105 Comments
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eugyppius's avatar

I had a longer post in the works but I deleted because everything is changing every five minutes and to be honest I think it is at least as likely not that full hostilities resume in a matter of days.

Pat Robinson's avatar

The fog of war.

Funny how with infinite sources of info in this connected world we don't really have the slightest idea what is going on.

Maybe the EU disinformation apparatus can clear it up for us?

Ernest Judd's avatar

We had our teeth cut with the CoronaPrank Media Industry Projection.

Thanks Eugyppius.

Joseph Little's avatar

Ha ha ha. "The Ministry of Truth!"

Ryan Gardner's avatar

There is one thing im certain of:

There is no way Trump actually thinks the Mullahs will honor this ceasefire.

If thats the case then you can be damn sure he has a plan.

Everything else can be be debated.

Ernest Judd's avatar

"There is no way Trump actually thinks the Mullahs will honor this ceasefire."

There is no way Trump actually thinks HE will honor this ceasefire. He can "plan" all he wants.

Iran has never lost any credibility defending themselves since 1979, and that is not debatable.

Ryan Gardner's avatar

Im not going to debate you because you are right.

Have you ever thought for a second outside the box that this really about China?

TUMP JUST DECLARED WAR ON CHINA

Nobody is calling this what it actually is.

50% tariff on ANY country supplying Iran weapons, effective immediately, no exceptions.

Sounds like an Iran policy. It's not.

Russia barely trades with the US. North Korea doesn't at all.

The only country this actually destroys is China.

China funneled $75 billion into Iran's war machine.

China sent AI intelligence on US carrier positions directly to Tehran.

5 Chinese ships were caught delivering missile fuel chemicals while the bombs were still falling.

The tariff isn't just 50%.

China is already at 145% from the ongoing trade war.

Add 50% on top. That's 195% total. On $500 billion in annual trade.

That's not a tariff. That's an economic execution.

Trump got a 14-day ceasefire with Iran yesterday.

It'll be over in 48 hrs. That ceasefire was never going to hold...and Trump knew it.

Iran was the cover story. This is the US-China economic war going to the next level.

Ernest Judd's avatar

U$A will not win.

The U$A?Israhell Epstein Class just want power/money.

The rest of the world want their sovereignty, and the Palestinians and Iranians are leading the way.

Blood and Soil defeats Money every time.

Ryan Gardner's avatar

I hope everyone gets their sovereignty back and America stays out of everyone's backyard. Until that happens the US doesn't really have its sovereignty.

If you're in Germany, another EU country or the UK i think you have less to worry about with America impeding your sovereignty than the dipshits running your country.

Bunker Bob's avatar

The biggest loser here is the EU. Maybe Ukraine..

Ernest Judd's avatar

Unfortunately, Canada is a limited suzerainty.

The imposition of the CoronaPrank sealed the limitations of Canada's sovereignty and revealed Canada for its fealty to the Global BORG project and to Zionism.

LMS's avatar

In a matter of minutes, love the title of this article

Gilgamech's avatar

I’m not convinced they ever stopped?

Andrew Marsh's avatar

More like a brief lull rather than a cessation.

Joseph Little's avatar

This seems like a good prediction (that full hostilities will resume).

Trump wants it to be that people do NOT know what he thinks, and do not know what he will do next. On both sides (well, all 15 sides).

Certainly this may have been a strategic pause by the US, to allow for new munitions to arrive, or something else to happen, eg, for the 2nd group of Marines to arrive.

We shall see.

One guess is that he wants it to be clear that the Iranian regime MUST change a lot more.

It is also apparent that either (i) Iran will break any deal made, or (ii) no one person in Iran has control, and can get the missiles and drones to stop. Control is too dispersed.

You can well expect that Trump thinks that these on again / off again pressures will cause the Iranian regime (whatever it is now) to crack. I strongly suspect that there are fissures.

It would be nice if they (the regime people) took the pause to fight and kill each other, to gain power.

