What we see more than anything in these results, is what the polls already suggested – a general disenchantment with what state media and the establishment like to call "the democratic middle" (a euphemism for the four cartel parties: CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP and Greens), and a flight to other options – Die Linke on the one hand, AfD on the other hand.
If we take the ZDF prognosis as final, then a "Deutschland coalition" of SPD + CDU + FDP would have a slim 13-seat majority, imho at the boundaries of workability.
I know you'll comment more on this in the coming days and weeks, but isn't this outcome a disappointment? The key issue driving Europe into the 7th century is Ukraine, and this outcome seems to indicate Germany is not ready to face the hard truths necessary to move forward (I was frankly hoping the Germans would point the way for Europe via this election, but it appears as though Germany is as stuck in the mud as France.)
In the absence of a definitive mandate, predictable coalitions forming as eugyppius and others have laid out all that remains is spin. How are the results spun in media and alt-media? What narrative spin serves freedom and liberty? What narrative spin serves globalist tyranny?
I'm most interested in amplifying freedom and liberty narratives. I was tempted to follow up saying to suppress, bury global tyranny narratives. But they often are so pathetic and uncredible on their face the advice to not get in the way of an enemy destroying themselves applies.
Definitely there's hope. She's still somewhat tentative about full on support for AfD, but is being pushed in that direction, as will undoubtedly be the case in the next election. People are just so gradual to "come around" to common sense. It does appear that another election cycle will be needed to change anything big.
As an American, it is a dizzying array of possibilities which are hard to grasp! I can scarcely make sense of it. However I am pulling for a great outcome for Germany!!
I think the fact that the Dems felt comfortable propping up Biden/Harris as government media puppets shows very clearly that the party believes their Bureaucracy "so called" Democracy is how they want to run things now. In their view, the Chief Executive has become meaningless and relatively powerless except as a PR front, and the bureaucracy deep state plans, runs and implements everything. What better way to ease into it all than with a dementia addled president and a low IQ moron as VP! They thought they could fool us and get away with it, and with the help of the government run media they more or less did skate on it for the last 4 years. They just didn't count on so many people waking up to the whole fraud of it.
Harris got 75 million in 2024 which is a million more than Trump in 2020.
Biden got 81 million in 2020 vs Trumps 77 Million in 2024.
This clearly means the Democrats lost it not Trump won it. Options include:
Six million democrats did not show up at the polls and the media forgot to mention that.
The 2020 Election was won with fraud and the machine was not able to be deployed because Biden and Dem infighting by the Media, Intel Agencies, Party power elite and such were not unified to deliver 81 million in 2024
MAGA teams won because of Voter ID since all states with Voter ID laws were won by Trump?
I think Ryan means that T has been called Hitler. And in the past, if called such a thing by the MSM, that person would never have been elected in the US.
How much T will save America remains to be seen.
But on balance so far he easily beats Biden (ok, a very low bar).
Let us hope that the people are mostly wise, and that the elites allow democracy with representative government.
I think eugyppius is right that Germany has an oligarchy (of a sort). That is, the Oligarchy disables real democracy (via representatives government).
And we will see how much T reforms the Oligarchy in the US.
I have never liked Trump, and yet...it's almost like we're seeing the revolution we all wanted in the 60s and 70s, but it has come to us from the opposite direction, where we never would have imagined it coming from! A nominal Republican, with top advisers who have been life-long dedicated Dems, and they are demanding an end to censorship, government accountability, they are anti-war...it's mind-boggling. My hope is to watch this same thing happen in Germany! Freedom from oppression may come from an unexpected direction.
Sorry, man, I missed it, probably because I've been dealing with someone on another Website who calls Trump a Nazi and Hitler every third or fourth line of his irrational posts. Sorry about that.
While pithy, not entirely your best. The quote: They are not coming for me, they are coming for you- I am just in the way. Evidence - Assassination attempts - one real, the other a Fed. Op. in essence cleaning up the kitchen counter after gutting a fish.
The point, Political war and Military war are twins, in the use of deception to gain ground.
This began years and years ago. Remember: shields polished to reflect the sun.
In the modern age, in America, the shifting began in ernest in 1840-
Be well, for Germany is like an intersection, that needs to be held, on a Global scale.
Be well, for the opposition has removed the couch from you premises. Piece by piece.
Thank you for being astute, and providing support. Point taken, while maybe "tongue in cheek" Ryan toughen up to accept misses without judgement. In the Military we called it "Friendly fire." Your post assisted greatly. I wish no animas, and will keep the safety on, now that I am aware.
