85 Comments

On my first medical rotation in the 3rd year of medical school, I was caring for a 43 year old black woman in Jamaica, Queens, NY. She was suffering from thyrotoxicosis and needed her thyroid partially ablated. 3 of her relatives had the same condition and after ablation had put on significant weight. So, she refused the ablation for that reason.

I spent more than 2 hours discussing this with her. Attempted every line of reasoning I could muster and she was adamantly opposed. In the end, she could see that I cared and that I was frustrated... she put her hand on the back of my hand and said to me:

"Dear, don't you know... You can't argue with ignorance."

That was a moment of clarity that has clung to me for 40 years now. It is my reaction to Eugyppius' argument. We are in a time of both mass delusion, and a time of Great Evil. There is a malign force that has preyed on the most Amygdaloid Fears of each and every soul. It has poured in through the appetures of Media, mesmerized Physicians and Power-Hungry Politicians. We must fight this fight. We cannot let the "Darkness Roll Back In" and mangle the lives of our fellow humans, and shred the edifice of Western Civilization.

WE MUST FIGHT THE IGNORANCE, THE INTRANSIGENCE, THE MALIGNANT EVIL OF THE ELITE LEADERSHIP CLASS.

THANK YOU EUGYPPIUS FOR PROVIDING THIS FORUM.

Expand full comment
author

thank you, delcina skrubbs, for a fantastic comment.

Expand full comment

And for a totally awesome pen name!

Expand full comment

Delcina Skrubbs was the name of my Girl Friend when I was attending Transylvania College in Lexington, KY circa 1976... She has always been on my "Best All-Time Name List" along with the starting backfield for the 1971 Nebraska Cornhuskers: "Jarvis Redwine & I. M. Hipp"!!!

Expand full comment

We are in the end stage of a malignant cancer that has infected the hearts, minds & souls of a few generations of people. From the idiotic leaders to the even dumber followers, they seem intent on self-immolation. I agree that we must fight the ignorance, but God is going to sort out the rest.

Expand full comment

Doesn't matter whether those who oppress us are evil or incompetent. Only their actions matter. We should respond to the actions, not the motives.

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

Epic response :)

Expand full comment

100%. I think this ignorance applies to the Corona skeptic side too. As Eugyppius has said in his new podcast, the temptation to build a complicated conspiracy theory that explains everything is harming the pro-normal-life side. People need to be much less confident in their conspiratorial proposals, and much less ambitious in how much they explain! There's no sinister, inner circle running all this. Rather, many sinister/retarded circles, stumbling between unstable, emergent equilibria. The people pushing the fear are disorganized and making it up as they go along.

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

The lockdowns are the isolation piece of the fear cycle that caused this mass psychosis. Ebbing in and out of increased panic, then isolation. Return some freedoms and let people feel the slightest hint of normalcy and then bring back the panic and isolate. It is highly effective. I have to acknowledge the brilliance in the design, even while noting how evil it is.

We all know someone (likely many) in our lives who we once respected, who stood out as the most intelligent in our social sphere, who fell victim to the fear cycle. Another piece to the isolation aspect of this plan. Those of us who have remained unmanipulated, unafraid and with open eyes, have to mourn a different kind of loss.

Expand full comment

Well said!

Expand full comment

I've definitely felt like I gone through a mourning process for quite a while, a letting go, and I am experiencing a growing resolve for whatever is to come. Not acceptance! But a strength and willingness to weather whatever I need to on my terms.

Expand full comment

I am still having a hard time attributing to being malicious what can just be put down to incompetence. There's a reason that the dummies end up in gov ... it's an easy job for them, with lower pay than the market, and good bennies.

These dummies *have* found themselves in a position of power, even on the micro level. For example at the local rec center, inventing silly rules that just as quickly went away. Having met these dummies, I'm having a hard time getting me to believe that they're thinking ahead, and have some sort of plan. Nah, they're just reactive, risk adverse, local, state or fed dummies.

Expand full comment

*If* there are bad actors at some global level who perpetuated all of this, they are using the dummies at the government level to their advantage, knowing exactly how they will seek power and push bad policies to keep it. All part of the game.

