The ascendancy of more transmissible (and possibly also more pathogenic) Delta strains is a consequence of the worldwide vaccination campaign. This is now the most salient and the most important side-effect of our vaccines. They elicit antibodies that select for more aggressive SARS-2 lineages, which escape vaccine-induced immunity by replicating in the lungs of infected people faster and earlier.
Terrific writing here with a great mix of technical information supporting the author's rational analysis. This article definitely highlights that the "smart" people making the decisions are totally evil or totally incompetent. Initially, I gave them a pass for being uninformed and in a data collection mode. That all changed when Fauci openly admitted that he misled ( you can't handle the truth strategy) people on the % that needed to be vaccinated for herd immunity and masks don't work but now they do, etc my evil doer detection senses starting kicking in. I am in my early 60s and recovered from covid and am having my antibody levels tested every three to four months despite my Dr trying to give me the hard sell using the CDC talking points at my last appointment. The harder this vaccine strategy gets pushed by governments without, the higher my evil doer detection meter moves. PS - Almost everyone can handle the truth, they just need to be presented with it.
Kevin, one point on your regular antibody level testing: my understanding (I'm not a biologist) is that antibodies show short-term immunity only. Long-term immunity resides in memory B and T cells, which can rapidly regenerate antibodies when needed. So even if your antibody tests go to zero, that doesn't mean you've lost natural immunity. eugyppius can probably explain this better. :-)
Funny you mention this. I met with my doctor on Tuesday. Interesting discussion but he still is pushing the vax and noted that my antibody level dropped from 10 to 6 over the past three months. He indicated that as we face another "wave" due to seasonality, that I might want to consider getting the vaccine around mid-December. No mention of the protection provided by the "memory" portion of the immune system. I tried to clumsily guide the discussion in that direction but with no luck. Sad that the only sources for such important information is on substack and that so few care enough to search for information so they can make informed decisions/
Been reading / watching videos around the problem with seed oils in our diets it's toxic effect on humans and other monogastric animals (chickens, pigs, house pets). Lots of evidence that the toxic consequences of too much linoleic acid is directly linked to the rise in chronic illnesses, including those that are comorbidities for Corona mortalities.
Okay, so here's an interesting fact, Israel has the highest per capita ingestion of seed oils. Wouldn't be surprised where Corona is raging there would be a graph that would match perfectly with that populations ingestion of seed oils versus saturated fats (suet, tallow, lard). (Nursing homes, hospitals and schools in US dietary guidelines mandate use of excess vegetable oils - which is so evident by just looking at both the residents and staff and their levels of ill health.)
Some very smart people are not explicitly connecting these dots (for obvious reasons) but for those interested, there a numerous videos on the topic with Tucker Goodrich, Brad Marshall, Paul Mason MD, Chris Knobbe MD, Peter Dobromylskyj DVM.
Something to consider as ad adjunct to minimizing Corona infection or injection adverse effects.
Thank you for that. I'm very ready to believe it. Run my household without any oils. I use tallow is all. (except for popcorn. I can't find a natural fat so we use a tiny bit of peanut oil for making popcorn. I would use ghee but the kids don't like the taste. perhaps if I made a better ghee they would).
Yes. Sad that instead of any mention of changing one's fat ingestion source, they are looking for medication to treat a dietary induced complication.
Sometimes I think we are living in giant "Darwin's Award" contest where most don't realize that the "winning" and "losing" rewards are opposite than expected.
Thanks to writers such as Eugyppus and Berenson and Geraghty, and a few others who have sidestepped legacy media's roadblocks, the average person is fast becoming much more educated about the science of Covid; in a sense, the great divide is now between the informed and the willfully ignorant.
Once you begin to learn, the gap opens with others who simply will not do their homework and think. It's not a matter of agreeing with certain views; it's a matter of not allowing CNN to do your thinking for you. What one quickly learns is that the power structures do NOT appreciate independent research, discussion, thinking. Thus the vaccine mandates (outsourced to "private" company cut-outs), doctors being de-licensed (one today here in OR), social media blackouts, military pressure, etc.
But there are, thanks to technology, workarounds. They will endure long after the legacy media finds a different dog to chase. That's possibly the greatest positive in this whole sorry episode.
I don't know where there is any real evidence that delta is more pathogenic, which I think is part of the fearmongering. Death rates are lower, including unvaccinated. Personally (50+) I had it in late July in the US (close 100% delta at that point) and it was like a normal cold. I have actually had worse colds. Same for my wife. Both unvaccinated. My young kids did not have symptoms. A further anecdote is that some acquaintances who traveled to Europe (we traveled to the US) at the same time were both freshly AZ vaccinated (over 14+ days) and the couple, who are younger, both got worse cases where they were out of commission for a month and were taking various drugs like antibiotics to treat it. Their kids, same age, did not have symptoms either.
Some people definitely know it. The whole Yeh/Contreras paper reads like an attempt to smuggle this information into the discourse under vaxx-friendly cover. But a lot of decision makers are also really stupid and live in weird information bubbles.
Great mix of technically specific information with well reasoned presentation. Excellent writing. Very refreshing to see there are still a few literate souls out there.
