New Polling Data Confirms Musk Effect on Support for Alternative für Deutschland

Also open thread.

With just seven weeks until the federal elections on 23 February, Alternative für Deutschland continue to gather strength. The latest poll, conducted by INSA for the BILD newspaper, places their support at 21.5% – their highest showing in a whole year.

Because the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (and the CSU in Bavaria) will not govern with the AfD, the math just gets harder and harder for them. There are many unknowns, but if these numbers were election results, a CDU/CSU and Green coalition would probably not have a majority, and even a CDU/CSU coalition with the Social Democrats would likely command only a microscopic (and probably unworkable) majority of eight seats.¹

As you may remember, Musk has stated many times now that “Only the AfD can save Germany.” INSA have asked German voters whether they agree with this sentiment, and the results are intriguing. Here are the numbers broken down by party – green indicates agreement with the statement that “The Alternative für Deutschland is the last spark of hope for this country,” and red disgagreement:

It is unsurprising that almost one-fourth of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht supporters agree with the proposition that the AfD are Germany’s last hope, but curious that almost one-fifth of market-liberal FDP voters agree, as well as substantial minorities of Social Demorats and CDU/CSU supporters. Even one in eleven Greens tell pollsters that they think only the AfD can save Germany! One would love to have a conversation with these strange people.

The graph that really matters, however, is this one. It looks at likely German voters in general, and finds that 29% agree that only the AfD can save Germany:

That is substantially in excess of AfD’s present polling numbers, and it means that Musk’s endorsement has the potential to drive their support much higher. Our antidemocratic American billionaire is effectively increasing the likelihood that the next elections see a so-called Kenya coalition of Greens, Social Democrats and CDU/CSU – perhaps the most dysfunctional combination imaginable, one that would discredit all involved and likely leave the AfD as the strongest party in Germany in 2029.

1. This footnote is not for the faint of heart.

A great deal depends on whether Die Linke, despite their weak polling at only 3% (well under the cutoff of 5%) are able to squeeze back into the Bundestag via the so-called Grundmandatsklausel, or the “direct mandate clause.”

This provision allows small parties that fail to meet the 5% cutoff to enter the Bundestag anyway, if they win three direct mandates. Voters in German elections have two votes: they cast their first vote directly for candidates in their district (Germany is divided into 299 districts for the purposes of federal elections), and their second vote for their preferred party. The 299 directly elected candidates enter the Bundestag with direct mandates, and the remaining 331 seats are awarded to party list candidates proportionally, so that the Bundestag reflects the general proportions of “second votes” that each party received.

The big question, is whether Die Linke will win three direct mandates. The press are totally ignoring this matter, but it is enormously significant, because the size of the Bundestag is fixed at 630 seats. Seats ceded to Die Linke are seats denied to CDU/CSU, the Greens and the SPD, which will make forming a majority that much harder for them. Die Linke seem poised to win in two districts (one in Berlin, one in Leipzig), and they are running their star Thüringen candidate Bodo Ramelow in a third (Weimar). If Ramelow wins, as seems possible if not probable, Die Linke will enter the Bundestag, and life will get that much harder for the major parties. My math in the paragraph above assumes that Die Linke win three direct mandates.