I have a notecard at my desk that says "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence/stupidity/neglect/ignorance." I remind myself constantly to consider the incompetence factor in all of this. Reckless research studies lead to an accidental release. Dummies see an opportunity to gain power. Big Pharma exploits this to make billions in profit. - The entire thing nothing more than bumbling idiots drunk off greed and power.

However, my eyes dart back to malice frequently. There is so much incentive for powerful actors who sincerely believe that human testing, suffering and death are necessary sacrifices to be made in order to achieve aims 'for the good of the planet and humanity'. These things are out in the open: The World Economic Forum's 'The Great Reset', The Gates Foundation 'Event 201' exercise in October 2019, the drive for AI + human interfacing (ie. Elon Musk's Neuralink), the billions in profit potential from mRNA technology therapies, etc.

Expand full comment

Some dummies are benign, a few are malicious. They're not mutually exclusive conditions.

Expand full comment

This.

Expand full comment

Part of this can be attributed to stupidity, part incompetence, but there is an element of malice interwoven as well. Of course there are those that have been terrorized and brow beaten into "believers" and there are certainly a lot of them, but when you look at the puppet masters with their edicts, it's quite chilling to see them doing everything with a means to and ends that may or may not be obvious or fully known. The best example is the restriction of potential early treatments from those with in the political sphere. No HCQ, No Ivm, etc. I saw recently that Australia banned the use of IVM except for the use of documented parasitical diagnoses. Wouldn't they want people to work with their doctor to get well asap? Now I just read a study out of Spain last year that treated all the older folks early with simple antibiotics and antihistamines and NO ONE DIED! Will they start banning Zyrtec and Claritin now just to further the misery of their "subjects"?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1094553921000018

Expand full comment

CVS and Walgreens...and probably other pharmacy chains...will not fill a prescription for ivermectin for C19 prophylaxis and treatment...if you can find a doctor to prescribe it. Many (most?) insurance companies will not pay for ivermectin for C19.

Australia has banned doctors from prescribing ivermectin for C19. I've seen videos of people claiming that hospitals are using ivermectin on hospitalized vaxxed patients...but not unvaxxed patients. Haven't been able to confirm this. Last year, Australia actually jailed doctors for treating patients with HCQ.

Why are governments acting against the interests of their people?

Expand full comment

That is what is so astounding to me....the otherwise very intelligent people that have completely fallen for all of this.

Expand full comment

The only way I can make sense of it in my mind is that intelligence and ability to recognize patterns and inconsistencies were secondary to one's reaction when they perceived they were being faced with their own mortality and the potential loss of those around them.

Expand full comment

FEAR MONGERING LEADING TO MASS PSYCHOSIS.

Expand full comment

As has been stated far too many times. SARS CoV-2 is among us and will not depart. We must learn to live with what cannot be extirpated. We must turn to Wisdom, rather than fawningly rely on Hubris. If you have been infected, you are likely safe. If not, hold on, seek those offering Wisdom and real treatment.

I took an Oath: Primum non noncere. It is estimated that 45,000+ human souls have died from this Experimental Biologic Injection... That is "Doing Harm!". Also, the Medical & Political Apparatus has abandoned even the pretext of early treatment. The Practioners of "New Religion of the Great Reset" all sing from the same hymnal... Stay Home... Wait to becone ill... Come to the hospital and generate billions of Dollars, Pounds, Francs or Deutsche Marks. YOU WILL OWN NOTHING, NOT EVEN YOUR LIVES... BUT, YOU WILL BE HAPPY!!!

It is estimated that of the 715,000 lives lost in Amerika 85% could have been saved with early inexpensive home interventions such as Vit D, Zinc, Ivermectin, or HCQ. Where are the souls of these purveyors of pestilence who suppress knowledge? Perhaps Dante will carve an 11th Circle in Hell for them?

Today, YouTube has announced it will ban all channels voicing any opposition to the Vaxx. The Purges begin. Tomorrow the Gulags!