There is no reason to think that covid 19 vaccines will go out of style any time soon; media/social/government pressure is immence and the convenience afforded by conformity and obedience is irresistable.
Thank you for your insights, as well as your willingness to answer questions here. I’m one of those who found you after Alex Berenson quoted you.
It is astonishing to me that these ‘vaccines’ have been handed out as if they are candy despite known concerns such as what you describe.
I do have a question. My understanding is that the Delta variant you discuss was originally called the Indian variant from its country of origin. However despite (because?) very few people there have been vaccinated even as of now, the cases and mortality began declining in mid May in perfectly symmetrical pattern. Deaths have gone from a seven day average of 4642 to 323 per day.
Assuming this data to be reasonably accurate, does this support or undermine your hypothesis?
It’s in line with this argument, and in fact the Teh / Contreras paper also looks at India and finds a similar selection effect (declining genetic diversity, followed by case spike) which however happened at much lower total vaccination levels. Perhaps Delta did not need as much of a push in India as it did in the west. More effective, longer-lasting natural immunity against infection would then be why cases remain low there. Estimates are that maybe 60% or more of the population has been infected.
I think in July the natural immunity in India was 68% based on very extensive data from antibody investigations in several states. So in April when delta started there was natural immunity in the 50% range? So it is the same effect as having ~50% of the population vaccinated? But it must also make a difference if you use very "leaky" vaccines like in India and the UK, i.e. AZ and other second choice vaccines, or is the evolution the same over time given the 4-5 month effectiveness of Pfizer?
I also wonder if what we are seeing now is due to delta being resistant to vaccines or more to do with time elapsed after peak vaccination as in Israel. I think more to do with the latter. Delta outcompeted alpha rather than the vaccines successfully shutting down alpha.
If it’s just waning vaxx, why genetic evidence for positive selection in the surviving Delta strains?
I think these are essentially escape strains, that escape the vaxx at least in part by being more virulent. Look at Iceland: Recently vaxxed tourists go to UK, pick up Delta and being it back, infected at basically the same rates as the unvaxxed.
Vaccine protection obviously also waves over time, ofc, not disputing that.
I guess it is a combined effect. I think you also make an important point that there is not just one delta strain. The dumbed down media propaganda treats it as one strain. Are there any studies on how delta is evolving? Has anyone looked at the evolution of OC43 coronavirus, for example? I don't think so because it is not a topic of interest.
After reading both that and this post, I am still not understanding how vaccines that are non-sterilizing create evolutionary pressure for ever more virulent strains to emerge.
I can understand how they can make vaccinated people ’superspreaders’ because they may become infected and carry a high viral load yet have their symptoms suppressed thanks to the vaccine. This would result in increased transmission and hasten eventual herd immunity, but not reduce the virus itself.
Rushworth makes the comparison to bacteria, I could add ’superweeds’ that are resistant to Roundup, but in each case there is something that kills most but not all of the bacteria or weeds, allowing the resistant survivors to thrive.
But that isn’t how these vaccines work. I would appreciate any comments you might have.
But the short answer, is it looks like more virulent strains can actually be disadvantaged in some or many scenarios. For example, if the more virulent strains causes you to develop unpleasant symptoms before you can spread it very far, it may do less well than less virulent strains, which keep you out and about with nothing but a mild sneeze, infecting many people. More virulent Mareks Disease strains in unvaccinated chickens kill them too fast, before they can spread very much.
But introduce leaky vaccines. Now the more virulent strain, which pre-vaccination would have sent you home and put you in bed, causes only a mild sneeze, and you're spreading much more virus. The less virulent strains are outcompeted. In Mareks Disease, the vaccinated chickens tolerate the more virulent strains far better, live longer and spread them more.
So this means the more virulent is less virulent in the vaccinated - because they're vaccinated - and so they stay alive and spread it? That's what's going on?
Which makes it even more imperative for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated?
When they become people who stay alive while a more virulent...
And so the virulence rises....
And everyone takes more vaccines...
And more vaccines....
Until when?
It sounds like an escalation going on forever.
But it is not, is it?
There is a limit.
Because vaccines do nothing. Do they?
They stimulate the immune system to do something.
The limit is when an immune system is fully stimulated. It can do no more.
In fact a fully stimulated immune system further provoked can turn on the body itself.
Right?
So where are we at?
The virus itself stimulates the immune system.
We panic because we're frightened and try to diminish adverse events.
So we stimulate the immune system ahead of time.
And get to this.
It's all about stimulating, challenging, burdening, the immune system.
Poor bloody immune system. Given no help at all.
Completely ignored. All the plaudits, accolades to 'the vaccines'.
What's needed is to simply help the immune system, is it not?
With adequate levels of all significant factors: D, C, Zinc.
With anxiety diminishing factors: company of friend and family.
With feelings of positivity and empowerment: early home treatment.
With positive anti-virals: ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine.
With true knowledge of real danger: 99.86% chance of NO problem.
With true knowledge of benefit gained from early stimulus of immune system: 0.1%
From 99.86% safety to 99.96% safety.
With escaping from cowering in darkened homes and muzzling and fearing and stimulating a poor immune system into collapse.