But I do think these internal fights (however kinetic they become) give our Intel people a better idea of how the regime is working now (and also how it is NOT working).

"The better to eat you with, my dear!"

SCA's avatar

Ha yes. Wonderful title.

I will note that Trump is the only US President naturally suited to wrangling with Armenian rug merchants in the bazaar, so to speak. Sober analyses here probably do not apply.

Pat Robinson's avatar

Rug merchants, very apt. My experience in Istanbul and other places is that anyone who comes up to you on the street is looking to sell you a carpet. Everyone has a father/cousin/brother/uncle/son with a carpet shop.

Word to the wise

SCA's avatar

There's a reason certain expressions are universally and immediately understood.

And it's a good reminder that the Middle East, regardless of how anyone might try to convince anyone else otherwise, is one culture. It's really not many all in conflict. It's a bunch of cousins who all hate one another because they each insist that Grandpa loves 'em best.

Bunker Bob's avatar

And these are people whose families have been fighting each other for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. Probably over a carpet too.

Matthew McWilliams's avatar

This ceasefire never should have been announced. First of all, it is not clear that anyone is fully in charge in Iran at this point. Individual commanders in the field may continued to launch strikes regardless of any official cease fire. Those that are possibly in charge are apparently under the impression that they can somehow get Trump to capitulate, and will frame any concession on his part as capitulation.

No matter how one feels about this endeavor, or how it's going, the U.S. and Israel are in it now, and need to finish it in a way that leaves only the barest fig leaf for Iran at most. This includes the destruction of Iran's oil and energy infrastructure. As I noted before, Iran's ability to knock out all energy production across the middle east is uncertain. That they cannot impact other major producers is certain.

I've pointed out repeatedly over the years that one of the primary faults in western thinking is to assume that everyone is just like them. They are not. The current Iranian leadership cannot be treated like the representatives of average western governments. These people are not normal in the western sense. Therefore, they cannot be bargained with in the normal western sense.

If the IRGC commanders currently running Iran cannot be removed, then they cannot be left with anything with which to run Iran. It is really that simple. A negotiated settlement that leaves the current structure in place would be a failure.

Henrybowman's avatar

"This ceasefire never should have been announced."

Unless of course the aim was for the US to "virtue signal" that they had tried and tried to take the high road, but the enemy Just Wouldn't Keep Their Word.

Joseph Little's avatar

I think you are right.

Except that you seem to be sarcastic, and implying that this Iran regime (same as the old regime, but different) would SUDDENLY after decades become a reliable partner to negotiate with.

They will not keep their word. Are you suggesting otherwise?

If so, tell us why we should even entertain that idea for 5 mins.

Henrybowman's avatar

No, furthest thing from my mind. I'm aware they break agreements at a whim, and lie like rugs (and rug peddlers), and that's never going to change. But there's a partisan, complicit segment of the world that howls every time you proclaim that simple truth.

Another world-is-watching example of the truth of it, immediately before bombing them back to the 19th century, would have its own global PR value.

Competent thieves and raiders spend as much time planning a foolproof getaway as they do planning the intrusion. This might be part of that planning.

Efferous's avatar

Yep. I'm sick of my tax money being spent outside US borders, but that's irrelevant now. It's already been done. Now I want to see this finished permanently and quickly lest it become yet another Afghanistan.

Ernest Judd's avatar

Demand your Armed Forces to come home!

Fatmerica does not belong in West Asia, and never did,

or Venezuela, Europe, S Korea and Japan.

Decaf's avatar
4hEdited

I'm glad Trump moved forward without getting Israel on board with the ceasefire. They did not partner with us throughout but sought their own ends, so this will set some boundaries.

So let's see what happens next.

eugyppius's avatar

The risk right now is that the Lebanon bombardment brings down what remains of this arrangement. I get that the Israelis (and I guess the US following their lead) regard the Lebanese campaign as a totally separate theatre but the Iranians probably don't agree.

