to be unvaccinated. However, black elderly were always far more susceptible to developing severe disease than white elderly anyway.

The remaining elderly who are unvaccinated are almost guaranteed to be a demographic in much worse health than those who did get vaccinated. In other words, the comparison is inherently flawed. There exists no proper control group for the vaccinated population anymore and so to determine the effectiveness of these vaccines our best hope is to simply look into other sources of data, like excess mortality and wastewater RNA analysis.

If you look at those data, I think you'll come to the same conclusion as I did, namely that we already entered negative efficacy territory in the UK. The vaccines work for a few months, in a population where most people remain unvaccinated. By the time most people are vaccinated, the vaccine no longer works. The Motte has already fallen if you know what to look for.

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VeryVer's avatar

The only reason to take the shots for most people is to temporarily lessen you're already low risk of dying. Presumably. I'm surprised that the govt cares so much about this particular risk: they still let us drink, smoke and drive fast cars. If you listen closely, most politicians don't even actually say *why* we all must get vaccinated: they only say lame platitudes like, "It's the best way to protect yourself" or "It's our best defense," or "we need to work together," without actually making any specific claims. They are relying on the public and media to "fill in" the information with assumptions about it being a sterilizing vaccine, or preventing spread, or enabling things to go back to normal. Then when pressed, just as you say, they retreat to "we never said that."

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