You know what? Just ordinary sensible life minus all the politicians and all the vaccines and plus all normal healthy things: would return orders of magnitude more benefit.
wouldn't it be likely that an unvaccinated person would know they are sick, they would have some serious issues, flu like. But those who are vaccinated apparently can have high viral loads but remain symptomless, spreading the virus around, hurting those whose immune systems are already weak, the elderly, obese, etc.
Yes, I think that's what dr malone refers to as the mechanism by which vaccinating in the middle of an epedemic actually promotes the growth of 'super bugs'. For a more virulent mutation which normally would die out because killing people, you know, standard theory/mechanism, is able to persist and multiply amongst the vaccinated who feel few effects.
Is there not also something to be said for the fact that virulence and lethality in viruses are inversely proportional to each other, because of where each strain ends up sitting in the respiratory system?
You can find the whole theory explained on https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/. Dr. Vanden Bossche tried to warn the world for this potential scenario as a result of mass-vaccination during the peak of a pandemic.
Recent publicly available data is showing an overall significantly higher ratio of vaccinated deaths to vaccinated cases than unvaccinated deaths to unvaccinated cases. This would contradict the belief that the vaccine protects against severe outcome.
I am also increasingly sceptical that the vaccines protect all that well against severe outcome, but case data in general isn't to be trusted anymore, for the simple fact that the vaccinated are most everywhere less likely to be tested than the unvaccinated.
Isn’t that the most important scam of all scams after all? We are basing everything at a starting point that is false since they have intentionally made it protocol to not test the vaccinated or to lower the tests to 28 for them in contrast to the 40 or 45 that the unvaccinated are tested at. All of this feels so hopeless because those of us thinking like we do, are in the minority. How are we going to stop this perpetual cycle of virus if they don’t stop pretending that more shots will end it?
Are the flu vaccines leaky? If that's the case, does it not suggest from our long experience with those that the impact of the covid vaccines is likely to be modest? And a second thought - if the paper you cite is correct and the vaccines have put pressure on the virus and lead to Delta's dominance and far less variability, would things improve once a vaccine specifically formulated to Delta arrives?
Flu vaccines, more than being leaky, are just massively ineffective and probably don't place much selective pressure on influenza either way. That said, other leaky vaccines in animals don't seem to have this virulence-promoting effect. It's not fully understood why it arises in some cases and not others.
The question, I guess, is whether we think Delta is fully optimised (transmission or virulence-wise), or whether SARS-2 has room to get worse.
Very early on I was saying to one of my kids that the worst aspect of SAR-S is that it showed how fearful people are. It gave them an excuse to put their fear on display. So from that perspective I sure hope that SAR-2 doesn't have room to get worse because it already seems like the world has lost its ever loving mind. Sometimes I think pitchforks and torches aren't far behind, and as a medieval monk I'm sure you're already well acquainted with that phenomenon.
As for the flu, I agree with you that they seem to be massively ineffective. I'd love to know if there are any scholarly studies that have looked at the impact of flu vaccines on worldwide populations. For instance, have expected deaths from flu declined on average before the advent of widespread flu vaccine compared to after their introduction? And that question is in sync with my biggest takeaway from your piece, which is that the death rates in low and high vax jurisdictions look to be the same, and thus your conclusion that the covid vaccines (of which there is a long list) also are massively ineffective.
The essay already answers this: Delta variant mutation always existed. Vaccine #1 selected for the variant that could most effectively get around the vaccine-induced defences.
<Next dominant variant mutation> already exists. Vaccine #2 (aimed squarely but also VERY narrowly) at Delta variant selects for ... <Next dominant variant mutation> that can most effectively get around the Delta vaccine-induced defences.
Your answer is not clear to me at all. The essay cites the paper that indicates mutations and variations have greatly decreased, this decrease correlating with the use of all the covid vaccines proliferating around the world. So fewer variations. Current vaccines designed for wild/lab type original virus, and delta becoming dominant now. So if the vaccines have screened the virus into more limited variation, then you design a vaccine specifically for that more limited variation how will it result in immunity escape if that rate of mutations has been suppressed? The logic is not at all clear to me.
But really, that's not my main question. My main question is about the flu vaccines. I presume they are also leaky (but I don't know that for sure). They've been in use a long time. I'm not at all convinced flu vaccines have made things better overall (the same way eugyppius makes the point that the various covid vaccines haven't changed the death rates when comparing low vax areas with high vax areas) but they don't seem to have resulted in a superflu either. And if that gloomy scenario hasn't happened with the flu, what's different to make one reasonaby expect it will happen with this coronavirus? That's my main question.
It looks like a big part of Delta escape is not so much antigenic drift /(antibody evasion, as getting a jump on immune response by replicating more aggressively, earlier. If that's right, then Delta-specific boosters would just select for the most aggressive Delta strains.
But there are other considerations too: Right now, the biggest obstacle to SARS-2 is antibodies to legacy (pre-alpha) spike. These fade to nothing about 20 weeks after vaccination. The virus is still constrained by a lot of younger vaccinations, but these constraints are easing every day.