Here is Peter McCullough, MD with an encompassing look at what has been done. What should have been done? And, the Black Souls of those devouring humankind:

https://rumble.com/embed/vj47ko/?pub=4

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

It's a perfect storm, misguided dietary guidelines that induced illness and created the medical industrial complex (Drs. Chris Knobbe, Paul Mason, Gary Fettke, Tim Noakes). Which also decreased intelligence, compounded by, or used to hide it's manifestation, by the mislabeled "educational" indoctrination system. Now the giddy at the top can't help themselves as they subject their followers to an experimental treatment, that if it doesn't initially kill you, will have untold consequences as a direct result of the cross reactivity to tumor suppression functions (expect cancer and autoimmune disease #'s to increase), will have who knows what epigenetic consequences on children born to mothers' who are conceived after THEIR mother was vaccinated and possibly result in more virulent virus strains down the road.

It brings up the premise of the book, The Unthinkable by Amanda Ripley, and how we do not always respond correctly in times of crises.

At this point, I feel I'm just watching many Titanic's crashing into ice bergs, one after another.

Expand full comment

Perhaps, the consequences you point out may, in fact, occur... or perhaps not. They are potential unknowns and represent the reasons previous therapies have been slowly and judiciously enacted. What I find more loathsome and frightening is this evolving abrogation of human dignity and freedom of choice.

There are now actions being taken every day which violate the edicts of The Nuremberg Code (http://www.cirp.org/library/ethics/nuremberg/) and The 1975 Declaration of Helsinki (https://www.who.int/bulletin/archives/79%284%29373.pdf). The abridgment of the rights & sanctity of individuals along with their constituent populations is beyond troubling. Moreover, the naked 'Will to Power' of the Leadership Class and those pulling the strings above them is despicably beyond words. We must endeavor to restore balance and sanity to a system that has shown itself to be essentially broken beyond repair.

Expand full comment

Thank you for this information. I watched every word. He says “BE UNBREAKABLE.” This will be the fight of our lives. I am in my 70s and still have some fight left! No vaccine! God bless you all!

Expand full comment

I think it's important to consider that the vaccine itself isn't the evil here. Indeed it may be a smart choice for somebody in their 70's depending on innate immune system and other health factors. Cost/benefit calculation isn't the same for everybody.

It's the mass vaccination campaign and state sponsored coercion with the aide of the willing accomplishes in the media and academia that is the evil here. Don't let one blind you from the other.

Expand full comment

Maybe you could address the adverse events

Expand full comment

The adverse events (immediate or short term) are real, but when set against the backdrop of the sheer volume of vaccinations aren't statistically as significant as possibly you believe (see some of the discussion below on that).

The older you are, the less relevant the longer term risks are, which are likely more significant, than the immediate risks. It all needs to be considered, but most importantly it needs to be considered using the appropriate perspectives and individual age/health based risk profiles.

Expand full comment

Ok so now address the issue of early treatment which most of USA has not gotten

Expand full comment

The issue with it is the powers that be have made that difficult to do.

Expand full comment

There are some pretty solid analyses that put the total covid vaccine caused deaths well above 45K:

http://www.skirsch.com/covid/Deaths.pdf

My favorite analysis based on VAERS is to compare the VAERS reported rate of immediate anaphylaxis to the rate of same found by researchers in a hospital setting. That method results in a 41x under reporting factor, or ~200K deaths in the US alone.

And that's before you factor in unknown long term risks, risk of VEI, waning immunity, and the value of early treatment as an alternative. It's nuts!

Expand full comment

In no way do I dispute the possibility that VAERS numbers are grossly underreported. The purpose of VAERS is to point to a signal. When the Swine Flu vaccine (An actual vaccine) had immunized 25 million people CDC saw that there were 17 deaths and halted vaccinations. The point here is to note that the current CDC/FDA complex has seen 3,000 fold more deaths with the mRNA Biologics and maintain both the "SAFETY" & "EFFICACY". My only point was the abdication of responsibility by our so-called Healthcare Leadership.