LT Mustang, 1965 - 1993 and on. I sort of apologized. Be blessed and keep us in line.
Mr. Gardner, in a nod to Dr. Linda's educational post, ( Thank you ) as one who for 80 years has been on this planet in Oregon, and an analyst Fed. For 50 years, Military ,and civilian now retired ( in Weather first ) missed and still only addressing the Orange Hitler insult. The United States has been mis-educated for 185 years. Both internally and externally. My ancestors came here 100 years before 1783, and died in every conflict since. I was in 4 conflicts between 1966 and lately, and so respect in this chance to gain back some of the ground, gives me hope for my 9 grandchildren.
No apology, but as one who has enjoyment of satire and wonderment,
also has much, of truth and sadness I will refrain from retort. In a nod,, I will maintain civility reading your posts.
On the other hand, one could say suck it up, as pithy is and satire does. One of ours is "friendly fire isn't" for obvious reasons. Be blessed, and be well.
I just don’t see how anything other than a dramatic AfD win changes anything for the better. It will still be the same old players playing the same old games and getting nowhere. It also looks like too many people have bought into the “AfD Bad” propaganda making them still to reluctant to actually pull that trigger, yet instead voting for the other less conventional parties as a seemingly safer option, while still trying to stick it to the traffic light dudes.
That could explain those parties unusually higher numbers.
I think Germany is in a very hard spot, in many ways.
If Germany is to recovery and lead (or co-lead) the EU, it needs a dramatic change. Soon.
Changes to: immigration, entitlements, climate change insanity, economics, energy, trade, de-industrialization (reverse), de-regulation (start)…so that Germany can remain strong and growing economically, and thus have a basis to lead.
And let us not omit freedom. Especially free speech and seeing and clearly speaking about the reality they are in.
So, in other words, they need an entirely new government mindset to lead in an entirely opposite direction on basically everything that the current one has been doing for decades.
Don’t see any of that happening anytime soon, and certainly not soon enough.
Right leaners have been calling for ages for tactical votes for the FDP to ensure they clear the hurdle and enable a "Deutschland" rather than "Agfhanistan" coalition.
It looks like, especially if both that and BSW make it in, that will actually massively complicate matters. With a Union-SPD majority there was at least the hope of some things changing.
The AfD result looks initially disappointing. Let's remember it is almost double the last result, and on the background of extremely high participation, actually encouraging. As with the breach of the cordon sanitaire, or losing your virginity, it is the first vote for AfD that is the hardest.
Linke is the biggest surprise, and disappointment. I guess there is a hard core of people who just want to live off the efforts of others. But also, BSW is clearly far from dead. Longer term, this is the shattering of the left into 3 parties.
I would like to agree but I think it will take a lot more hurt than that.
Acknowledged migro kills and rapes are now weekly events. The number of hushed up events even higher.
It might actually take an "economy stupid" to change German voting patterns.
We now seem to be heading for the Afghanischam coalition, with FDP out of the picture and BSW in. It will take 6 months to negotiate and will last about a year. Usually European countries thrive without governments but we have an awful lot of baked-in tripwires that we are stuck with given long coalition-forming period.
A Chaoslition, or Union-SPD coaltion are now the only routes to change. Unfortunately, even in the most optimistic scenario (FDP and BSW out) AfD will not get 25% of the seats required to make life for the government difficult.
On very early balance, I think the Chaoslition of Afghanistan and try again in a couple of years time is probably the long-term best outcome. I also think that should FDP make it back in they will want to stay out of government.
Germany has just committed suicide. Without remigration it’s game over. I care about Germany, because I knew when I was a 12yr old boy that my Dad was literally Hitler.
As I predicted yesterday, the German establishment was Astroturfing Die Linke so as to syphon (and/or steal) a critical percentage point away from AfD.
I've just had a quick look at the forecasts after the polls closed as well (couldn't keep away ...). Yes, it's much as expected, with the late surge for 'die Linke' a bit moe worrisome than I hoped.
Ah well, everybody and their Auntie will now rush from TV studio to the next, giving their 'expert' opinion on what happened - and what should happen next.
This preliminary result isn't exactly hope0inspiring. Will we see a coalition of SPD-Green-Linke-BSW in the end, with Havelock as Chancellor? It would seem very many Germans wanted precisely that ...