Then we attack a subpopulation with Delta-specific boosters. These call up some old antibodies to legacy spike, and they elicit new Delta antibodies. Possible scenarios: New weird variants emerge that borrow some old legacy-spike features (now that those are no longer as heavily punished) and that double down on Delta immune-escape features. Totally different non-Delta mutant lineage with similar aggression is favoured.
Or something else I haven't thought of. Because the vaccines don't produce lasting protection against infection. I guess, ultimately, I'm not convinced we can just chase SARS-2 around until it's exhausted all of its escape possibilities.
I'm definitely not trying to convince you we can chase SAR-2 around until it's exhausted all of its escape possibilities. In fact I lean the other way. I was just trying to clarify that particular aspect of what you wrote because if the vaccines are herding the virus into less variability then logically it would seem to become more vulnerable. But I really doubt that. Anyway, thanks for responding.
So you jut ignore that the main benefit of the vaccines is strengthening memory T and B cells that reduce severe disease and death. Of course, also, that delta dominated where vaccination is barely prevalent. And finally, the countervailing simple math that with more infections (minus vaccinations) more problematic variants are more likely to arise.
Excellent. What do you think the future holds for that VERY immunologically naive country in the South Pacific where almost none of the population has had any exposure? How could they safely open up? What should individual citizens do to protect themselves before/ when their immune systems finally get exposed likely early to mid next year?
they should up yesterday and try to develop natural immunity as soon as possible. right now, these nefarious effects seem to be fairly slight. we've maybe made delta 10% more transmissible than prior pre-alpha lineages. and while some sketchy data says it's more pathogenic, there are other reasons to think it's far less pathogenic. so it's not yet all that bad, but it could get bad if we keep doubling down on stupid policies.
I think the way out of that is reversion to the basic facts: it simply is not so bad. Especially for the young and healthy. The very naive countries will be able to handle it the way they've handled every one of our viruses our tourists have brought them.
Especially if they use medicines. Which we, of course, are constrained not to do.
Citizens should get their Vit D level up to where it should be, their zinc and magnesium. Should refrain from sugars and excess carbohyrates. Get the weight off. Get some exercise. Get in good spirits via interaction with family and friends and via a feeling of national fellowship and empowerment - we are all in this together, it's not so bad, nothing we haven't met before and we can handle it.
Much to be preferred over cowering at home and walking out masked (when permitted out) with all medications banned and even speech about the possibility of such banned.
And realism: some true numbers. Every year so many of us die. They either go of this or they go of that. But they go.
And if we're an unhealthy nation we are going to go in larger numbers whenever/whatever the strain when it comes on.
Excellent post! I am a new subscriber and throughly enjoy your rational and logical approach to vaccines and covid, refreshing and to the point! I am wondering if you have come across any data regarding those of us who were not included in any of the early clinical trials...having a autoimmune disease (R.A.)that is in remission due to Enbrel. There is some reporting that biologics such as; Enbrel may actually help suppress the cytokine storm. I’ve not taken the jab, there’s just no information available. I’m 62 in good health otherwise, antibody test was negative and this strikes me as a double edged sword no matter what I choose to do.
Sorry, I don't know of any specific data that would help. Official statistics of course show the vaccines as a good benefit-risk payoff for you. It may not be an enormous comfort that Enbrel suppresses cytokine storms, as this will be a problem primarily if you already have a severe case.
You say Delta is more transmissible. Yet the UK stats show the Secondary Attack Rate among household members is not higher for Delta. Can this data be reconciled?
...adding, I perhaps see your point now in Table 6: they put the household secondary attack rate of Gamma, for example, higher than Delta (10.7% vs. 10.4%). but there's very few Gamma cases, so the real attack rate of Gamma is uncertain. That's why its confidence interval is so large. Delta probably has a higher secondary attack rate, and Gamma only seems to be doing better because there's more noise in the data.
All of that said, the increased transmissibility of Delta has surely been exaggerated, in order to make the case for mass vaccination. maybe it's 8-12% more transmissible than pre-alpha strains.
Thanks. I find that UK data interesting because the USA constantly uses "Delta is so much more tranmissible" as an excuse for vaccine failure. The UK data would seem to indicate that's simply not true, and would instead suggest it's mass vaccination that's the real problem. By the way, we have two more heavily vaxed island nations - Bermuda and Guam -- that have recently had record Covid waves shortly after mass vaccination campaigns.
Terrific writing here with a great mix of technical information supporting the author's rational analysis. This article definitely highlights that the "smart" people making the decisions are totally evil or totally incompetent. Initially, I gave them a pass for being uninformed and in a data collection mode. That all changed when Fauci openly admitted that he misled ( you can't handle the truth strategy) people on the % that needed to be vaccinated for herd immunity and masks don't work but now they do, etc my evil doer detection senses starting kicking in. I am in my early 60s and recovered from covid and am having my antibody levels tested every three to four months despite my Dr trying to give me the hard sell using the CDC talking points at my last appointment. The harder this vaccine strategy gets pushed by governments without, the higher my evil doer detection meter moves. PS - Almost everyone can handle the truth, they just need to be presented with it.
The truth doesn’t serve the liars in power.