Expand full comment

totally agree that even the raw numbers are unacceptable, and the absolute denial of this reality is troubling to say the least.

our pediatrician seems ok with this, saying "oh it's just under a microscope blah blah blah".. totally insane. you think these problems that show up and kill 0.1% of the people, aren't going to do any long term damage to developing children?????

Expand full comment

There are so many more things that can go wrong... ADE, Birth Defects, Infertility, etc... and you never see that signal until years go by... There is some horrible ruse being perpetrated. I'm not religious, but there is something both conspiratorial going on. But, more than conspiracy, I feel there is some form of EVIL. It sounds strange to say it. But Climate Change Hoaxes, Green New Deals, The Great Reset, Building Back Better all these major dramatic changes all at once. Things feel wrong. Very, very wrong. That's all I can say.

Expand full comment

I am also not religious .. honestly rethinking that though .. and in part because of similar thinking about what is at the root of all this that is going on.

Can it all just be garden variety greed on the part of a bunch of psychopaths who just don't care, trying to sell the next vaccine? Killing the customers isn't a good long term strategy. Though I guess they also make a lot of customers.

Or is it the billionaires club decided we need to solve climate change and create a new feudalism with war-free depopulation? Makes me wonder how our last few world wars got started.

Or is it not even human.. an AI got loose or aliens trying to affect change. That sounds crazy but then again I'm also considering religion :) Maybe WEF types aren't exactly human. One thing's for sure, AI tools can have incredible power vs. a population suffused in social media.

Those of us who are socialized humans have a hard time realizing what it is to not be such.

Expand full comment

Like you, have been agnostic since 13 years old. But, one has to recognize 'Pure Malignant Evil' as it rears its chilling face. The magnetic field of the Earth has dropped 25% (and accelerating). The Magnetic Poles are both migrating faster & faster. North has crossed "Zero" latitude & heading for Siberia, South has left Antarctica heading into the Indian Ocean. We are talking Sodom & Gomorrah shit going down. And all this Gender Fluidity, LGBTQ lunacy. Something wicked and Biblical is afoot. In a way, it may be good to be over 70 with no offspring at this point.

Expand full comment

Could even be worse. A lot of reactions aren't reported.

Expand full comment

that's what the under reporting factor is for. they found it was around 41x

Expand full comment

45,000 casualties out of 6 billion injections is not bad. That's a 0.00075% risk. We should never be so frightened by tiny risks that we stop trying to do better. Opposing tyranny is always appropriate, but martyrdom for inconsequential insults is always foolish.

Unfortunately we have indoctrinated several generations in the US to expect safe spaces, a zero risk existence. That has never been possible, never will be. Excellence comes from our attempts to improve, not from withdrawing in the panic of impossible expectations.

Governments that oppress us should be, and will be, replaced. Maybe the next government will be better. Probably not.

Expand full comment

I'm aware, but unpersuaded. The data are unreliable, at best. I was just extrapolating from Delcina's numbers. If you assume it's actually double, or triple, or any factor you choose to believe, the conclusion that it's vanishing small remains. It's not worth worry for most. Those few who are susceptible might see it differently. Such is life.

Expand full comment

The risk of death isn't the factor that most ppl are concerned about. Far worse is the chance of adverse reactions and having to live through that, potentially until the end of one's life - without any form of compensation. No one has liability for these shots.

Since the risk of covid infection is so minimal, it doesn't make sense to take something with a risk (of any kind) for it. What is the point? Why should anyone make themselves an unpaid guinea pig for Big Pharma?

Expand full comment

The government has full liability for vaccines. They also provide the judges, so some plaintiffs don't feel they get justice.

Risk always needs to be balanced against benefits. Vax benefits are currently very small for most people, but significant for a few vulnerable folks. Those who know they don't need it should probably skip the vax, unless that invokes penalties. A tiny risk doesn't warrant war.

Expand full comment

They certainly don't in Canada. Truedeaup has offered to 'pay for funerals'. That's it.

So once again, failed to convince. There are no benefits to the unapproved experimental mRNA genetic therapies.