Matthew McWilliams's avatar

The current Iranian leadership will not agree to anything that doesn't look like a win for them and a capitulation by the U.S. They've surmised, probably correctly, that the U.S. does not have the intestinal fortitude to do what is necessary to remove them from power, or to incapacitate the Iranian economy. This is unfortunate. A hallmark of American military engagement since 1945 has been a) an over estimation of our enemies, and b) an under application of force. A rare exception to this was the first Iraq war, in which the U.S. Airforce carpet bombed Iraqi positions.

Henrybowman's avatar

"A hallmark of American military engagement since 1945 has been a) an over estimation of our enemies"

I would have gone the other way. It's always presented as a "week-long cakewalk" that turns into decades. Maduro has been the only raid that actually conformed to the promised pattern.

Ernest Judd's avatar

All Fatmerica has to do is leave West Asia, as well as Venezuela, Europe, S Korea and Japan.

Handsome Pristine Patriot's avatar

Well, Hezbollah is merely an IRGC proxy, so there is that.

Ernest Judd's avatar

You are merely an apologist for Fatmerica's behaviour.

"Tit for Tat", remember!

Decaf's avatar

I hope that that will be the moment that cues Trump to put his foot down again and decouple from Israel's seemingly blind mission to wreak all the destruction they can with us as cover.

Joseph Little's avatar

You speak as though there is a clear, reasonable, and agreed "agreement".

And that the Iranians, if just we (US/Israel) would behave ourselves, would actually support that agreement to the letter.

But those are hopeless assumptions.

Ex1: Iran is firing many missiles and drones, and almost NONE of that can be laid to the Lebanon fires by Israel.

There is no risk. There is no universe in which this non-agreement ceasefire would ever hold.

Although, out of this mess, we (esp Iran) may arrive at some clarity. Eg, they will NOT get to control Hormuz.

Henrybowman's avatar

Or there's the other interpretation -- that the US deliberately left both Lebanon and Israel out of the ceasefire accords so that Israel could poke the bear again as soon as the ceasefire went into effect. Questions of honor aside, I can appreciate the tactical advantages of doing this -- it makes Iran continue to look irrational and untrustworthy.

Hans VanderLugt's avatar

Hard to fault a country for focusing on its own interests when it’s being framed as a ‘one-bomb country’ by its enemies.

Decaf's avatar

From their point of view, I agree. But I don't see why we have to support every point of theirs. They can go their way in some things, as can we. It might be a good way to move forward in general.

Ernest Judd's avatar

First, the Collective Waste leave Iran alone.

All this is being projected from great distances, while the protagonists go overboard to entice local ethnicities to degrade themselves to proxies.

The eradication of Israhell is the most important action to lead the region back to detente.

The Perfidium really screwed it for everybody back in 1917.

Gilgamech's avatar

Yeah I am almost willing to credit the US with a 5D chess move here. Or at least, a hostage video. The blinks of of the hostage is telling us

“Israel… won’t… allow… peace”.

The US admin can’t say that outright, but Israel is extremely predictable and can be easily exposed into revealing that it is vehemently opposed to any form of de-escalation or actual ceasefire, let alone any peace agreement.

BARRY ISAACS's avatar

Of course anything can happen in this crazy, mixed-up world so it is indeed hard to venture anything definitive about what is going on and what is likely to happen. My guess though is that the US will not resume any hostilities, at least for the so called 2 week cease fire period and probably not after that. Iran is saying they are not happy that their proxies in Lebanon continue to get hammered by the Israelis and have therefore threatened to resume firing missiles upon Israel even though nothing in the pseudo 10-15 point secret plans specified that Lebanon equals Iran. But if they do that, they may be surprised that without the US pulling on the Israeli leash, the Israelis may actually carry out the program that the POTUS outlined would occur if the Strait of Hormuz did not allow international shipping to pass through which, at least, for now is still the case. It certainly would make sense for the Israelis to so economically cripple Iran that their and their allies ability to threaten Israel would be dramatically diminished. The Emperor Napoleon once responded to an inquiry regarding how he proceeded to undertake a military campaign with the reply "On s'engage et puis on voit." First you commit yourself and then one sees how things shake out'. The best laid plans often go awry after the first shot anyway but that does not mean that one stays out of the fray because of the uncertainty of the outcome. I think that is where we are right now, trying to figure out how things are shaking out.