Kevin, one point on your regular antibody level testing: my understanding (I'm not a biologist) is that antibodies show short-term immunity only. Long-term immunity resides in memory B and T cells, which can rapidly regenerate antibodies when needed. So even if your antibody tests go to zero, that doesn't mean you've lost natural immunity. eugyppius can probably explain this better. :-)
Funny you mention this. I met with my doctor on Tuesday. Interesting discussion but he still is pushing the vax and noted that my antibody level dropped from 10 to 6 over the past three months. He indicated that as we face another "wave" due to seasonality, that I might want to consider getting the vaccine around mid-December. No mention of the protection provided by the "memory" portion of the immune system. I tried to clumsily guide the discussion in that direction but with no luck. Sad that the only sources for such important information is on substack and that so few care enough to search for information so they can make informed decisions/
Been reading / watching videos around the problem with seed oils in our diets it's toxic effect on humans and other monogastric animals (chickens, pigs, house pets). Lots of evidence that the toxic consequences of too much linoleic acid is directly linked to the rise in chronic illnesses, including those that are comorbidities for Corona mortalities.
Okay, so here's an interesting fact, Israel has the highest per capita ingestion of seed oils. Wouldn't be surprised where Corona is raging there would be a graph that would match perfectly with that populations ingestion of seed oils versus saturated fats (suet, tallow, lard). (Nursing homes, hospitals and schools in US dietary guidelines mandate use of excess vegetable oils - which is so evident by just looking at both the residents and staff and their levels of ill health.)
Some very smart people are not explicitly connecting these dots (for obvious reasons) but for those interested, there a numerous videos on the topic with Tucker Goodrich, Brad Marshall, Paul Mason MD, Chris Knobbe MD, Peter Dobromylskyj DVM.
Something to consider as ad adjunct to minimizing Corona infection or injection adverse effects.
Thank you for that. I'm very ready to believe it. Run my household without any oils. I use tallow is all. (except for popcorn. I can't find a natural fat so we use a tiny bit of peanut oil for making popcorn. I would use ghee but the kids don't like the taste. perhaps if I made a better ghee they would).
Coconut oil works great for popcorn, and it's very highly saturated.
Some studies backing what you are saying:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8605795/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8674324/
https://www.gastrojournal.org/article/S0016-5085(20)34727-2/fulltext
https://www.outsourcing-pharma.com/Article/2020/08/17/Study-points-toward-potential-COVID-19-treatment (Blocking inflammatory seed oil metabolites (leukotrienes) as treatment)
Yes. Sad that instead of any mention of changing one's fat ingestion source, they are looking for medication to treat a dietary induced complication.
Sometimes I think we are living in giant "Darwin's Award" contest where most don't realize that the "winning" and "losing" rewards are opposite than expected.
Once again, thank you for the nice work. It is extremely difficult to find such unbiased analysis on CV19 and the vaccines. Please keep it coming!
Thanks to writers such as Eugyppus and Berenson and Geraghty, and a few others who have sidestepped legacy media's roadblocks, the average person is fast becoming much more educated about the science of Covid; in a sense, the great divide is now between the informed and the willfully ignorant.
Once you begin to learn, the gap opens with others who simply will not do their homework and think. It's not a matter of agreeing with certain views; it's a matter of not allowing CNN to do your thinking for you. What one quickly learns is that the power structures do NOT appreciate independent research, discussion, thinking. Thus the vaccine mandates (outsourced to "private" company cut-outs), doctors being de-licensed (one today here in OR), social media blackouts, military pressure, etc.
But there are, thanks to technology, workarounds. They will endure long after the legacy media finds a different dog to chase. That's possibly the greatest positive in this whole sorry episode.
thank you Mr. Cheverton
Keep up the good work!
I don't know where there is any real evidence that delta is more pathogenic, which I think is part of the fearmongering. Death rates are lower, including unvaccinated. Personally (50+) I had it in late July in the US (close 100% delta at that point) and it was like a normal cold. I have actually had worse colds. Same for my wife. Both unvaccinated. My young kids did not have symptoms. A further anecdote is that some acquaintances who traveled to Europe (we traveled to the US) at the same time were both freshly AZ vaccinated (over 14+ days) and the couple, who are younger, both got worse cases where they were out of commission for a month and were taking various drugs like antibiotics to treat it. Their kids, same age, did not have symptoms either.
agreed, trying to be tentative here. even higher transmissibility is much exaggerated.
Authorities have to know this. When can a reasonable human assume this is no longer about profit but war?
Some people definitely know it. The whole Yeh/Contreras paper reads like an attempt to smuggle this information into the discourse under vaxx-friendly cover. But a lot of decision makers are also really stupid and live in weird information bubbles.
Definitely prepare for war. If it is to be war it will soon be upon us.
It is already upon us and has been for a while. Unfortunately, one side has yet to realize it en masse.
Great mix of technically specific information with well reasoned presentation. Excellent writing. Very refreshing to see there are still a few literate souls out there.
Literate, and devoted to reason rather than superstition or showmanship.
There is no reason to think that covid 19 vaccines will go out of style any time soon; media/social/government pressure is immence and the convenience afforded by conformity and obedience is irresistable.
Thank you for your insights, as well as your willingness to answer questions here. I’m one of those who found you after Alex Berenson quoted you.