I've lived life almost normally this year+ including being among the sick for a week, indoor and outdoor gatherings, transit, planes and trains, around the province and in more than one country. I've rarely muzzled. I'm only one person but I haven't been sick at all. And I'm really old.

I look at the numbers of 99.97% recovery rate and don't see the point in being a lab rat.

Expand full comment

Yes, I agree. If you've witnessed the unabated suffering of those with autoimmune disease and realize that medication only placates some of their symptoms, and not necessarily the worse symptoms, this is a dangerous path of no return.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Still small risk. Futile to worry about how small.

Expand full comment

Every booster shot has the same risk, and the probabilities are OR'd together, so you add them.

Vaccine + 1 booster = 2 x 0.02%

4 years of boosters at 6 monthly intervals = 0.2%

Expand full comment

We don't know that get. It may or may not be cumulative. Our systems adapt to toxins so tolerance might increase, or might decrease. And different people have different reactions. As with all uncertain risks, better to avoid them if you can, until it can be better defined. Those who can't avoid them can take comfort that it appears to be low risk for most people. My approach is don't volunteer, wait until they force me. It's a test of wills, not a suicide pact.

Expand full comment

Yet, not get...

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Both numbers are likely well within margin of error. Primary considerations should be (1) are you average? And (2) would you suffer penalties for either decision?

The stats average the majority of healthy people with very low risk and an unhealthy minority (comorbid) with much higher risk. So the healthy subset has lower risk than the averages indicate. One size does not fit all. And if your risk is very low but you're likely to be punished for holding back, it might not be the same decision. I'm self employed so not much they can do to me under current rules. That could change.

Expand full comment

That's the short term primary consideration. There's also the longer term consideration, which to me is the most significant consideration. The long term risks are very much unknown with the novel, new technology vaccine. Initially the short term risk of vaccine injury was based primarily on a two jab regimen. But we already see that was wrong and we're already on the 3rd and undoubtedly headed toward a 4th and so on. Once you've climbed on that merry-go-round, your vaccine injury risk increases exponentially along with the unknown long term risk of each individual jab, not to mention the potential long term compounding affects of them.

If you're in the low risk category to begin with, I don't see how getting on that merry-go-round can possibly be less risky than not.

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

"Don't you think it would have been so much worse if we hadn't locked down!?" - that's my favorite line from the people still taking orders from their television. Very tough to pull people out of the morass when they participated in The Hysteria on such a personal level, but I do sense it's breaking.

Expand full comment

They say it's easier to fool people than to convince them they've been fooled.

Expand full comment

“Take any lockdown enthusiast, give him an unlabelled graph of the mortality curves of different countries, and ask him to determine, on the basis of these curves, who locked down and when. We all know he would fail.”

Tom Woods had the same idea: covidchartsquiz.com

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

I've seen many claims about vaxx efficacy and effectiveness that are contradicted by real world evidence. 78% of those in hospital in Victoria yesterday (two days ago?) were fully vaxxed. A further 17 (people or percent?) were partially vaxxed. The strongly undermines a claim of protection for the vaxxed, especially since Australia started their mass vaxx campaign later than most western countries.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/coronavirus/victoria-375-people-currently-in-hospital-with-covid19/video/562ac33889c5d16e6158c38b94d8ed5f?fbclid=IwAR3nGgSdBCQaoVmF60GIGAWwxA0MWkLJybnuIgEJ-DfgICkmrK2XsyV20xs

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

It has all been stupid arguments from the beginning. The media still has too many people captured, but it was the brutal police overreactions (often later deemed illegal) that really did the job. If it wasn't for the beatings I don't think so many people would have lost their bearings. Once people could see the price for non-conformity, well it takes a special kind of already outcasts to resist that pressure to conform. I also think it's the thing that will bring them down, but only god knows what the outcome will be.

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

Someone should tell Alberta. Rumour is they are locking down tomorrow for a month.

Expand full comment
Oct 1, 2021Liked by eugyppius

Singapore vaccinated, kept restrictions then increased restrictions, deaths and cases are now as high or higher than last year

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

Thalidomide. Thalidomide. Thalidomide... Now that I have your attention.

