Poorly targeted vaccination gives rise to statistics that overstate vaccine efficacy, driving the vaccinators to engage in more poorly targeted vaccination.
C19 deaths necessarily follow cases. According to Geert Vanden Bossche, you need a big healthy unvaccinated population who can weather the virus and recover to break the chain of transmission. When you don't have enough of these people, transmission is high and the case curve oscillates at a high level. IMO, if these jabs damage one's ability to mount durable cellular immunity...this could go on for a long, long time. This is exactly what we see in the UK case curve.
The UK is now dealing with Delta Plus, which has two of the four mutations required to completely escape vaxx immunity. What will happen then?
I have checked the detailed all cause mortality German stats. Of particular interest are the weeks 15-40. Significant excess mortality. About 3-4% higher than 2020 for all age categories
I have the following thought:
- The more people you vaccinate, the more predominant delta becomes.
- Vaccines are less effective against delta.
- So the vaccines for the elderly become less and less effective when the young are vaccinated.
- If people under, let's say 65, is not vaccinated, won't be alfa dominant? In that case when the virus finds an old folk it will probably be alfa, and the guy can deal with it.
Keep in mind the law of Campbell: The more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.
In my words: Politics is opinion not facts, science is the opposite, you can't have both.
Remember though that Germany is essentially one wave behind the UK - our first noticeable death peak was in Winter 2020/21, not April 2020. This is one of the big problems with spot comparisons, as tempting as they are, between places today, or November xth this year with last year. Everywhere is out of synch and we don't know what the trigger for an infection wave is, people are just hunting around for anything, schools opening, holidaymakers coming back, because they need an explanation to latch on to.
The absence of a death wave in Germany this winter could well mean good news for vaccine efficacy. Unfortunately, whether we avoid noteworthy deaths (vaccine works so everyone must keep getting it) or not (here comes lockdown year 3) the authorities have ready ammunition to justify their unfalsifiable excuses for further restrictions, mandates, etc.
Dosing the young and thus increasing the cases in the young will cause more COVID spread in society, resulting in increased infection and ultimately death of the 0.5% sensitive unvaccinated that needed protection in the first place, ironically "proving" that the sensitive group should have been vaccinated, meaning we should all be vaccinated and continue booster vaccinations, forever, so that the problem continues, forever.
Boosters all around, let's finish off the unvaccinated old timers!!--(proposed new Pfizer slogan???)
Excellent as usual. The writing is on the wall for the vaccines, despite governments doubling down.
Wall Street Journal. "The Ottawa Senators Have a 100% Vaccination Rate—and 40% of the Team Has Tested Positive for Covid"
Yes! Thank you, this crystalises an issue I have had running through my head all day..
Why are the public so often presented the statistics of cases along the binary lines of vaccinated/unvaccinated? Sure, it seems logical coming off of a massive vaccination campaign. But of course, it simply aligns with public authorities single-minded approach to the pandemic, ie. vaccinate to break the waves and/or flatten the curves. And yet AGE remains THE leading predictor of hospitalisation/death, followed by various obesity, diabetes and various co-morbities.
I am regularly confronted by colleagues or media telling me about a pandemic of the unvaccinated and if only more people would get vaccinated we could relieve the pressure from the healthcare system. So I spent some of the afternoon trying to get my head around the local statistics provided by the health department for Bayern at https://www.lgl.bayern.de/gesundheit/infektionsschutz/infektionskrankheiten_a_z/coronavirus/karte_coronavirus/index.htm
To my mind the statistics mislead through omission, ie. because of the data they neglect to show. For example, they list the statewide incidence value for whole population, and break it down by vaccinated/unvaccinated, which makes the vaccinated look very good. (Note, there is also something very funny about the breakdown because the cases calculated using those incidences do not sum to the total number of cases - somehow 30% of new reported cases are neither allocated to vaccinated nor unvaccinated??? leaving the vaccinated incidence suspiciously low)
They also (helpfully) list the incidence value for the >60s but unhelpfully don't quantify those cases. So, they have both data points (Age, Vax-status) but they don't combine them. Again, they list the incidence values for hospitalisations in the same way: Total, vaccinated, unvaccinated, >60s, but fail to combine the data points. Curiously (or not, depending on your appetite for conspiracy) they do not provide any breakdown of the intensive care cases.
Like I said, I calculated the actual case numbers for the various categories using publicly available population data and vaccination rates data. In Bayern only 17 % of new reported cases were in the over 60s group and yet they account for 71% of the hospitalisations! Judging by intensive care data for the whole of Germany, there is a similar percentage >60s in ICU. Now, if (as is widely claimed) the unvaccinated are disproporrtionately represented in the ICU, yet only 15% of the over 60s are unvaccinated, we are talking about a really small subgroup having a really lopsided effect on ICU cases.