It is astonishing to me that these ‘vaccines’ have been handed out as if they are candy despite known concerns such as what you describe.
I do have a question. My understanding is that the Delta variant you discuss was originally called the Indian variant from its country of origin. However despite (because?) very few people there have been vaccinated even as of now, the cases and mortality began declining in mid May in perfectly symmetrical pattern. Deaths have gone from a seven day average of 4642 to 323 per day.
Assuming this data to be reasonably accurate, does this support or undermine your hypothesis?
It’s in line with this argument, and in fact the Teh / Contreras paper also looks at India and finds a similar selection effect (declining genetic diversity, followed by case spike) which however happened at much lower total vaccination levels. Perhaps Delta did not need as much of a push in India as it did in the west. More effective, longer-lasting natural immunity against infection would then be why cases remain low there. Estimates are that maybe 60% or more of the population has been infected.
I think in July the natural immunity in India was 68% based on very extensive data from antibody investigations in several states. So in April when delta started there was natural immunity in the 50% range? So it is the same effect as having ~50% of the population vaccinated? But it must also make a difference if you use very "leaky" vaccines like in India and the UK, i.e. AZ and other second choice vaccines, or is the evolution the same over time given the 4-5 month effectiveness of Pfizer?
I also wonder if what we are seeing now is due to delta being resistant to vaccines or more to do with time elapsed after peak vaccination as in Israel. I think more to do with the latter. Delta outcompeted alpha rather than the vaccines successfully shutting down alpha.
If it’s just waning vaxx, why genetic evidence for positive selection in the surviving Delta strains?
I think these are essentially escape strains, that escape the vaxx at least in part by being more virulent. Look at Iceland: Recently vaxxed tourists go to UK, pick up Delta and being it back, infected at basically the same rates as the unvaxxed.
Vaccine protection obviously also waves over time, ofc, not disputing that.
wanes* over time, I meant
I guess it is a combined effect. I think you also make an important point that there is not just one delta strain. The dumbed down media propaganda treats it as one strain. Are there any studies on how delta is evolving? Has anyone looked at the evolution of OC43 coronavirus, for example? I don't think so because it is not a topic of interest.
I agree with this idea
Thank you.
A doctor name Sebastian Rushworth has made a similar point:
https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/09/23/a-reflection-on-covid-mania/
After reading both that and this post, I am still not understanding how vaccines that are non-sterilizing create evolutionary pressure for ever more virulent strains to emerge.
I can understand how they can make vaccinated people ’superspreaders’ because they may become infected and carry a high viral load yet have their symptoms suppressed thanks to the vaccine. This would result in increased transmission and hasten eventual herd immunity, but not reduce the virus itself.
Rushworth makes the comparison to bacteria, I could add ’superweeds’ that are resistant to Roundup, but in each case there is something that kills most but not all of the bacteria or weeds, allowing the resistant survivors to thrive.
But that isn’t how these vaccines work. I would appreciate any comments you might have.
The effect is well documented in chickens. I wrote about it here: https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/the-marek-effect
But the short answer, is it looks like more virulent strains can actually be disadvantaged in some or many scenarios. For example, if the more virulent strains causes you to develop unpleasant symptoms before you can spread it very far, it may do less well than less virulent strains, which keep you out and about with nothing but a mild sneeze, infecting many people. More virulent Mareks Disease strains in unvaccinated chickens kill them too fast, before they can spread very much.
But introduce leaky vaccines. Now the more virulent strain, which pre-vaccination would have sent you home and put you in bed, causes only a mild sneeze, and you're spreading much more virus. The less virulent strains are outcompeted. In Mareks Disease, the vaccinated chickens tolerate the more virulent strains far better, live longer and spread them more.
So this means the more virulent is less virulent in the vaccinated - because they're vaccinated - and so they stay alive and spread it? That's what's going on?
Which makes it even more imperative for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated?
When they become people who stay alive while a more virulent...
And so the virulence rises....
And everyone takes more vaccines...
And more vaccines....
Until when?
It sounds like an escalation going on forever.
But it is not, is it?
There is a limit.
Because vaccines do nothing. Do they?
They stimulate the immune system to do something.
The limit is when an immune system is fully stimulated. It can do no more.
In fact a fully stimulated immune system further provoked can turn on the body itself.
Right?
So where are we at?
The virus itself stimulates the immune system.
We panic because we're frightened and try to diminish adverse events.
So we stimulate the immune system ahead of time.
And get to this.
It's all about stimulating, challenging, burdening, the immune system.
Poor bloody immune system. Given no help at all.
Completely ignored. All the plaudits, accolades to 'the vaccines'.
What's needed is to simply help the immune system, is it not?
With adequate levels of all significant factors: D, C, Zinc.
With anxiety diminishing factors: company of friend and family.
With feelings of positivity and empowerment: early home treatment.
With positive anti-virals: ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine.
With true knowledge of real danger: 99.86% chance of NO problem.
With true knowledge of benefit gained from early stimulus of immune system: 0.1%
From 99.86% safety to 99.96% safety.
With escaping from cowering in darkened homes and muzzling and fearing and stimulating a poor immune system into collapse.