Women are evolutionarily adapted to, um, accommodate invading alpha males over their erstwhile beta mates. Not looking good for Deutschland as a bastion of European heritage.
Die Linke will be the link (tsk) to everything. This is where the pre-election pressure came from and it appears to have been the establishment's chosen vehicle for election meddling. The "social media blitz" that Eugyppius briefly referred to in his previous post was designed to throw coalition possibilities back towards favoring the establishment, perhaps by syphoning enough votes to keep the BSW below the critical 5% threshold, perhaps also by helping to explain where the "missing" AfD support went. In retrospect, it was quite clever in a cynical sort of way.
Linke seems to have mostly siphoned votes from disappointed SPD voters. And still none of the Uniparty branches are strong enough to solve this!
We have to accept a ~25% Green-Marxist core of naked thieves in "our democracy" who now have their own parties to continue pressing for more redistribution towards themselves. More sensible countries have to accommodate these people within the main, pragmatic left-wing party, and keep their extremes under control that way.
Do you know how they keep track of voters though? The voting roll…. Is it still paper method or moved to cloud/computer?
The USA had problems with this in a few states. It was called ERIC system. As per the Gateway Pundit …names were moved to different precincts and moved back again in 2020. Since then some states stopped using that system.
I'm a sample size of 1 but it's a good chance it's the same everywhere in Germany, because Germany....
I get a paper "Wahlschein" in the mail a few weeks before the vote. I have to bring it with me to vote. A guy checks it coming in and hands me my paper ballot.
I go behind a little screen with a table and there's a pen there. Cast vote, fold twice.
Give Wahlschein to another election worker, who finds my name on a paper list, checks it off and puts my Wahlschein in a pile with the others.
And then a third person lifts the flap of a big plastic box and I put my own ballot through a tiny slot.
At least your elections are still secure. Paper ballots that can only be cast on Election Day, publicly counted, immediately after polls close is the only way to go.
QUOTE: [the election system uses] paper ballots, publicly counted at each voting location after the polls close
QUESTION: what are likely/potential weak spots of the entire system, now and going forward? If a well-financed and well-organized force wished to manipulate individual races or broader outcomes, which areas would they leverage?
Tallying and recording of results at local and higher levels?
Voter rolls?
Fake voters (e.g. foreigners) admitted by suborned election officials?
TLDR: There is practically no way for any significant manipulation.
First, it's important to understand for the American and British readers that Germany doesn't have a winner-takes-it-all system. In the US, it would make strategic sense to manipulate specific races in swing states. In Germany, it doesn't really matter whether one party gets one vote more or less than another at the local level. This is slightly oversimplified but essentially the case. This means you can't leverage small manipulations in strategic polling stations and any notable, significant interference with the election results would require a large-scale effort that would never go undetected.
Second, I can share some first-hand experience from having volunteered at two past elections. No one was ever alone with the ballot box and when the votes were counted we were a group of around six who didn't know each other. Public observers are allowed too but no one showed up where I volunteered. Most other volunteers were pedantic, middle-aged people typically working in the public sector. I'm sure if I would have suggested manipulating the results in any way, they would have reported me. Everything was double- and triple checked. We reported the results to some authority who then publicly reports the results down to each individual polling station. So I'd say there is practically no way of manipulating the election.
I can't be entirely sure about fake voters, at the polling station we rely on the voter register being correct. I assume there are similar checks and balances on the level of the voter register, but even if it was possible for an individual person to add fake voters, this would have a negligible effect on the results of the overall election. Unless we talk hundreds of thousands of fake voters, which would of course not go unnoticed.
The most credible allegations of election manipulations are for postal votes before they reach their destination. Counting them works as for in-person votes, so there should be little to no way to manipulate the elections. But at care homes, there may be some black sheep who assist elderly patients a bit too much with their votes. Or a mailman could throw away the letters of a family he know to vote for a party he doesn't like. There is probably no way to prevent these small-scale manipulations like someone making the cross for their demented grandmother. But I can't see a realistic way how that would work on a large scale. If some external power wants to change our election results, it's much, much easier and more effective to do so via influencing people's decision e.g. via targeted social media campaigns. Which, of course, is perfectly legal to do, as it should be.
QUOTE: In Germany, it doesn't really matter whether one party gets one vote more or less than another at the local level. <<
There could be situations where a small number of votes makes a big difference system-wide. Most obviously, if a marginal party is at 4.9%, all those votes are effectively wasted, and the seats are distributed among the established parties.