Gilgamech's avatar

The mediator, the Pakistani PM, explicitly stated that the ceasefire includes Lebanon, in his announcement of the ceasefire. I can accept it’s possible Israel wasn’t consulted (as they claim) - the Trump admin is easily that incompetent. However the admin can be in no doubt whatsoever that the US agreed with Iran, via Pakistan, that a ceasefire in Lebanon was an explicit condition of the ceasefire. So the US is openly, blatantly and provably lying again. Just like Witkoff and Kushner did in the previous negotiations. The world sees it, even Israel sees it (hence their loud complaints). Only MAGA Boomers in their retirement villages believe the obvious lies of the US admin.

BARRY ISAACS's avatar

The POTUS and the Israeli PM say you are all wet.

Vivian Evans's avatar

That title is simply perfect!

Bash's avatar

There are a few truths to this situation

- the US wants out because they are the stewards of the global economy and trumps political future will not survive a hard recession

- the israelis and the gulf countries are net losers, but, the iranians are unable to inflict sufficient damage like they can do the gulf states. Ergo, Israel has no incentive to stop

- the americans are incapable of actually reigning them in, to the extent that they would militarily deny them support

The ceasefire will not survive long like this

Mac's avatar

You have no clue, none.

Ernest Judd's avatar

Stewards of the economy?

They are the weight behind Global Organized Crime!

James Schwartz's avatar

Trumps politcal future? He has none. He is in his second term. It’s done now.

Henrybowman's avatar

There's always the Supreme Court,

I'm kidding, he's an old man.

James Schwartz's avatar

Hard also not a lawyer. Lol Though I wouldn’t put it past him. Haha

Abner Knight's avatar

Someone help me with Warball scoring. If one is rooting for US/Israel, and US and Iran claim victory while Israel says defeat, is it called a draw?

Grape Soda's avatar

There’s nothing like war to remind us here in the US that we mere citizens lack any control over our government. We can do nothing but wait and see.

Sancho's avatar

I read a Substack post about how this "ceasefire" is simply a window in which Trump is maneuvering serious military assets into the region, and when and how they might be deployed. If that post is even half right, it seems clear Trump does not expect the ceasefire to lead to any meaningful peace negotiations. But as he might say, I don't want to have to do that, but I probably will. Me, I have no clue, and appreciate your continued analysis.

eugyppius's avatar

I think that is a serious possibility, that it is about gaining time to stage forces. But, if Iran just continues attacking in the meantime then it's unclear what the US gains by just standing down. Also Trump and administration officials spent this morning talking as if the war was basically over and you had Hegseth at a press conference declaring maximum victory. I get that misdirection is a thing but it's kind of odd to go out on a limb like that if hostilities are going to resume in a few weeks – discrediting at the very least. I don't know, I guess we'll see.

Sancho's avatar

Here's a link to that post:

https://substack.com/@charliepgarcia/note/c-239909606

Please delete if this somehow violates something. Just wanted to put it out there.

Henrybowman's avatar

A supremely clever headline requires a supremely clever lede photo:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GN9zBDSXUAAL2RU?format=jpg

Gilgamech's avatar

Per Reuters about 7 hours ago, the Straits never opened. About 5 hours ago the Iranian National Security Council stated that the Straits would not beopened and around four hours ago the IRGC Navy announced any unauthorised vessels trying to transit would be targeted and destroyed.

Gilgamech's avatar

About 4 hours ago, per WSJ, Iran advised the Pakistani mediators that Iran will not be going to Islamabad to negotiate unless and until the ceasefire includes Lebanon.