Reducing the incidenc of cases in the over 60s has the greatest affect in reducing ICU pressures. Trying to alleviate pressure on the hospitals by introducing 2G or increasing leaky vaccination down through the lower age groups is idiotic as it suffers from diminishing returns. The numbers needed to vaccinate in the lower ages in order to keep one person out of hospital or intensive care are orders of magnitude higher than for the older age groups.
Again, thank you so much for this clarifying post!
Florida chose the policy you suggest here, campaigning primarily for the senior population. They are now among the lowest case rates in the US. But that could also be, as you suggested in the past, due to weather conditions. Sweden would be a better data comparison - how many deaths per million do they see?
Hello Eugyppius - thank you for the work you are doing here. Question: there is a view that Israel is the prime example of how a 3rd and 4th dose can take cases (and apparently deaths) to near 0. Held up as a shining example of team "pro-booster", example Eric Topol. Any thoughts on how this ties into your view re the dangers on boosters? Any reflection is appreciated by the community here as well. Thank you again.
Well, my SIL is one of those. In theory, the gene therapy might make sense for her against Covid.
But she is a) living a rather reclusive life b) hypersensitive to and afraid of any drugs and vaccines (her other daughter also became mentally handicapped thanks to the smallpox vaccine, with the doctors back then swiping it under the table, of course)- she would likely die of fear, if there was a vaxx mandate, even if she got a placebo instead. The crooked doctors in Germany won't write her an exemption, although we will certainly explore that further with AfA ones, if the currently discussed Impfpflicht were to become true.
And on top of that, you don't mention the 2 big elephants in the room that she is also now aware of:
1. the gunk doesn't do much against Delta, and Delta is what's floating around
2. the side effect and mortality risk of the gene therapies is huge, severe and massively underreported.
Practically every vaxxed person in her family and circle of friends got infected afterwards anyway and was quite sick after being needled, often for months, quite a few also got very severe illnesses from strokes, thrombosis, Parkinsons, even a fatal heart attack. Everyone of them is denying causation and correlation, of course but not her, neither do we, and such anecdotal personal evidence weighs most heavily for most people.
On top of that, the only 2 people she/we know who had to be hospitalised due to Covid over the last 18 months were also very severely obese, which neither she nor we are.
So, in short, I would never try to talk her or anyone else out of getting it beyond sharing my general reservations, but I certainly think that even she can and should take her chances, which she has consciously decided to do on her own.
And I am pretty sure that most of the other hesitant 15% in that age group made an informed and calculated decision as such too.
A much more informed one than that of the 85% who got it, that is for sure.
Interestingly, what finally turned her off completely were the free Bratwurst offerings...
Isn't the high mortality rate in the UK during their first wave due to Midazolam use?
As I see it, politicians are rewarded for doing something, anything, even if doing something is the wrong course of action. Being patient and waiting is not easy for anyone, least of all a politician. And they are often condemned for not acting or in this case they would be condemned for not offering the vaccine to the young and scared. Secondly, they are rewarded for short-term, not long-term results. Doing the right thing for their populations that will only be realized after they are out of office is difficult for them to justify, since they earn no immediate political goodwill from it. So there is a natural incentive to focus on the gains of even a leaky vaccine. Lastly, it isn’t easy for anyone, much less a politician, to admit they were wrong.
Bottom line, if our leaders refuse to course correct, the pandemic will be without end and it may even get worse. What will it take for a single leader to have the courage to deviate from the vaccinate / boost everyone in perpetuity agenda?
Really good points. And vaccine efficacy and rate of adverse events should be reported by narrow age ranges so that people can make applicable informed decisions. Now, if only leaders around the world would read your article and return to some semblance of sanity. I keep hoping that politicians will stop putting political power ahead of all of the harms they are doing to societies.
“German mortality is more or less identical to that seen last year”—this surprises me when all-cause mortality has spiked worldwide since the rollout (https://tobyrogers.substack.com/p/allcausemortality) 🤔
Good read and analysis. I may be wrong, but I am still left with skepticism that the vaccine actually reduces death (all cause mortality) and severe symptoms. It seems to me that the elderly/high risk that are more likely to be receiving the vaccine are in a different health care structure...that they are more likely to be in quality senior care facilities, which would put them in a better care situation. They are watched daily and have the other health issues monitored much more closely. In most, if not all, senior care systems it's a requirement to be vaxed to be in the system. The elderly that are in less desirable care situations (living alone) are less likely to be vaxed and also less likely to be having their other health care issues treated. It seems to me that these are entirely different groups of people.