POLLS CLOSED: First Election Prognoses Too Close to Call on Most Important Questions
Also open thread.
The polls closed just 25 minutes ago, and we have the customary prognoses from ZDF and ARD, based on exit polls. Historically, these have proven accurate to within a point or so.
… and here is the ARD prognosis:
There are very few surprises here. Yes, Alternative für Deutschland look a little weak, but they are still within striking distance of the 21% I thought they’d get. On the other hand, Die Linke are looking somewhat stronger than I expected – approaching 9%, rather than the 8% maximum I thought was possible for them.
Unfortunately, the two smallest parties – FDP and BSW – are far too close in these prognoses to call. Coalition possibilities will depend largely on whether one or both of them clear the 5% hurdle for representation in the Bundestag and pull seats from the major players. We won’t be able to speculate about coalitions for some hours yet. I’ll keep an eye on the evolving numbers and update this post with any significant news.
UPDATE I: The counting has begun. Here is the first adjusted extrapolation from ZDF:
… and from ARD:
What we see more than anything in these results, is what the polls already suggested – a general disenchantment with what state media and the establishment like to call "the democratic middle" (a euphemism for the four cartel parties: CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP and Greens), and a flight to other options – Die Linke on the one hand, AfD on the other hand.
They've come a long way.
Anythings possible. I mean, twenty years ago, who would've thought an Orange Hitler doing the YMCA dance could save America?