Conversely, with only 0.2% more votes, the same party would clear the 5% hurdle, and the balance of power AMONG ESTABLISHMENT PARTIES could change significantly as a result. This in turn could circumscribe the feasibility or otherwise of various coalition options - even permutations that do NOT directly involve the marginal party itself. Eugyppius touched on this point in an earlier election piece.
QUOTE: Most other volunteers were pedantic, middle-aged people typically working in the PUBLIC SECTOR.<<
So votes are counted by beneficiaries of public patronage. Very reassuring.
QUOTE: We reported the results to SOME AUTHORITY <<
Only a handful of polling stations coordinating with the "authority" could easily effect a marginal change in vote counts, enough to allow or deny a marginal party representation.
As far as I know there are even more checks and balances, I can just report on the first layer so to say, what I've seen with my own eyes. I'm not sure whether "polling station" is the best translation but I'm talking about a specific place where people go to vote (often a school). There are over 2000 polling stations in Berlin alone, so each one is for a few hundred to maybe a thousand voters. On election day, they are run by a group of volunteers like the one I was a part of. Everyone can do it, they are always looking for volunteers. The reason many are public servants is that they usually get a day off from work as a compensation.
Of course we didn't just report the numbers but also sent the ballots somewhere. So if anything suspicious is going on, they would be recounted. Of course any extremely unusual results would raise attention and would be checked more rigorously, so all this conspiracy could do is give a party maybe 5% more or so. But again, the results we personally counted are public and for everyone to see. What you're suggesting requires a group of around 5 to 6 people per polling station (i.e. typically for a few hundred voters) plus an unknown number of people at the higher level to collaborate on something extremely illegal. And not just any groups of people but more often than not the type of German bureaucrat or teacher that doesn't even walk over a red light. This is not to mean any offense but your suggestion seems a bit paranoid.
I heard there was an issue with mail-in ballots from abroad not sent out in time? TBF, this was from RT though, so clearly "russian propaganda." They just broadcast their own pretty funny, hard-trolling election results coverage.
What we see more than anything in these results, is what the polls already suggested – a general disenchantment with what state media and the establishment like to call "the democratic middle" (a euphemism for the four cartel parties: CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP and Greens), and a flight to other options – Die Linke on the one hand, AfD on the other hand.
If we take the ZDF prognosis as final, then a "Deutschland coalition" of SPD + CDU + FDP would have a slim 13-seat majority, imho at the boundaries of workability.
I hope the Greens can be excluded. That is a small victory. From my outside perspective, it is the worst of all German parties.
🤢🟰🍉💣
I know you'll comment more on this in the coming days and weeks, but isn't this outcome a disappointment? The key issue driving Europe into the 7th century is Ukraine, and this outcome seems to indicate Germany is not ready to face the hard truths necessary to move forward (I was frankly hoping the Germans would point the way for Europe via this election, but it appears as though Germany is as stuck in the mud as France.)
In the absence of a definitive mandate, predictable coalitions forming as eugyppius and others have laid out all that remains is spin. How are the results spun in media and alt-media? What narrative spin serves freedom and liberty? What narrative spin serves globalist tyranny?
I'm most interested in amplifying freedom and liberty narratives. I was tempted to follow up saying to suppress, bury global tyranny narratives. But they often are so pathetic and uncredible on their face the advice to not get in the way of an enemy destroying themselves applies.
Meme 💣 the narcosis narrative
Let's note that Die Linke + BSW counted together likely showed better % than Die Linke ever did in federal elections (11.9% in 2009, to my knowledge).
yes, BSW appeals also to some right-leaning protest voters (Covid scepticism, migration scepticism, Ukraine war scepticism)
Isn’t the total number of clinical leftists increasing as well?
*sigh*
Sadly, not the 26% for AfD I had my fingers crossed for. Not *shocking*, but still disappointing. Alas.
https://x.com/CultureWar2020/status/1889521649596166500?s=19
This girl nailed it. There's hope.
Definitely there's hope. She's still somewhat tentative about full on support for AfD, but is being pushed in that direction, as will undoubtedly be the case in the next election. People are just so gradual to "come around" to common sense. It does appear that another election cycle will be needed to change anything big.
As an American, it is a dizzying array of possibilities which are hard to grasp! I can scarcely make sense of it. However I am pulling for a great outcome for Germany!!
Via the ZDF link in your article as of 6:44 AM 24 February 2025
28.52% CDU/CSU
20.80% AfD
16.41% SPD
11.61% Greens
8.77% Linke
FDP and BSW failed to reach the 5% threshold.