You know what? Just ordinary sensible life minus all the politicians and all the vaccines and plus all normal healthy things: would return orders of magnitude more benefit.
Common Sense for the win!
There's a lot of evidence that vaccinated people are infectious for a significantly shorter period of time (and less infectious).
It's amazing how you uniformly ignore any evidence that runs counter to your pet theory.
wouldn't it be likely that an unvaccinated person would know they are sick, they would have some serious issues, flu like. But those who are vaccinated apparently can have high viral loads but remain symptomless, spreading the virus around, hurting those whose immune systems are already weak, the elderly, obese, etc.
Yes, I think that's what dr malone refers to as the mechanism by which vaccinating in the middle of an epedemic actually promotes the growth of 'super bugs'. For a more virulent mutation which normally would die out because killing people, you know, standard theory/mechanism, is able to persist and multiply amongst the vaccinated who feel few effects.
Exactly as you say. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeBbN5XSUKg
Yes. Seems to me that would make sense. Might well counterbalance that they're infectious for a shorter period of time.
Is there not also something to be said for the fact that virulence and lethality in viruses are inversely proportional to each other, because of where each strain ends up sitting in the respiratory system?
You can find the whole theory explained on https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/. Dr. Vanden Bossche tried to warn the world for this potential scenario as a result of mass-vaccination during the peak of a pandemic.
Recent publicly available data is showing an overall significantly higher ratio of vaccinated deaths to vaccinated cases than unvaccinated deaths to unvaccinated cases. This would contradict the belief that the vaccine protects against severe outcome.
I am also increasingly sceptical that the vaccines protect all that well against severe outcome, but case data in general isn't to be trusted anymore, for the simple fact that the vaccinated are most everywhere less likely to be tested than the unvaccinated.
Isn’t that the most important scam of all scams after all? We are basing everything at a starting point that is false since they have intentionally made it protocol to not test the vaccinated or to lower the tests to 28 for them in contrast to the 40 or 45 that the unvaccinated are tested at. All of this feels so hopeless because those of us thinking like we do, are in the minority. How are we going to stop this perpetual cycle of virus if they don’t stop pretending that more shots will end it?
Lucid and informative. Thank you for the post.
Are the flu vaccines leaky? If that's the case, does it not suggest from our long experience with those that the impact of the covid vaccines is likely to be modest? And a second thought - if the paper you cite is correct and the vaccines have put pressure on the virus and lead to Delta's dominance and far less variability, would things improve once a vaccine specifically formulated to Delta arrives?
Flu vaccines, more than being leaky, are just massively ineffective and probably don't place much selective pressure on influenza either way. That said, other leaky vaccines in animals don't seem to have this virulence-promoting effect. It's not fully understood why it arises in some cases and not others.
The question, I guess, is whether we think Delta is fully optimised (transmission or virulence-wise), or whether SARS-2 has room to get worse.
Very early on I was saying to one of my kids that the worst aspect of SAR-S is that it showed how fearful people are. It gave them an excuse to put their fear on display. So from that perspective I sure hope that SAR-2 doesn't have room to get worse because it already seems like the world has lost its ever loving mind. Sometimes I think pitchforks and torches aren't far behind, and as a medieval monk I'm sure you're already well acquainted with that phenomenon.
As for the flu, I agree with you that they seem to be massively ineffective. I'd love to know if there are any scholarly studies that have looked at the impact of flu vaccines on worldwide populations. For instance, have expected deaths from flu declined on average before the advent of widespread flu vaccine compared to after their introduction? And that question is in sync with my biggest takeaway from your piece, which is that the death rates in low and high vax jurisdictions look to be the same, and thus your conclusion that the covid vaccines (of which there is a long list) also are massively ineffective.
The essay already answers this: Delta variant mutation always existed. Vaccine #1 selected for the variant that could most effectively get around the vaccine-induced defences.
<Next dominant variant mutation> already exists. Vaccine #2 (aimed squarely but also VERY narrowly) at Delta variant selects for ... <Next dominant variant mutation> that can most effectively get around the Delta vaccine-induced defences.
Your answer is not clear to me at all. The essay cites the paper that indicates mutations and variations have greatly decreased, this decrease correlating with the use of all the covid vaccines proliferating around the world. So fewer variations. Current vaccines designed for wild/lab type original virus, and delta becoming dominant now. So if the vaccines have screened the virus into more limited variation, then you design a vaccine specifically for that more limited variation how will it result in immunity escape if that rate of mutations has been suppressed? The logic is not at all clear to me.
But really, that's not my main question. My main question is about the flu vaccines. I presume they are also leaky (but I don't know that for sure). They've been in use a long time. I'm not at all convinced flu vaccines have made things better overall (the same way eugyppius makes the point that the various covid vaccines haven't changed the death rates when comparing low vax areas with high vax areas) but they don't seem to have resulted in a superflu either. And if that gloomy scenario hasn't happened with the flu, what's different to make one reasonaby expect it will happen with this coronavirus? That's my main question.
It looks like a big part of Delta escape is not so much antigenic drift /(antibody evasion, as getting a jump on immune response by replicating more aggressively, earlier. If that's right, then Delta-specific boosters would just select for the most aggressive Delta strains.