Keeping the cattle metaphor in mind: I'm proposing that a significant number in the West want lockdowns, experimental drugs, child sacrifice. My proof is the re-election of any gov't that has done so in the past 18 months. And any reading of history available in a public library.

I'm working class so not good with abstract categories. I have observed a tendency in a category of the educated/disembodied to see theories and abstractions wrapped in skin rather than animals cluelessly flailing about (what is staring them in the face). It's similar to vegans in their 30s coming to terms with having to eat animals to deal with their disintegrating health. I'm not sure if it's atheism, immaturity or decadence.

https://phys.org/news/2018-02-humans-domesticate.html

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00134/full

P.S. Nothing wrong with short.

Expand full comment

The greater risk than the virus is the degradation and loss of confidence of the data we need to understand what's happening, and the science it should support. The increasing reliance on manipulated data and politicized conclusions will doom us to a new dark age.

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

I guess it would depend somewhat on which kind of lockdown we are talking about. I detest the draconian measures being carried out in Australia — but if I’m seeing the numbers correctly the US has experienced 40 times the fatalities per million of population as Australia. Of course, the insanity of their measures is unsustainable, merely delaying the inevitable while inflicting vastly more damage overall on the population.

Expand full comment
author

In a way Australia (until recently), New Zealand, China - these are all red herrings. If you keep the virus out entirely, do you have fewer deaths? Sure. But once the virus is widely seeded throughout the population, does trying in vain to stamp the virus out still save lives? The answer is, fairly clearly, no.

SARS-2 came to Europe during the fall/winter 2019 and spread widely before anybody noticed, finally breaking through to cause noticeable mortality at the height of normal influenza season. Places like Australia and New Zealand were advantaged, in that the pandemic emerged during their summer, when Coronaviruses were out of season. Policies like border closures, etc., were available to them.

In the long term, though, I don't think they will have saved any lives either. Because the pandemic is everywhere, and you can't close forever, and the vaccines don't seem really to reduce overall mortality, they will sooner or later have to reopen.

Expand full comment
Sep 30, 2021Liked by eugyppius

Can you please review and comment on this https://odysee.com/@en:a5/PK_Tot-durch-Impfung_english:a?r=FZwQRM1NQG4Zphmg1QnwW4uCaALdy4gB

Expand full comment
author

this is a good idea. I will have a look at it, others have also sent it to me. thanks :)

Expand full comment

Cause of death after COVID-19 vaccination & Undeclared components of the COVID-19 vaccines from autopsies in Germany

Expand full comment

correct .. core-rekt political spin

Expand full comment

Here in WV around my area we never locked down. We went about our life quite normal. I never wore a mask here, only on flights when we traveled out of our state. Now I've quit flying due to that. I will not go along with anymore . Everyone's numbers are up. We never fully locked down, but now after all the vax this year the numbers are higher. We are till living normal here. Everyone that is vax is getting covid and other cold and flus in the SUMMER. Not normal.

Expand full comment

@eugyppius

I don't know if you will see this but I have a question that has to do with vaccine efficacy and Mareks, and wondered if you have any thoughts on it.

Early in the pandemic with the original strain, there appeared to be evidence of substantial cross-immunity. The example of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where I imagine people were pretty likely to infect each other, saw an infection rate around 20%. Later, a paper in Nature appeared to corroborate that attack rate based on incidence of T cell recognition throughout the population: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x.pdf

To me, looking at how the spread occurred in the USA, outbreaks would occur, but they did not go as far and wide as I would have expected were there NOT substantial cross-immunity. I don't think that non pharma interventions explain this phenomenon, since masks have pretty much no effect (because it spreads by aerosol and fecal/oral) and the evidence shows only very weak effect of masking; probably the only thing that made much difference was work from home, and even then, hard to say. Community antibody testing, especially in communities where typical jobs were "essential" and not work-from-home, and high rates of public transport usage, consistently seemed to report convalescent rates around 20-30% (which was quite a bit higher than reported incidence of infections BTW). (e.g. 30% in Chelsea MA https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32906151/ )

Fast forward to the risky and foolish mass-deployment of vaccines, which selected for delta and eliminated the original wild strains (as you documented in another post).