They've come a long way.
Anythings possible. I mean, twenty years ago, who would've thought an Orange Hitler doing the YMCA dance could save America?
20 years ago who would have thought that half of the US desperately wants an actual dementia patient and a cackling retard as their leaders.
I think the fact that the Dems felt comfortable propping up Biden/Harris as government media puppets shows very clearly that the party believes their Bureaucracy "so called" Democracy is how they want to run things now. In their view, the Chief Executive has become meaningless and relatively powerless except as a PR front, and the bureaucracy deep state plans, runs and implements everything. What better way to ease into it all than with a dementia addled president and a low IQ moron as VP! They thought they could fool us and get away with it, and with the help of the government run media they more or less did skate on it for the last 4 years. They just didn't count on so many people waking up to the whole fraud of it.
Harris got 75 million in 2024 which is a million more than Trump in 2020.
Biden got 81 million in 2020 vs Trumps 77 Million in 2024.
This clearly means the Democrats lost it not Trump won it. Options include:
Six million democrats did not show up at the polls and the media forgot to mention that.
The 2020 Election was won with fraud and the machine was not able to be deployed because Biden and Dem infighting by the Media, Intel Agencies, Party power elite and such were not unified to deliver 81 million in 2024
MAGA teams won because of Voter ID since all states with Voter ID laws were won by Trump?
You pick
Exactly. Better point
Three years and eleven months, then JD Vance takes over.
We could have twelve years of common sense.
Maybe DeSantis or Ramsaway in 36'?
I think Pam Bondi could compete.
Hell yes. She's a warrior!
Who’d have thought a cadaver and a crash test dummy could have ruined it.
Orange Hitler....o.k., whatever you say.
I think Ryan means that T has been called Hitler. And in the past, if called such a thing by the MSM, that person would never have been elected in the US.
How much T will save America remains to be seen.
But on balance so far he easily beats Biden (ok, a very low bar).
Let us hope that the people are mostly wise, and that the elites allow democracy with representative government.
I think eugyppius is right that Germany has an oligarchy (of a sort). That is, the Oligarchy disables real democracy (via representatives government).
And we will see how much T reforms the Oligarchy in the US.
Trump indeed saved America even if he did nothing.
Another 4 of 8 years of Bidencide would've been our end.
Change my mind...;)
I have never liked Trump, and yet...it's almost like we're seeing the revolution we all wanted in the 60s and 70s, but it has come to us from the opposite direction, where we never would have imagined it coming from! A nominal Republican, with top advisers who have been life-long dedicated Dems, and they are demanding an end to censorship, government accountability, they are anti-war...it's mind-boggling. My hope is to watch this same thing happen in Germany! Freedom from oppression may come from an unexpected direction.
Yes, Trump is definitely the peace president. So ironic that it's Democrats who are the warmongers.
Same. Same. Same for me.
Every single Republican candidate for President since WWII has been called Hitler by the Dems, with the media carrying that water.
Every. Single. One.
I remember so well when Reagan was Hitler.
that is what my little brother calls President Trump so.... that must be true 😅
Dude it's sarcasm.
Sorry, man, I missed it, probably because I've been dealing with someone on another Website who calls Trump a Nazi and Hitler every third or fourth line of his irrational posts. Sorry about that.
Oh no worries, man. I know exactly what you mean
While pithy, not entirely your best. The quote: They are not coming for me, they are coming for you- I am just in the way. Evidence - Assassination attempts - one real, the other a Fed. Op. in essence cleaning up the kitchen counter after gutting a fish.
The point, Political war and Military war are twins, in the use of deception to gain ground.
This began years and years ago. Remember: shields polished to reflect the sun.
In the modern age, in America, the shifting began in ernest in 1840-
Be well, for Germany is like an intersection, that needs to be held, on a Global scale.
Be well, for the opposition has removed the couch from you premises. Piece by piece.
What's your point? I was neither trying to be pithy nor make any historical reference.
I was just being silly
They are perhaps not familiar with your style. I was aware style and humor.
Thank you for being astute, and providing support. Point taken, while maybe "tongue in cheek" Ryan toughen up to accept misses without judgement. In the Military we called it "Friendly fire." Your post assisted greatly. I wish no animas, and will keep the safety on, now that I am aware.
LT Mustang, 1965 - 1993 and on. I sort of apologized. Be blessed and keep us in line.