But there are other considerations too: Right now, the biggest obstacle to SARS-2 is antibodies to legacy (pre-alpha) spike. These fade to nothing about 20 weeks after vaccination. The virus is still constrained by a lot of younger vaccinations, but these constraints are easing every day.
Then we attack a subpopulation with Delta-specific boosters. These call up some old antibodies to legacy spike, and they elicit new Delta antibodies. Possible scenarios: New weird variants emerge that borrow some old legacy-spike features (now that those are no longer as heavily punished) and that double down on Delta immune-escape features. Totally different non-Delta mutant lineage with similar aggression is favoured.
Or something else I haven't thought of. Because the vaccines don't produce lasting protection against infection. I guess, ultimately, I'm not convinced we can just chase SARS-2 around until it's exhausted all of its escape possibilities.
I'm definitely not trying to convince you we can chase SAR-2 around until it's exhausted all of its escape possibilities. In fact I lean the other way. I was just trying to clarify that particular aspect of what you wrote because if the vaccines are herding the virus into less variability then logically it would seem to become more vulnerable. But I really doubt that. Anyway, thanks for responding.
So you jut ignore that the main benefit of the vaccines is strengthening memory T and B cells that reduce severe disease and death. Of course, also, that delta dominated where vaccination is barely prevalent. And finally, the countervailing simple math that with more infections (minus vaccinations) more problematic variants are more likely to arise.
Excellent. What do you think the future holds for that VERY immunologically naive country in the South Pacific where almost none of the population has had any exposure? How could they safely open up? What should individual citizens do to protect themselves before/ when their immune systems finally get exposed likely early to mid next year?
they should up yesterday and try to develop natural immunity as soon as possible. right now, these nefarious effects seem to be fairly slight. we've maybe made delta 10% more transmissible than prior pre-alpha lineages. and while some sketchy data says it's more pathogenic, there are other reasons to think it's far less pathogenic. so it's not yet all that bad, but it could get bad if we keep doubling down on stupid policies.
p.s. and get some ivermection and hydroxychloroquine - any and all of what Dr Kory's FLCCC recommends and other such authoritative sources.
I think the way out of that is reversion to the basic facts: it simply is not so bad. Especially for the young and healthy. The very naive countries will be able to handle it the way they've handled every one of our viruses our tourists have brought them.
Especially if they use medicines. Which we, of course, are constrained not to do.
Citizens should get their Vit D level up to where it should be, their zinc and magnesium. Should refrain from sugars and excess carbohyrates. Get the weight off. Get some exercise. Get in good spirits via interaction with family and friends and via a feeling of national fellowship and empowerment - we are all in this together, it's not so bad, nothing we haven't met before and we can handle it.
Much to be preferred over cowering at home and walking out masked (when permitted out) with all medications banned and even speech about the possibility of such banned.
And realism: some true numbers. Every year so many of us die. They either go of this or they go of that. But they go.
And if we're an unhealthy nation we are going to go in larger numbers whenever/whatever the strain when it comes on.
Excellent post! I am a new subscriber and throughly enjoy your rational and logical approach to vaccines and covid, refreshing and to the point! I am wondering if you have come across any data regarding those of us who were not included in any of the early clinical trials...having a autoimmune disease (R.A.)that is in remission due to Enbrel. There is some reporting that biologics such as; Enbrel may actually help suppress the cytokine storm. I’ve not taken the jab, there’s just no information available. I’m 62 in good health otherwise, antibody test was negative and this strikes me as a double edged sword no matter what I choose to do.
Sorry, I don't know of any specific data that would help. Official statistics of course show the vaccines as a good benefit-risk payoff for you. It may not be an enormous comfort that Enbrel suppresses cytokine storms, as this will be a problem primarily if you already have a severe case.
You say Delta is more transmissible. Yet the UK stats show the Secondary Attack Rate among household members is not higher for Delta. Can this data be reconciled?
looking at figure 12 in 17 September VoC report (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1018547/Technical_Briefing_23_21_09_16.pdf): I see a somewhat better secondary attack rate for Delta than Alpha, though it's decayed substantially, now at the point Alpha was at in April. deleterious mutations accumulate over time and hurt its transmissibility.
...adding, I perhaps see your point now in Table 6: they put the household secondary attack rate of Gamma, for example, higher than Delta (10.7% vs. 10.4%). but there's very few Gamma cases, so the real attack rate of Gamma is uncertain. That's why its confidence interval is so large. Delta probably has a higher secondary attack rate, and Gamma only seems to be doing better because there's more noise in the data.
All of that said, the increased transmissibility of Delta has surely been exaggerated, in order to make the case for mass vaccination. maybe it's 8-12% more transmissible than pre-alpha strains.
Thanks. I find that UK data interesting because the USA constantly uses "Delta is so much more tranmissible" as an excuse for vaccine failure. The UK data would seem to indicate that's simply not true, and would instead suggest it's mass vaccination that's the real problem. By the way, we have two more heavily vaxed island nations - Bermuda and Guam -- that have recently had record Covid waves shortly after mass vaccination campaigns.
agreed