I came across the following report from a prison in July of 2021:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7038e3-H.pdf

100% CDC certified data :)

The paper describes an outbreak in 2 living units of a federal prison, comprising 233 people. That's the count of "exposed" people - it's unclear whether that is everyone in these living units. I believe the prison in question is FCI Texarkana, a minimum security facility that I think has something like barracks, it's not super locked down. (The paper does not say what the facility was, but I am making this guess based on looking at where people in the acknowledgements worked)

The paper says 12% were convalescent and describes the vaccination status of the population (does not say how many convalescents were also vaccinated, nor does it say how many convalescents were re-infected). It also helpfully breaks down the age of vaccinations.

What got my attention was the attack rates among those exposed (unclear how exposure determined):

overall - 74%

unvaccinated - 93%

partially - 67%

2-4 months vax - 44%

>4 months vax - 89%

Now, if we assume that the 12% convalescent were not infected, this suggests an attack rate of nearly 100% of those who are not convalescent, excepting those vaccinated less than 4 months ago.

Here is my concern:

If prior conclusions about the attack rate of the wild type are accurate (70-80% are pretty safe), then this is showing a very different attack rate which would pose a much larger problem than the original virus, and obviously one which vaccination does not help much, or for very long.

Counters to this concern could be

* that there were differences between the surveillance done for the diamond princess vs. this prison?

* t-cell recognition does not prevent infection, but enables a rapid and low risk perfection of immunity

* delta is more able to get past the t cell recognition enough to cause a detectable case, but is no more hazardous because the immune system dispatches it quickly

anyway... hope you see this and it's worth your time to read :) . or at least it is interesting..

Expand full comment

The concern that "if the conclusion ... is accurate" depends on whether the data those conclusions are based on are accurate. Lots of problems with the data, so we'll probably never know what the best decisions would have been. Careers will be made on "what if" conjectures. Science and the fundamental processes of science have been so badly damaged by the panicked collection and the politicization of interpretations that science won't recover for a while without substantial overhaul. A more competent population would not have allowed it. It's our own fault.

Expand full comment

I'm not sure I understand your response. On the one hand we have a previously observed attack rate with the original strains that seemed to be around 20% by multiple independent measures - that was the prior conclusion I was talking about: Household transmission, Diamond Princess, the nature article, and the estimate that today about 20% in the US have convalescent antibodies, are all roughly congruent. (That's my read of it anyway?)

So why is it that what they found in this prison showed such a high attack rate? It looks like they used rapid antigen tests, which are supposed to have lower false positive rates than PCR. Checking for convalescent antibodies post facto might help clarify things. Maybe it's bad data in the prison paper, or missing/inaccurate data on confounders like prior infections, and the paper should be ignored. Or maybe it's something about delta that is different, and this tells us something. That was my question.

Expand full comment

My response was fairly simple -- the numbers we are being force fed are frequently shown to be inaccurate. There are many questions, and it's useful to follow them. But some things are just unknowable. Covid decisions that rely on accurate data are one of them. Precision should never be confused with accuracy. Wrong and incomplete data presented with precision and confidence is still wrong. We always make decisions based on the best data we can muster, but we should always account for the uncertainties of known defective data. Decisions that affect lives or livelihoods must wait for good inputs.

Expand full comment

OK, I see what you mean. I guess I was giving the 20% overall susceptibility rate number some credence because it appeared to be confirmed by several independent analyses.

The new CDC paper seems at odds with it. It could just be wrong, although I didn't see how they managed it.

Expand full comment

I look forward to more thorough and, hopefully honest, analyses emerging in coming years. We need to find out why the decisions were wrong rather than what they should have been. The decisions are done deal, water over the dam. The processes will live on. 700,000 (or whatever, and still counting) people did not need to die. Some of those responsible will be prosecuted. A lot more should be, but won't.

Expand full comment