Hahaha. We'd be having a beer if we were in closer proximity
Mr. Gardner, in a nod to Dr. Linda's educational post, ( Thank you ) as one who for 80 years has been on this planet in Oregon, and an analyst Fed. For 50 years, Military ,and civilian now retired ( in Weather first ) missed and still only addressing the Orange Hitler insult. The United States has been mis-educated for 185 years. Both internally and externally. My ancestors came here 100 years before 1783, and died in every conflict since. I was in 4 conflicts between 1966 and lately, and so respect in this chance to gain back some of the ground, gives me hope for my 9 grandchildren.
No apology, but as one who has enjoyment of satire and wonderment,
also has much, of truth and sadness I will refrain from retort. In a nod,, I will maintain civility reading your posts.
On the other hand, one could say suck it up, as pithy is and satire does. One of ours is "friendly fire isn't" for obvious reasons. Be blessed, and be well.
Likewise.
I enjoy the nicknames commenters give to the former VP. Keep up the good work!
I just don’t see how anything other than a dramatic AfD win changes anything for the better. It will still be the same old players playing the same old games and getting nowhere. It also looks like too many people have bought into the “AfD Bad” propaganda making them still to reluctant to actually pull that trigger, yet instead voting for the other less conventional parties as a seemingly safer option, while still trying to stick it to the traffic light dudes.
That could explain those parties unusually higher numbers.
I think Germany is in a very hard spot, in many ways.
If Germany is to recovery and lead (or co-lead) the EU, it needs a dramatic change. Soon.
Changes to: immigration, entitlements, climate change insanity, economics, energy, trade, de-industrialization (reverse), de-regulation (start)…so that Germany can remain strong and growing economically, and thus have a basis to lead.
And let us not omit freedom. Especially free speech and seeing and clearly speaking about the reality they are in.
So, in other words, they need an entirely new government mindset to lead in an entirely opposite direction on basically everything that the current one has been doing for decades.
Don’t see any of that happening anytime soon, and certainly not soon enough.
I've been checking your X feed like every hour. Glad this has just landed in my inbox!
Unfortunately this sort of moment makes one ravenous for snack food. That's why I keep my hands busy with other things.
oh! uh.... so that is why I am snarfing snacks
I should be PACKING up my house
eugyppius has made it as exciting for us as November has just been in the US.
Pi Guy 👀🫣
Well! There's daylight hours occupations and those for after dark. When you get old enough you've mastered time management and patience.
Right leaners have been calling for ages for tactical votes for the FDP to ensure they clear the hurdle and enable a "Deutschland" rather than "Agfhanistan" coalition.
It looks like, especially if both that and BSW make it in, that will actually massively complicate matters. With a Union-SPD majority there was at least the hope of some things changing.
The AfD result looks initially disappointing. Let's remember it is almost double the last result, and on the background of extremely high participation, actually encouraging. As with the breach of the cordon sanitaire, or losing your virginity, it is the first vote for AfD that is the hardest.
Linke is the biggest surprise, and disappointment. I guess there is a hard core of people who just want to live off the efforts of others. But also, BSW is clearly far from dead. Longer term, this is the shattering of the left into 3 parties.
Excellent comment.
Just a few more rapes and mass murders might be a game changer tho.
Terrible to say....but probably true.
Thats how it happened in the US. It just couldn't be ignored anymore.
I would like to agree but I think it will take a lot more hurt than that.
Acknowledged migro kills and rapes are now weekly events. The number of hushed up events even higher.
It might actually take an "economy stupid" to change German voting patterns.
We now seem to be heading for the Afghanischam coalition, with FDP out of the picture and BSW in. It will take 6 months to negotiate and will last about a year. Usually European countries thrive without governments but we have an awful lot of baked-in tripwires that we are stuck with given long coalition-forming period.
A Chaoslition, or Union-SPD coaltion are now the only routes to change. Unfortunately, even in the most optimistic scenario (FDP and BSW out) AfD will not get 25% of the seats required to make life for the government difficult.
On very early balance, I think the Chaoslition of Afghanistan and try again in a couple of years time is probably the long-term best outcome. I also think that should FDP make it back in they will want to stay out of government.
🙏 for Germany and a turn for the better!
As it stands, with cordon sanitaire, you either have a Palestinian coalition (Red Black Green) or a Rainbow coalition. Oh dear.
😂
Germany has just committed suicide. Without remigration it’s game over. I care about Germany, because I knew when I was a 12yr old boy that my Dad was literally Hitler.