Mac's avatar

What is known today is the entire Iranian regime that exsisted on March 1st 2026 is dead, clergy dead, the Iranian Navy, Airforce personnel and equipment destroyed, the IRGC crippled, the Nuclear facilities decimated, the Intelligence apparatus & warning systems destroyed, military focused infrastructure destroyed. But if Bagdad Bob's cousin Ali Bob is saying Iran is victorious over their imaginary foe The Great Satan I suggest one take their words with a grain of salt.

America is likely negotiating with a few who'd like to see the sun come up tomorrow.

No one wanted this war but 47 years of Iranian (directly or indirectly invovled) violence against the US, Isreal (Oct 7th) and others and with enough enriched uranium to create a nuke that could reach the USA, Israel, neighbors and the EU on missle's capable of further distances they lied about having it was time to bring the Iranian regime to its knees.

The world has changed for the better elimanating a suicidal regime.

Thankfully America and Israel have leaders with big balls. 🇺🇸🇮🇱

Ernest Judd's avatar

The U$A/Israhell Epstein class has never had any business in the Persian Gulf. Those GCC countries are as good as fake, their leaders do not support their people.

The U$A itself is collapsing, as its citizens materialist fortunes decline everyday, their spiritual fortunes greatly impoverished being led by a Death Cult.

"The world has changed for the better elimanating a suicidal regime."

"Thankfully America and Israel have leaders with big balls"

What balls? World's leading "Tranny Nations" instead!

Good bye U$A/Israhell!

Adrasteia's avatar

No they won't. The whole concept of negotiating with Iran is a farce. Iran "negotiating" means lying, buying time, and continuing its attacks, which it is already doing. We broke a lot of stuff, but I don't see that we are anywhere that we have not already been in almost fifty years.

Ernest Judd's avatar

Iran has remained stationary and has not ventured to North America to prosecute similar terrorism, like the U$A. Iran has no imperialistic ambitions like Fatmerica.

Fatmerica, or U$A/Israhell Epstein Class do not understand individual nations sovereignty.

Therefore, this imperialistic behaviour continues, and gets more odious each day.

Clay's avatar

The Americans negotiating a peace that opens the strait would be welcome. Hopefully Israel doesn't kill the Iranian negotiator. If such a peace decouples the US from Israel, so much the better.

Mac's avatar

Whats your problem with Israel ?

Clay's avatar

Their belligerence far exceeds their weight. Which would be fine, they can behave however they want, but the Americans have protected them from the consequences of that behaviour. Either through direct military action, such as Iran and Iraq, or with American tax dollars to fund or supply its weapons Were that not the case, they would need to be far more temperate with the larger, more populous nations that are in its neighbourhood.

Mac's avatar

belligerence ? LOFL !

Ernest Judd's avatar

Israel has no right to exist.

It was merely a gentleman's agreement between Lord Balfour and Zio-Kike representatives.

The "Balfour Declaration" had no ascent from HoC, nor from the Royal Office.

Ernest Judd's avatar

Neutralize Fatmerica's ability to wage war, then NEGOTIATIONS!

The U$A/Israhell Epstein Class has no credibility, integrity, agreement capability, morals, ethics, values... what is redeemable from this inhuman co-operation?

Fatmericans must leave West Asia; the Occupiers of Palestine... not so good luck.

Ernest Judd's avatar

You know nothing of me; I know nothing of you... FAGGOT.

Are you also an acolyte of Lindsay Graham?

Clay's avatar

Who in their right mind would go to war with the US with the end goal of disarming the strongest military on the planet? Don't be daft.

Ernest Judd's avatar

The U$A will do it because their only spoken option is trying to kill everybody!

Everybody will not want that: 7.8 billion vs. 0.35 billion... sounds fair, eh?

Now I can guarantee the U$A will not be a military factor by 2030:

West Asia wants them out; Eurotrash want them out; N and S Korea are embracing peace and reunification diplomacy; China and Taiwan are also.

Speaking, not firing ordinances at each other.

Make it catch on.

Clay's avatar

You're funny, I like you.