Schrödinger's Ceasefire
Last night did not quite usher in the feared Energy Apocalypse.
At the eleventh hour, the United States and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire. This ceasefire was said to comprise an immediate two-week pause in hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pending peace negotiations between Iran and the United States. Unfortunately it is nearly impossible to write anything about this ceasefire because most of what one might say about it is disputed and it appears to be crumbling as I type.
On Truth Social, Trump announced that a ten-point proposal from Iran had become “a workable basis” for negotiations during the ceasefire. Iranian media rapidly published the maximalist demands of this proposal, which include war reparations, an acceptance of the Iranian uranium enrichment programme and the withdrawal of U.S. soldiers from the Middle East. Soon, however, a “U.S. official” told the press that “The document being reported by media outlets is not the working framework.” Thus we do not know what is being negotiated at all, at least not right now; and what is more, CNN is now reporting that no formal written terms underpin the present ceasefire.
According to Pakistan, the ceasefire originally applied to Israeli hostilities against Lebanon, but Israel swiftly denied this and U.S. President Donald Trump has since confirmed that “Because of Hezbollah they [Lebanon] were not included in the deal.” This appears to be an effort to smooth things over with Israel, who were surprised and unhappy at the ceasefire announcement by the United States. Today has been the bloodiest day of the present Lebanon campaign, with Israel conducting airstrikes across the country.
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely impeded by Iranian forces. Ten ships passed through earlier today, and there is no hope normal Strait traffic will be restored immediately. Iran has also warned that “Any vessel trying to travel into the sea” without prior arrangement “will be targeted and destroyed.” Trump has allowed that Iran may continue to charge tolls for passage through the Strait “as a joint venture” with the United States.
Iran also continues to attack its Gulf neighbours and Israel, including a serious and successful drone assault on Kuwaiti energy facilities and desalination plants – the second such ominous attack since Monday. At least some of these strikes are retaliation for airstrikes by an unknown actor (perhaps the UAE) against Iranian oil facilities on Lavan Island. Iran has complained about ceasefire violations to Pakistan.
Right now, it looks a lot like the Americans have put down their weapons and joined the Iranians in declaring victory, while the Israelis redouble their efforts against Lebanon and Iran launches some of its most serious retaliatory missile and drone attacks since the war began. Maybe things will change soon.
UPDATE: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is threatening to scrap the ceasefire deal if Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon.
I had a longer post in the works but I deleted because everything is changing every five minutes and to be honest I think it is at least as likely not that full hostilities resume in a matter of days.
Ha yes. Wonderful title.
I will note that Trump is the only US President naturally suited to wrangling with Armenian rug merchants in the bazaar, so to speak. Sober analyses here probably do not apply.