I always thought my English Teacher was Eva Braun
This is a most interesting read on that very topic:
https://directorblue.substack.com/p/forecasting-the-future-of-the-west?publication_id=581739&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=kyfzz&utm_medium=email
Is it not interesting that Linke is again much stronger then BSW? Any thoughts about reason for that.
As I predicted yesterday, the German establishment was Astroturfing Die Linke so as to syphon (and/or steal) a critical percentage point away from AfD.
I've just had a quick look at the forecasts after the polls closed as well (couldn't keep away ...). Yes, it's much as expected, with the late surge for 'die Linke' a bit moe worrisome than I hoped.
Ah well, everybody and their Auntie will now rush from TV studio to the next, giving their 'expert' opinion on what happened - and what should happen next.
This preliminary result isn't exactly hope0inspiring. Will we see a coalition of SPD-Green-Linke-BSW in the end, with Havelock as Chancellor? It would seem very many Germans wanted precisely that ...
Women need to suffer more.
Maybe then they'll stop voting left wing politicians into power
Until the 15% comfortably urban suffer nothing is noticed.
Democracy isn’t even Bourbon Versailles , it’s Bourgeois Mel Brooks … Dickens as parody…
https://youtu.be/h0iAcQVIokg?si=F7PdN1DXQ-l4dvSk
Apt, Sir. Most apt.
💯
Women are evolutionarily adapted to, um, accommodate invading alpha males over their erstwhile beta mates. Not looking good for Deutschland as a bastion of European heritage.
Women like Mutti did that.
And it’s no one time mistake.
What do we men learn?
Just a few more rapes and mass murders ought to do it!.....
In any sane rational country the CDU/CSU + AfD gets 48.5% and they would form a strong collation government and move forward.
Willkommen in Deutschland
A hard road ahead. The politics of concensus will continue.
Die Linke will be the link (tsk) to everything. This is where the pre-election pressure came from and it appears to have been the establishment's chosen vehicle for election meddling. The "social media blitz" that Eugyppius briefly referred to in his previous post was designed to throw coalition possibilities back towards favoring the establishment, perhaps by syphoning enough votes to keep the BSW below the critical 5% threshold, perhaps also by helping to explain where the "missing" AfD support went. In retrospect, it was quite clever in a cynical sort of way.
Linke seems to have mostly siphoned votes from disappointed SPD voters. And still none of the Uniparty branches are strong enough to solve this!
We have to accept a ~25% Green-Marxist core of naked thieves in "our democracy" who now have their own parties to continue pressing for more redistribution towards themselves. More sensible countries have to accommodate these people within the main, pragmatic left-wing party, and keep their extremes under control that way.
And well to do types at that.
The irony of the champagne socialist and watermelon green's.
Deeply ironic that the Ampel wasn't left-wing enough for SPD voters...
meet the new boss. same as the old boss
I guess this means there will be no course correction away from green energy and migration madness. Hunker down folks.
What is the voting method used there? Paper ballots? Electronic voting rolls? Electronic voting tabulators? Voting machines?
Anything electronic can be hacked. Including the electronic voting rolls. Hopefully these methods are not used there.
paper ballots, publicly counted at each voting location after the polls close
Excellent. Thanks. Good news.
Do you know how they keep track of voters though? The voting roll…. Is it still paper method or moved to cloud/computer?
The USA had problems with this in a few states. It was called ERIC system. As per the Gateway Pundit …names were moved to different precincts and moved back again in 2020. Since then some states stopped using that system.
Sadly Canada switched to electronic voting rolls.
I'm a sample size of 1 but it's a good chance it's the same everywhere in Germany, because Germany....
I get a paper "Wahlschein" in the mail a few weeks before the vote. I have to bring it with me to vote. A guy checks it coming in and hands me my paper ballot.
I go behind a little screen with a table and there's a pen there. Cast vote, fold twice.
Give Wahlschein to another election worker, who finds my name on a paper list, checks it off and puts my Wahlschein in a pile with the others.
And then a third person lifts the flap of a big plastic box and I put my own ballot through a tiny slot.
All in all, it's pretty secure.
At least your elections are still secure. Paper ballots that can only be cast on Election Day, publicly counted, immediately after polls close is the only way to go.
QUOTE: [the election system uses] paper ballots, publicly counted at each voting location after the polls close
QUESTION: what are likely/potential weak spots of the entire system, now and going forward? If a well-financed and well-organized force wished to manipulate individual races or broader outcomes, which areas would they leverage?
Tallying and recording of results at local and higher levels?
Voter rolls?
Fake voters (e.g. foreigners) admitted by suborned election officials?
TLDR: There is practically no way for any significant manipulation.
First, it's important to understand for the American and British readers that Germany doesn't have a winner-takes-it-all system. In the US, it would make strategic sense to manipulate specific races in swing states. In Germany, it doesn't really matter whether one party gets one vote more or less than another at the local level. This is slightly oversimplified but essentially the case. This means you can't leverage small manipulations in strategic polling stations and any notable, significant interference with the election results would require a large-scale effort that would never go undetected.
Second, I can share some first-hand experience from having volunteered at two past elections. No one was ever alone with the ballot box and when the votes were counted we were a group of around six who didn't know each other. Public observers are allowed too but no one showed up where I volunteered. Most other volunteers were pedantic, middle-aged people typically working in the public sector. I'm sure if I would have suggested manipulating the results in any way, they would have reported me. Everything was double- and triple checked. We reported the results to some authority who then publicly reports the results down to each individual polling station. So I'd say there is practically no way of manipulating the election.
I can't be entirely sure about fake voters, at the polling station we rely on the voter register being correct. I assume there are similar checks and balances on the level of the voter register, but even if it was possible for an individual person to add fake voters, this would have a negligible effect on the results of the overall election. Unless we talk hundreds of thousands of fake voters, which would of course not go unnoticed.
The most credible allegations of election manipulations are for postal votes before they reach their destination. Counting them works as for in-person votes, so there should be little to no way to manipulate the elections. But at care homes, there may be some black sheep who assist elderly patients a bit too much with their votes. Or a mailman could throw away the letters of a family he know to vote for a party he doesn't like. There is probably no way to prevent these small-scale manipulations like someone making the cross for their demented grandmother. But I can't see a realistic way how that would work on a large scale. If some external power wants to change our election results, it's much, much easier and more effective to do so via influencing people's decision e.g. via targeted social media campaigns. Which, of course, is perfectly legal to do, as it should be.
Thanks for the reply.
QUOTE: In Germany, it doesn't really matter whether one party gets one vote more or less than another at the local level. <<
There could be situations where a small number of votes makes a big difference system-wide. Most obviously, if a marginal party is at 4.9%, all those votes are effectively wasted, and the seats are distributed among the established parties.
Conversely, with only 0.2% more votes, the same party would clear the 5% hurdle, and the balance of power AMONG ESTABLISHMENT PARTIES could change significantly as a result. This in turn could circumscribe the feasibility or otherwise of various coalition options - even permutations that do NOT directly involve the marginal party itself. Eugyppius touched on this point in an earlier election piece.
QUOTE: Most other volunteers were pedantic, middle-aged people typically working in the PUBLIC SECTOR.<<
So votes are counted by beneficiaries of public patronage. Very reassuring.
QUOTE: We reported the results to SOME AUTHORITY <<
Only a handful of polling stations coordinating with the "authority" could easily effect a marginal change in vote counts, enough to allow or deny a marginal party representation.
As far as I know there are even more checks and balances, I can just report on the first layer so to say, what I've seen with my own eyes. I'm not sure whether "polling station" is the best translation but I'm talking about a specific place where people go to vote (often a school). There are over 2000 polling stations in Berlin alone, so each one is for a few hundred to maybe a thousand voters. On election day, they are run by a group of volunteers like the one I was a part of. Everyone can do it, they are always looking for volunteers. The reason many are public servants is that they usually get a day off from work as a compensation.
Of course we didn't just report the numbers but also sent the ballots somewhere. So if anything suspicious is going on, they would be recounted. Of course any extremely unusual results would raise attention and would be checked more rigorously, so all this conspiracy could do is give a party maybe 5% more or so. But again, the results we personally counted are public and for everyone to see. What you're suggesting requires a group of around 5 to 6 people per polling station (i.e. typically for a few hundred voters) plus an unknown number of people at the higher level to collaborate on something extremely illegal. And not just any groups of people but more often than not the type of German bureaucrat or teacher that doesn't even walk over a red light. This is not to mean any offense but your suggestion seems a bit paranoid.
I heard there was an issue with mail-in ballots from abroad not sent out in time? TBF, this was from RT though, so clearly "russian propaganda." They just broadcast their own pretty funny, hard-trolling election results coverage.
Excellent! Hard to hack.
But not impossible, as the video from Georgia in 2020 showed.